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Fantasy Football Mailbag 2016 – Week 1

It’s Thursday, there’s football tonight, and you have a lineup (or 3) that you need to set.

breesus-sideline

Thank goodness, Fantasy Football is back.

Look at the NFL, starting the new season where they left off last year. NBC’s Thursday Night Football will premiere with a Super Bowl 50 rematch between the Panthers and defending champion Broncos. Both teams return with stout defenses. One will have Cam Newton under center. The other will have…

Trevor Siemian.

The Broncos make Siemian the first Northwestern quarterback to start the regular season since Otto Graham. Siemian beat out Mark Sanchez and 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch. He also inherits an offense from sure-fire Hall of Famer Peyton Manning that includes Pro Bowlers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on the outside, and CJ Anderson at tailback.

It’s hard to tell how the wide receivers will fair with the 7th rounder at quarterback. He won the job by not turning the ball over and managing the preseason games fairly well. Key term: Managed. Anderson and rookie backup running back Devontae Booker will likely get plenty of touches, but you can’t expect Siemian to beat the Panthers defense with his arm. Carolina can still fly to the ball, even without Josh Norman.

Quick Hits

  • It wasn’t far-fetched to draft Jamaal Charles in the 2nd round, especially when his ceiling is that of a Top 5 back. If you were smart though (owning JC or not), you picked up Spencer Ware when Andy Reid mentioned his #1 RB wasn’t going to be ready for the start of the season. When handed the ball 10 times or more, Ware averaged 95.3 yards and 1.3 touchdowns rushing in 2015. He also faces a Chargers defense that gave up nearly as many rushing yards and touchdowns in the league.

spencer-ware

 

  • The people who told you that Alfred Morris would be a viable Fantasy pickup were sorely mistaken. Ezekiel Elliott was drafted 4th overall for a reason, and that’s to be the Cowboys’ bell cow. Even as a rookie, Elliott was expected to get a ton of touches with Tony Romo at the helm. With another rookie taking snaps, expect him to be depended on even more…especially in 3rd down situations.

  • Antonio Brown was the consensus #1 pick in just about every league. He may not be the #1 WR to start the season though. Julio Jones was near historic in 2015, recording 136 catches and 1,871. Sunday, Jones will face the team he has terrorized the most in his 5-year career. He has averaged 116 yards and 7 catches per game against Tampa Bay, scoring 6 touchdowns over the 9 games he’s played them.

julio-jones-week-1

 

Mail Time!

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You know Jared Goff is inactive this week, right? He ended the preseason 3rd on the Rams’ depth chart. I hope you didn’t draft him. So Dak Prescott…Yeah. Dak.

 

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It seems like a lot of people forget that Carson Palmer is coming off the best season of his career, throwing 4,671 yards, 35 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. The 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles in the NFC title game against the Panthers may have something to do with that, but he isn’t playing against Carolina this weekend. I understand the temptation to go with Matt Stafford but his set of weapons aren’t nearly as proven as Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and David Johnson combined. Go with Palmer against New England. Arizona will hope to capitalize on the mistakes of young Jimmy Garoppolo.

 

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This is a fun one, and I’m surprised you were so trusting of so many rookies. Michael Thomas is realistically the 3rd option in New Orleans against a pretty decent Raiders defense. I like Sterling Shepard a lot and the opportunities he can get while Odell Beckham Jr. is double covered, but I don’t see him being the star against Dallas. Then that leaves us with Will Fuller, who is facing an already banged up Bears secondary. The Houston Texans have opportunity to feast on an ariel assault this Sunday, with Kyle Fuller likely out and Tracey Porter returning from injury in the preseason. Go with the the Notre Dame burner, Fuller, who can take the top off most NFL defenses.

 

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Matt Ryan has too much he needs to show before I start him over Palmer. I already went into depth, regarding Palmer’s weapons so plan on starting him. Julio Jones will get his numbers, but I still need to see more from his new complimentary receivers. Vernon Hargreaves could also pose a threat, as the rookie had allowed a QB Rating of ZERO in the preseason.

 

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I know, people LOVE Marvin Jones paired with Matt Stafford. I just don’t understand why. Jones never topped 100 yards in 2015 and scored just 4 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Golden Tate has proven to be a target machine (sans Calvin Johnson as well) and Michael Crabtree actually had a statistically better year than Amari Cooper last season. There is shootout potential between the Saints and Raiders, and you’ll benefit greatly from starting Crabtree in that scenario.

 

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This may sound crazy…

I have trouble picking Cam Newton against the Denver defense. I know he has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s Super Bowl, but Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is going to throw the kitchen sink at him. Newton will still score some, either by air or ground. You should feel more comfortable with Ben Roethlisberger against a Washington defense that ranked in the bottom 3rd against passing yards and touchdowns a year ago.

And now for #DancingWade…

wade-phillips-dance

Have more Fantasy lineup questions? Don’t hesitate to ask on Facebook or Twitter. 

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What’s Next For Both Matt Forte and Chicago Bears

Running back Matt Forte informed fans Friday morning that his time in Chicago has come to an end. He posted a photo and a nice message to Bears fans stating that the Bears plan to move forward without him.

Shortly after, Bears GM Ryan Pace released a statement on the team’s decision and what Forte has meant to the organization.

Pace isn’t wrong about Forte, especially as an all-timer. Forte ranks 2nd in franchise history in both career rushing yards and receptions. Walter Payton is the only player ahead of him in both categories.

This isn’t a shocker though. The writing was on the wall for Forte once he started splitting touches with rookie running back Jeremy Langford. When Langford had an opportunity to start while Forte was injured for 2 games, he proved to be more than capable of being a lead back. Langford totaled 145 rush yards, 179 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in back-to-back wins against the Chargers and Rams. The Bears are also in a position where they need to dedicate resources toward improving other positions on the field, mostly on defense and along the offensive line. So what’s next for both the player and the team?

Forte may be 30 years old, but he’s still a very good, #1 quality back. He can give a team competing for a championship next season an upgrade in not just rushing, but also receiving and blocking as well. Forte’s strength has always been in between the 20s, although he has recorded 10+ touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 seasons. One would think he would be better suited on a team paired with a back who has a nose for the end zone, which makes the New England Patriots very attractive.

Bill Belichick should be licking his lips at the prospect of landing a multi-tooled running back with a history of endurance. The Patriots are already committed to Dion Lewis for 2 more years, but just for $2 million in base salary. They’ll be looking to replace LeGarratte Blount for 1st and 2nd down carries anyway and Forte gives Brady an excellent option in the passing game, where the Patriots thrive. Lewis is proven to have a nose for the end zone and would compliment Forte nicely when they threaten to score.

Other teams to consider as landing spots for Forte:

Carolina Panthers – Jonathan Stewart is already in their backfield, with 3 years left on his deal, but he hasn’t played a full 16 game schedule since 2011 when he wasn’t the starter. Cam Newton almost counts as another running back, but I’m sure the Panthers would rather preserve their MVP franchise quarterback. Forte gives the Panthers the receiving dynamic that Stewart doesn’t really possess.

Denver Broncos – The Broncos are very likely entering the post-Peyton era. Whether Brock Osweiler is the quarterback or someone else, the Broncos offense needs a dependable back who can catch the ball. CJ Anderson bounced back strong down the stretch, Ronnie Hillman was meh, and Forte would be a great upgrade over both for a team wanting to stay competitive after winning the Super Bowl.

Dallas Cowboys – Darren McFadden was okay, but the Cowboys won just 2 games with him as the full-time back in 2015. Tony Romo is going to need someone to keep him alive all season long too if Dallas wants to compete in 2016. That means a running back who can block and catch, and also keep defenses on their heels. McFadden and Forte could make for a formidable duo behind one of the best offensive lines in football as well, which would be reassuring in the event Romo gets broken again.

Meanwhile, Langford should be getting first crack as the Bears starting running back. His game is very similar to Forte’s, as he can run, catch and block, but he also has breakaway speed that Forte always seemed to lack. They also appear to like Ka’Deem Carey for depth after he run much harder in 3rd down spots in his 2nd season with the Bears. A veteran on the cheap or a late draft pick would be valuable to provide competition and stability behind Langford. Keep in mind that John Fox loves using two running backs and giving the ball to the hot hand in games. See DeAngelo Williams & Deshaun Foster/Stewart with Carolina, then Knowshon Moreno & Ronnie Hillman/Montee Ball in Denver.

Free Agent RB options that make sense for Bears:

  • Chris Johnson (formerly Cardinals)
  • Bilal Powell (formerly Jets)
  • James Starks (formerly Packers
  • Matt Asiata (formerly Vikings)
  • Alfred Morris (formerly Washington)

Check back later for potential late round running backs the Bears could consider drafting. 

For more, follow along on Facebook or Twitter. 

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The Best Super Bowl 50 Commercials

If you are a big Broncos fan or really love defensive play, then you probably enjoyed the game. If not, well…at least we had the commercials.

I’m not sure there was one ad during last night’s Super Bowl broadcast on CBS that will go down as an all-time favorite, but there were some very good ones – Puppies, a meaningful PSA, Superheroes, two well placed songs, and a casting that probably was cooler to some than others.

At times, you wondered “They really paid $5 million for that?” Like that detergent that nobody’s heard of…or the F’ing PuppyMonkeyBaby. I’m good not spending my money on Mountain Dew for a long time. Was there really a Scientology ad too? Glad I didn’t notice that one.

When you’re forced to sit down and remember what stuck out to you the day after, these are the commercials that worked.

“Commander” Audi

For those of us who are still looking up at the stars to see if Bowie is winking back down at us, this ad was cool. Audi also chose to use my favorite song choice from Oscar-nominated “The Martian”, which I’ve listened to at least 3 times a week since seeing it in theaters.

 

“Ultrasound” Doritos

This may not have been as funny to expecting mothers as it was to me, but come on…Doritos picked a solid one from their annual Super Bowl ad contest. Considering I was a baby shower the day before, it tickled me a little more.

 

“Hulk vs. Ant-Man” Coca-Cola

It felt strange not seeing any polar bears from Coca-Cola this year, but like Bud Light pointed out early on…”everybody loves Paul Rudd.” Believe it or not, I thought this pop commercial was better than any of the Batman v. Superman trailers and teasers we’ve gotten so far.

 

“Wiener Stampede” Heinz

You can’t go wrong with puppies, and Heinz nailed it. If I had a Top 3, this is certainly in there.

 

“Give A Damn” Budweiser

Budweiser didn’t give their Clydesdales much air time in their previous ad (which was really dumb in its own right. Why waste money ripping craft beer when your company acquires those same brewers right and left?) However, Helen Mirren made up for all of that and then some giving a very necessary message with the right platform. Don’t drink and drive, dumbasses.

 

“Getaway Car” Toyota Prius

Two things make this commercial awesome, to me at least. 1. The Sobotka family from season 2 of The Wire (Chris Bauer, James Ransone and Pablo Schreiber) 2. in a Chicago “Blues Brothers”-like chase scene. They almost made driving a Prius look cool.

 

“Someone To Love” Honda

Queen in any ad works. Sheep singing one of their better ensemble songs and a “voice over” works even better. Also in my Top 3.

 

“The Walken Closet’ Kia

How could you not love Christopher Walken…”Punch it, Richard!” killed me in my recliner.

 

“Cranky Marilyn” Snickers

I hope Snickers never runs out of ideas on this campaign. Betty White playing football and Abe Vigoda (*skypoint*) getting decked a few years ago, Danny Trejo as Marsha Brady…Willem Dafoe isn’t quite on Christopher Walken’s, but he’s one of the best angry actors to ever put a dress on. I’ll stand by that hyperbole.

 

What were your favorite commercials from Super Bowl 50? Let me know on Facebook or Twitter! 

 

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NFL Bad Lip Reading 2016: Part II

“He’s weird, he’s weird, and HE’S WEIRD!”

 

Three days after “Part I” hit the interweb, Bad Lip Reading struck again with plenty of things Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, John Fox and others probably didn’t say…but we can imagine now.

Keep this in mind when you watch Peyton Manning and Cam Newton go at it this weekend in Super Bowl 50.

For more, follow along on Facebook or Twitter. 

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Super Bowl 50: Denver vs. Carolina – Everything But Football

By now, nearly storyline and angle for the Broncos and Panthers have been hashed out going into the Super Bowl. The Prop Bets are available to keep the non-football fan interested, which include wagers on things like how long Lady Gaga will sing the anthem, which song Coldplay will play first, and what color the Gatorade is that will be dumped on the winning coach. Even the commercials are getting leaked early (although I think that takes some of the fun out of it).

The Denver Post and The Charlotte Observer are also in on the game with their own friendly bets. If the Broncos win, the Post will receive “No. 1 IPA beer in the country” Hop, Drop and Roll (brewed in Charlotte) as well as some World Famous barbecue. If the Panthers win, the Observer will receive a broad selection of Colorado craft beer and bison steaks.

A tradition that we began here a year ago was to go beyond the teams playing the game, and compare the regions they’re from in EVERYTHING BUT FOOTBALL. Last year, New England had the edge over Seattle in our game here and eventually won the Big Game itself.

So for the fans (and newspapers) of each team, lets see how they stack up.

Music

From Denver

John Denver, Ginger Baker (drummer), Earth Wind & Fire, Flobots, The Fray, India.Arie, The Lumineers, Glenn Miller (Jazz), Neutral Milk Hotel, OneRepublic, Pretty Lights, Big Gigantic, Judy Collins, The String Cheese Incident, and Nathaniel Rateliff and the Night Sweats.

From Carolina

James Taylor, Tori Amos, George Clinton, K-Ci & JoJo, Anthony Hamilton, John Coltrane, Ben Folds, Petey Pablo, Fred Durst, The Avett Brothers and Ryan Adams.

The Edge – Carolina

This may be the toughest call, considering how subjective music is for everyone. However I’m taking quality over quantity here. Fred Durst and the EDM of Denver cancel each other out for things I’m good without. There are more pop acts in Denver, if The Fray and OneRepublic are your thing. Both regions bring the Funk with George Clinton and Earth Wind and Fire. But I’ll take the Carolina singer songwriters (Taylor, Adams and Folds) over John Denver *skypoint*.

Bonus Points too for my favorite school slow dance song ever, “All My Life” by K-Ci & JoJo.

TV

 

Set in Colorado

South Park, Community, Diagnosis: Murder, Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman, Nikita, Stargate SG-1, The Real World: Denver, The Man in the High Castle, Dynasty and Mork & Mindy. 

Set in Carolina

East Bound and Down, Dawson’s Creek, The Famous Jett Jackson, One Tree Hill, The Andy Griffith Show.  

The Edge: Denver

There isn’t too much programming set in either region. Community and East Bound and Down duke it out pretty well for comedies. I do love Andy Griffith and that whistling will be stuck in my head for the rest of the month, but 19 seasons of South Park is too many to pass on. Sorry, One Tree Hill fans. 

Movies

 

Set in Colorado

The A-Team, About Schmidt, Aliens vs. Predators: Requieum, Beerfest, The Big Short, Blades of Glory, City Slickers, Cliffhanger, Interstellar, Misery, Phantoms, The Prestige, The Shining, Stargate, WarGames, and Dumb and Dumber

 

Set in Carolina

Cape Fear, Carrie, Cold Mountain, The Descent, I Know What You Did Last Summer, Kiss The Girls, Maximum Overdrive, Pitch Perfect, Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, Tin Cup, A Walk To Remember, and Bull Durham.

The Edge: Denver

Carolina makes a case with solid Kevin Costner sports movies. But Denver has two amazing Christopher Nolan films (Interstellar and The Prestige) the better Stephen King horror flick between The Shining and Carrie…and Dumb and Dumber. 

Food

From Denver

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From Carolina

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The Edge: Carolina

It was a tough call, but I drooled the most researching all that southern comfort awesomeness. 

Landmarks/Sights

In Denver

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In Carolina

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The Edge: Carolina

Both seem perfect if you love the outdoors. I think if you love skiing/snowboarding and weed, you’ll probably lean toward Denver. The idea of mountains, beaches, and some college sports staples have me wanting to visit Carolina first. Red Rocks is a hard venue to pass up though.

Craft Beer

In Denver (327 Craft Brewers)

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In Carolina (151 Craft Brewers)

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The Edge: Denver

This one is depends on your tastebuds, but I’ve always been partial to Colorado beer. Carolina seems to be on its way though.

Sports (other than football)

In Denver

  • Colorado Avalanche
  • Colorado Rockies
  • Denver Nuggets
  • Colorado Buffaloes 
  • Colorado State Rams

In Carolina

  • Carolina Hurricanes
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Duke Blue Devils
  • North Carolina Tar Heels
  • North Carolina State Wolfpack

The Edge: Carolina

The two Stanley Cups won by the Colorado Avalanche are admirable, but 12 Men’s Basketball National Championships won by Duke (5), North Carolina (5), and North Carolina State (2) are a bit more impressive…

…plus the fact that state produced the greatest player in NBA history. 

Michael Carolina

 

Final Score

 

Denver –   3

Carolina – 4

 

Who has the edge, in your opinion?

Let me know what you think on Facebook or Twitter! 

Big thank you to Dago Cordova, Mike Kvackay, Jennifer Witkowski and Donald Moenning for help with firsthand research. 

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Full List of Super Bowl 50 Prop Bets

DID YOU KNOW…

That the first official prop bet was whether or not William “The Refrigerator” Perry would would score a touchdown in Super Bowl XX?

Well…

William Perry TD

He did.

The “Prop Bets” have become an awesome tradition each year for both the heavy and light gamblers. It’s fun betting on how long the anthem will be sung and what color the Gatorade being poured will be. Then you account the circumstances surrounding star players, storylines, celebrities and halftime show performers, and you have yourself a fun Super Bowl party game.

So…

Y’all ready for this? 

The full list of prop bets from Bovada!

ENTERTAINMENT ODDS AND ENDS

Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the postgame interview?

Yes      +500  (5/1)

No        -1000 (1/10)

(Note: Must be on live broadcast.)

Will Peyton Manning be seen crying at any point during the entire broadcast?

Yes      +600  (6/1)

No        -1200 (1/12)

(Note: Live pictures only, must clearly see a tear.)

How many times will “dab” or “dabbing” be said by the announcers during the broadcast?

Over     2          (EVEN, 1/1)      

Under   2          (-140, 5/7)        

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

How many times will Cam Newton do the Open Shirt Superman motion during the game?

Over     2.5        (EVEN, 1/1)      

Under   2.5        (-140, 5/7)        

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

If Steph Curry is shown on TV during the broadcast what will he be wearing?

Personalized Carolina Steph Curry Jersey           1/1

No Jersey                         2/1

Cam Newton Jersey                         3/1

Any Other Carolina Jersey                         5/1

Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge?

Yes      +110 (11/10)

No        -150 (2/3)

(Note: He must be consulted on live broadcast and must clearly take a stance on his position. If not consulted wagers will be No Action.)

Will there be an earthquake during the game?

Yes      10/1

(Note: Announcer must indicate there was during live broadcast from kickoff until final whistle.)

Will the Panthers player who scores their first TD give the football to a boy or girl?

Boy      -200 (1/2)

Girl       +150 (3/2)

How many times will the Golden Gate Bridge be shown during the broadcast?

Over     0.5        -300 (1/3)

Under   0.5        +200 (2/1)

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

How many times will “John Fox” be said during the broadcast?

Over     1          (-140, 5/7)

Under   1          (EVEN, 1/1)

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the broadcast?

Over     1.5        EVEN (1/1)

Under   1.5        -140    (5/7)

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

How many times will John Elway be shown on TV during broadcast?

Over     2.5        EVEN (1/1)

Under   2.5        -140    (5/7)

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

Will the announcers mention that Kubiak was Elway’s backup during the broadcast?

Yes      +120 (6/5)

No        -160 (5/8)

(Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count.)

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?

Orange             5/4

Blue                 3/1

Clear                4/1

Yellow              4/1

Red                   6/1

Green               10/1

Purple              10/1

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first?

God                            2/1

Team                         2/1

City/Fans                   6/1

Coach                         15/2

Family                        15/1

Does not Mention Anyone above           9/4

Which song will Coldplay play first during the halftime show?

Adventure of a Lifetime           2/1

Fix You                                      7/2

A Sky Full of Stars                    9/2

Viva la Vida                               5/1

Clocks                                       15/2

Speed of Sound                        9/1

Head Full of Dreams                10/1

Paradise                                    10/1

What color will Beyonce’s footwear be when she comes on stage for the halftime show?

Black                              3/2

Gold/Brown                   5/2

White                             11/4

Silver/Grey                    19/4

Any Other Color             7/1

(Note: Predominant color will be graded winner.)

Will “Left Shark” make an appearance on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show?

Yes                  15/1

How many million viewers will Super Bowl 50 have?

Over/Under                   117 million

What will the Nielsen Rating be for Super Bowl 50?

Over/Under                   48.5

Which region will have a higher Nielsen Rating?

Denver              -140    (5/7)

Charlotte           EVEN  (1/1)

How many wings will Buffalo Wild Wings sell on Super Bowl Day?

Over/Under                   12 million

TEAM/GAME PROPS

Coin Toss

Heads               -105 (20/21)

Tails                 -105 (20/21)

Will the referee redo the coin toss?

Yes                  20/1

Will the team that chooses heads or tails in the coin toss be correct?

Yes                  -105 (20/21)

No                    -105 (20/21)

Team to win the coin toss

Carolina Panthers          -105 (20/21)

Denver Broncos              -105 (20/21)

Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?

Yes                  -105 (20/21)

No                   -105 (20/21)

Team to score first in the game

Carolina Panthers          -150 (2/3)

Denver Broncos              +120 (6/5)

Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes                  -160 (5/8)

No                    +130 (13/10)

Total Team Points – Carolina Panthers

Over/Under                   24½     

Total Team Points – Carolina Panthers – First Half

Over/Under                   11½       

Total Team Points – Denver Broncos

Over/Under                   20

Total Team Points – Denver Broncos – First Half

Over/Under                   9½ 

Will there be a score in the first 7m30s of the 1st quarter?

Yes                   -160 (5/8)

No                    +130 (13/10)

Will there be a score in the first 1m30s of the 1st quarter?

Yes                  +1000 (10/1)

No                    -2500 (1/25)

Which will be the highest scoring quarter?

1st Quarter                     5/1

2nd Quarter                   8/5

3rd Quarter                    9/2

4th Quarter                    5/2

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game?

Yes                  -220 (5/11)

No                    +175 (7/4)

Will there be a score in the final 2 minutes of the 1st half?

Yes                  -280 (5/14)       

No                    +220 (11/5)

Longest touchdown yardage in the game

Over/Under                   44½

Will there be a penalty for excessive celebration?

Yes      +250      (5/2)

No        -400     (1/4)

Will either backup QB take a snap in the game?

Yes       +200 (2/1)

No        -300 (1/3)

Total successful field goals

Over/Under                   3½

Longest successful field goal in the game

Over/Under                   44.5 Yards

Will there be a missed extra point?

Yes      +325 (13/4)

No        -450 (2/9)

Total QB sacks (Both teams combined)

Over/Under                   5½

Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored?

Yes      +150 (3/2)

No        -180 (5/9)

Will the Panthers rush for a 100 Yards or more for a 32nd straight game?

Yes      -500 (1/5)

No        +300 (3/1)

Total number of penalties made in the game by both teams

Over/Under                   12½

Total number of penalties assessed on the Carolina Panthers

Over/Under                   6

Total number of penalties assessed on the Denver Broncos

Over/Under                   6½

Margin of Victory

Panthers by 1-6 points                          3/1

Panthers by 7-12 points                         4/1

Panthers by 13-18 points                        11/2

Panthers by 19-24 points                       9/1

Panthers by 25-30 points                       16/1

Panthers by 31-36 points                       25/1

Panthers by 37-42 points                       40/1

Panthers by 43+ points                           50/1

Broncos by 1-6 points                             4/1

Broncos by 7-12 points                           8/1

Broncos by 13-18 points                         12/1

Broncos by 19-24 points                        25/1

Broncos by 25-30 points                        50/1

Broncos by 31-36 points                        75/1

Broncos by 37-42 points                        100/1

Broncos by 43+ points                            100/1

MVP AND FIRST TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN ODDS

Super Bowl 50 – Odds to Win MVP

Cam Newton                              5/7

Peyton Manning                        11/4

Luke Kuechly                             14/1

C.J. Anderson                             20/1

Ted Ginn Jr.                               20/1

Von Miller 20/1

Greg Olsen                                 22/1

Emmanuel Sanders                   22/1

Jonathan Stewart                      22/1

Demaryius Thomas                   22/1

Josh Norman                             28/1

Aqib Talib                                  33/1

DeMarcus Ware                         33/1

Corey Brown                              66/1

Owen Daniels                             66/1

Graham Gano                             66/1

Ronnie Hillman                          66/1

Brandon McManus                     66/1

Darian Stewart                            66/1

Danny Trevathan                        66/1

Chris Harris Jr.                            75/1

Devin Funchess                           100/1

Brandon Marshall                       100/1

Derek Wolfe                                 100/1

Kurt Coleman                               150/1

Mike Tolbert                                 150/1

Field                                              33/1

First Touchdown Scorer

Cam Newton (CAR)                       7/1

Greg Olsen (CAR)                          15/2

Jonathan Stewart (CAR)               8/1

C.J. Anderson (DEN)                     9/1

Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)           9/1

Demaryius Thomas (DEN)           9/1

Ted Ginn Jr. (CAR)                        10/1

Corey Brown (CAR)                       14/1

Owen Daniels (DEN)                     14/1

Ronnie Hillman (DEN)                 14/1

Mike Tolbert (CAR)                      16/1

Jerricho Cotchery (CAR)              20/1

Devin Funchess (CAR)                 20/1

Andre Caldwell (DEN)                  25/1

Jordan Norwood (DEN)                25/1

Ed Dickson (CAR)                         33/1

Peyton Manning (DEN)               50/1

No touchdown scorer                  66/1

Field                                             11/2

PLAYER PROPS

Will Peyton Manning throw a Pick 6 in the game?

Yes      +300 (3/1)

No        -500 (1/5)

Will Cam Newton break the Super Bowl record of most rushing yards by a QB?

Yes      +275 (11/4)

No        -450 (2/9)

(Note: The record is 64 by Steve McNair in Super Bowl XXXIV.)

Total Passing Yards – Peyton Manning (DEN)

Over/Under                   235½

Total Passing Yards – Cam Newton (CAR)

Over/Under                   240½

Total Touchdown Passes – Cam Newton (CAR)

Over     1½         (-180, 5/9)

Under   1½        (+150, 3/2)

Total Touchdown Passes – Peyton Manning (DEN)

Over     1½         (-135, 20/27)

Under   1½        (+105, 21/20)

Cam Netwon and Peyton Manning Specials

Cam Newton records 300 or more Passing Yards                        7/2

Cam Newton records 350 or more Passing Yards                        9/1

Cam Newton records 50 or more Rushing Yards                         3/2

Cam Newton records 100 or more Rushing Yards                        12/1

Cam Newton records 25 or more Completions                             5/1

Cam Newton scores a Rushing TD and Carolina win the game   2/1

Peyton Manning records 300 or more Passing Yards                  7/4

Peyton Manning records 350 or more Passing Yards                  5/1

Peyton Manning records 30 or more Completions                      15/2

Total Rushing Yards – Cam Newton (CAR)

Over/Under                   39½

Total Rushing Yards – Ted Ginn Jr. (CAR)

Over/Under                   5½

Will Luke Kuechly record a pick 6 in the game?

Yes      +600  (6/1)

No        -1200 (1/12)

(Note: Kuechly had a pick 6 in both playoff games this year.)

Total Sacks – Von Miller (DEN)

Over     ½          (-225, 4/9)

Under   ½         (+180, 9/5)

CROSS-SPORTS PROPS

Cross Sport Props – What will be higher?

Trump % Points in the New Hampshire Primary               -200 (1/2)

Total Points scored by the winning Super Bowl team       +150 (3/2)

Cross Sport Props – Exact Outcome

Carolina wins Super Bowl – Trump Wins 2016 Presidential Election                       13/4

Carolina wins Super Bowl – Cinton Wins 2016 Presidential Election                       7/4

Carolina wins Super Bowl – Sanders Wins 2016 Presidential Election                     5/1

Denver wins Super Bowl – Trump Wins 2016 Presidential Election                        7/1

Denver wins Super Bowl – Clinton Wins 2016 Presidential Election                       9/2

Denver wins Super Bowl – Sanders Wins 2016 Presidential Election                      10/1

Cross Sport Props – What are the odds the Carolina Panthers win the 2016 Super Bowl and the Golden State Warriors win the 2015-2016 NBA Title?

Yes                  2/1

Will Denver win Super Bowl, Peyton Manning Retires, San Antonio wins NBA Championship, Tim Duncan Retires?

Yes                  20/1

Cross Sport Props – What will be higher?

DeMarcus Cousins Points and Rebounds Feb. 7

Cam Newton Rushing Yards

Cross Sport Props – What will be higher?

Total Goals in the Montreal vs Carolina NHL game on Feb. 7

Total Receptions by Greg Olsen

Cross Sport Props – What will be higher?

Tiger Woods 1st Round score at 2016 Masters

Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards

Cross Sport Props – What will be higher?

Arsenal Total Goals on Feb. 7

Peyton Manning TD Passes

Let me know who and what you’re betting on with Facebook or Twitter! 

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All The Super Bowl 50 Storylines, So Far…

Conference Championship Sunday featured the #1 seeds from both the AFC and NFC showing exactly how they got to where they are now. The Broncos defense beat the crap of Tom Brady, hitting him more than any other quarterback was all season, and their quarterback did enough to pull off the win. While the Panthers were also stellar on defense, their offense continued to shred another opposing top defense. Cam Newton became the 3rd quarterback to rush for 2 touchdowns and throw 2 as well in the playoffs (after Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick).

For the next two weeks, we’re going to wait way too long for what can be very good game…or an absolute blowout (I believe it will be the former). What you can expect is a plethora of storylines because both these teams aren’t lacking at all for them. You may get a new one every 12 hours until kickoff.

Here are ALL the storylines I could think of so far.

 

1. Cam’s Arrival

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Cam Newton has fun. After yesterday’s 49-15 decimation of the Arizona Cardinals, Newton had compiled 50 total touchdowns for 2015-16 (regular season and post season combined). Newton has a patented pointing mechanic on first downs, dances after touchdowns, and hands the ball to a kid in the stands when he’s done. You may not like it, but you’re going to have to get used to it. The league has become his video game and everyone else looks like they’re on “Easy Mode” for him.

Newton came into the league as a Heisman Trophy winner with a bad rap. He was arrested at Florida for stealing a laptop. His time at Auburn was scrutinized due to an investigation into his recruitment, which the NCAA came away with nothing. He was still drafted #1 overall and now has a chance to win a Super Bowl after 5 seasons, very likely with an MVP trophy on his mantle as well. What’s scary is that he’s done it without his #1 receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, all season.

Football fans without a stick up their asses are loving it. Others will choose to be miserable, and you’ll hear plenty from them for the next 2 weeks.

Some people just can’t have nice things, and that’s fine. Newton fans, on the other hand, can keep enjoying the best player in the league right now. In his last 10 games, Newton has scored 31 touchdowns (24 passing, 7 rushing). Who else from Newton’s “generation” comes even close to his level of play? Maybe Russell Wilson, but that’s it.

2. Peyton’s Last Stand

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Of the 4 quarterbacks facing off on Championship Sunday, Peyton Manning had the most on the line in terms of legacy. A win would help change his narrative that he’s just the best “regular season” quarterback. Now he’s won more games against 4-time champion Tom Brady than lost (3-2), and could join an elite group of only 11 quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings.

While the Broncos didn’t necessarily win because of Manning (we’ll get to that in a minute), they weren’t going to lose because of him either. When the running game couldn’t get going, Manning made key 3rd down conversions with both his arm and even his legs.

Manning run

When Peyton Manning is successfully running boot plays on your defense, you might not deserve to go to the Super Bowl. In his 4th trip, Manning can do something that the president of the Denver Broncos, John Elway, accomplished before retiring…go out on top.

3. Defense Wins Championships

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Super Bowl 50 is going to feature the league’s 2 best defenses who clearly proved that on Championship Sunday. The Broncos halted the #1 passing team in the NFL (New England) and the Panthers did the same with the #2 passing team (Arizona).

As mentioned earlier, the Broncos defense just manhandled Tom Brady and Von Miller led the way with 2.5 sacks and an interception. Miller’s presence was the certainly felt but so Derek Wolfe and DeMarcus Ware’s, only allowing Brady to finish 7/23 for 73 yards and a passer rating of 37.0 when pressured. The most impressive part of the Broncos defense dominating a fully healthy Patriots offense was that they were able to do so blitzing Brady a season low 17.2% of the time.

Throwing to Rob Growkowski against the Broncos, Brady was 8/15 for 144 and 1 touchdown. Throwing to everyone else, he was 19/41, 166 yards and 0 TDs. Heads up, Greg Olsen.

The Panthers ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency in 2015 (according to ESPN), just behind Denver. While the Broncos pressure the quarterback like crazy, the Panthers defense is racking up points off turnovers. On top Newton’s insane scoring rate, the Panthers have added 9.5 points per game to their net margin of victory as a result of takeaways, 1.7 points more than anyone else. They forced 7 turnovers, 6 from Carson Palmer, on Sunday.

 

4. Coaches Have A Lot In Common

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 12.11.19 PM

Both Ron Rivera and Gary Kubiak played on teams that went to the Super Bowl. Rivera won as a linebacker with the 1985 Chicago Bears. Kubiak went to 3, all as backup quarterback to John Elway, and lost them too.

Both Rivera and Kubiak went to the Super Bowl as coordinators. Rivera was the Bears’ defensive coordinator in 2006-07, losing to Peyton Manning’s Colts. Kubiak won three after his playing career, once as an assistant for the 49ers (1994) and twice more as Broncos offensive coordinator (1997 & 1998).

Now both Rivera and Kubiak will be standing on opposite sidelines of the sport’s biggest stage. They were also both successors for current Bears head coach John Fox.

5. Poor John Fox

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 12.14.11 PM

Actually, good new Bears fans!

John Fox went to the Super Bowl in each of his second seasons with the Panthers and Broncos. He didn’t win, but going is a nice improvement.

 

6. Other Bears Connections

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 12.15.16 PM

A few more former Bears you can root for in the Super Bowl, if you feel so inclined:

1. Greg, Son of Olsen.

Greg son of Olsen

2. Jared Allen (meh)

3. Charles “Peanut” Tillman (although on IR, but still a great dude)

Panthers Tillman

 

7. Unsung Heroes

Broncos Bench

The Broncos “Other” Defensive Linemen (above)

While Miller, Ware and Wolfe get all the sack glory, defensive ends Malik Jackson and Antonio Smith and nose tackle Sylvester Williams are teeing them up and destroying opposing running backs.

Ted Ginn Jr.

I love that Ted Ginn Jr. went from being the guy who drops everything to a 10 touchdown WR. A lot of that may be thanks to his quarterback, but somebody has to take the top off defenses and burn opposing safeties like Ginn has.

Emmanuel Sanders

Something I may have left out of Peyton Manning’s storyline was how Emmanuel Sanders made some of the BIGGEST plays on 3rd down for his quarterback. While Damaryius Thomas was off and on during the season, Sanders had 4 games of 8+ receptions. With Manning throwing more underneath and Josh Norman covering Thomas, Sanders will be a huge key against the Broncos nickel coverage.

 

The Panthers Team Picture Game

Exhibit A

Stay Tuned For More Super Bowl 50 Coverage on MichaelPiff.com. There will be more on the Halftime Show, Commercials, Media Day, and the annual “Everything But Football” piece as well. Follow along on Facebook and Twitter. 

 

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Denver Police Troll New England Patriots Before Halftime

The AFC Championship has been relatively one-sided so far for Manning vs. Brady 17.

The Denver Broncos lead the New England Patriots 17-9 at halftime. Peyton Manning is 10/20 passing with 128 yards and 2 touchdowns to Owen Daniels. Tom Brady’s day has been less than stellar throwing 8/20, 87 yards and 2 interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Denver Police Department is having some fun at the Patriots O’s expense on Twitter.

 

Too early? I hope not…They may not like what they find.

 

For more, follow along on Twitter! 

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Brady vs. Manning 17: Why This One Matters

If Fast and the Furious ever gets this many sequels, I quit.

I understand if you’re exhausted from hearing about this. It’s a storyline that’s been shoved down your throat for 2 decades, and both quarterbacks have their detractors. There’s a reason you’ve heard all the narratives for as long as you have though.

The last time neither Peyton Manning nor Tom Brady were in the AFC Championship was in 2011. Before then, it was 2006. Brady and Manning will be facing off for the 17th time this weekend, but it will be the 5th time in the playoffs with both winning 2 games a piece. Manning actually has an edge on Brady, having won 2 of their 3 matchups in the AFC Championship. This time could (and should) be their last, and it will be for a shot at Super Bowl 50.

When you bring up Manning and Brady, you’re talking about two of the best to play their position, the most important position in the most watched sport in the country. One year separates the two in age (Manning 39, Brady 38), and they are both in the Top 6 of career touchdowns, yards and passer rating. Manning ranks 1st, 1st, and 5th, Brady is 3rd, 5th and 6th. Brady’s 4 Super Bowl rings compared to Manning’s 1 are pretty glaring, but it’s still too fitting to see either of these 2 get another chance to play on the biggest stage in sports. Just a year ago, the Super Bowl drew it’s largest audience with 114.4 million people watching.

The numbers for both quarterbacks in their 16 meetings make up that of a solid regular season. Manning has completed 410 of 657 passes (62.4%) for 4,809 yards, 33 TDs and 22 INTs (87.4 QB rating). Brady has completed 367 of 553 passes (66.4%) for 4,013 yards, 31 TDs and 13 INTs (96.5 QB rating). Brady leads the series 11-5, with an 8-2 record against Manning at Foxboro and split 3-3 in Indianapolis/Denver. In the last 10 years though, Manning is 2-0 in the playoffs against Brady. Neither one has won against each other on the road since 2007.

Who has the most to gain with a win this Sunday though, with legacies mostly cemented going? Brady holds the record for most playoff wins (22) and has a 73.3 win percentage while Manning holds the record for the most playoff losses (13). Regardless the result of Sunday’s game, Brady will go down as one of football’s all-time greats as a winner because of his post season hardware. Manning will unfortunately be remembered as the greatest “regular season” quarterback who only came home with the ultimate prize once out of 15 chances, with a younger brother holding a second ring over his head…unless he wins Sunday and February 7th.

It’s amazing Manning has reached this point following his worst statistical regular season of his career and having to sit out due to injury. He’s had transform his game from being the dominant quarterback to “game manager”, and it worked great against the Steelers. With a Super Bowl quality defense, all Manning has to do now is hand the ball off, make the right checks evaluating the coverage, not turn the ball over, and make a play when it’s needed.

Brady self sack.gif

There are only 11 quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings:

Eli Manning – 2

Ben Roethlisberger – 2

John Elway – 2

Jim Plunkett – 2

Roger Staubach – 2

Bob Greise – 2

Bart Starr – 2

Troy Aikman – 3

Terry Bradshaw – 4

Joe Montana – 4

If Brady wins one more, he joins club of his own with 5. If Manning wins one more, he joins the club and fans will remember that more than the 13 playoff losses. Ask Elway, who lost 8 times before winning his 2 rings back-to-back to end his career. Can Manning have his Elway moment?

I tried to think about where this rivalry stacks up in sports. It’s not quite Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird. Two all-time greats, yes, but there were 8 championships won between the two (Magic 5, Bird 3) and they had to do it against each other in the Finals. Ali/Frazier was a whole different level of competition, and disrespect for each other. Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain though…

Russell is the greatest winner in basketball history with 11 championships and Chamberlain was statistically one of the best to ever play his position while winning his second ring late in his career. A big difference is that Russell and Chamberlain had to actually man-up on each other, but the legacy comparisons between them and Brady/Manning are certainly there.

Vote for your pick to win this weekend and check out more on Facebook or Twitter! 

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NFL Week 11 Fantasy Mailbag

When you hear the phrase “down the stretch”, this is officially it. We’re all just a few weeks away from the Fantasy playoffs and every win really counts. Your lineup probably looks very different than it did to start the season, much like those of actual NFL rosters by Week 11. For instance, Peyton Manning…

It seems like yesterday when Peyton’s receivers were playing keep away with his record setting touchdown pass.

Peyton keepaway

Fast forward to last Sunday when Peyton threw more interceptions (4) than the number of yards he needed to break the all-time passing yards record (3). Next thing you know, he’s on the bench for Brock Osweiler, and Gary Kubiak says it only has to do with a plantar fascia issue and not based on merit. Politics and bad Broncos storylines aside, I’m glad I traded Peyton after Week 1 and picked up Cam Newton and Jay Cutler off waivers.

Cam Dance

 

Quick Hits

 

  • As one aforementioned AFC West quarterback seems to be riding off into the distance, a new one seems to have arrived in a big way. Derek Carr is coming off a streak of 3 straight 300+ yard performances and 10 touchdowns over that stretch. Not only is Carr a surefire Top 10 QB now, his Top 2 WRs become easy starts every week as well because of his maturation. Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree get a plum matchup at Detroit against a defense that has given up big numbers against solid receiver duos like Keenan Allen/Stevie Johnson (21-248-1), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (15-179-1), and Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown (9-131-2).

Carr to Crabtree

  • Helping Kirk Cousins achieve his perfect 158.3 passer rating last week against the Saints was his tight end, Jordan Reed. Reed’s health has always been a hinderance for his production, but he’s currently as hot as anyone in the end zone. Over his last 3 games, Reed has scored 5 touchdowns. He’s also the 2nd highest targeted tight end in the end zone and is getting plenty more opportunities than any of the other Washington WRs. Reed takes on a Panthers defense this weekend that has allowed 3 touchdowns in their last 3 games.

 

  • I’ve learned my lesson on Lamar Miller. No matter how juicy the matchup looks for other running backs on my team, I can’t leave Miller on my bench. Even if he’s being limited in the run game (only 103 yards rushing in his last 3 games), he’s racking up the points receiving with 7 touchdowns through the air over his last 5 games.

 

Mail Time!

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.52.22 AM

Danny Amendola should not be left available in any league at this point. Before his injury, Julian Edelman was getting 10 targets per game from Tom Brady. Amendola had 11 just on Sunday. He’s filling in the Edelman role and has returner duties as well for more potential points.

Between Danny Woodhead or John Brown to drop, I would feel better letting go of Brown for the time being. You’ve had at least 3 weeks of no production in a row out of the guy. Jaron Brown was confusing viewers the other night getting more looks than John actually. I’m sure he’ll get back on track with Michael Floyd dealing with a hamstring injury, but Woodhead is much more valuable to the Chargers’ depleted offense than Brown is to the Cardinals.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.52.39 AM

I know the bad version of Andy Dalton showed up again Monday night, but the guy was and probably still is an MVP candidate this season. With that said, Russell Wilson’s matchup against the 49ers at home is too good to ignore. The Niners are allowing 327 pass yards per game on the road. If Wilson doesn’t show up for you this week, you can drop his ass. Quote me on that one.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.53.34 AM

Flex: At this point, I can’t sit either Cooper or Crabtree with the way Carr is throwing. And he’s going to light up the Lions secondary this weekend too. While the running back hipster in me wants you go with Danny Woodhead, the upside for Michael Crabtree is too great this weekend to pass up. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers start running Melvin Gordon more to see what they have while they are out of the playoff race.

WR: Simply because Kamar Aiken is Joe Flacco’s only pass option, I like his chances for production over Donte Moncrief. TY Hilton will be closer to 100% this weekend and will garner more attention from Matt Hasselbeck. Moncrief also falls behind the tight ends for targets as they are Rob Chudzinski’s bread and butter for play calling.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.53.55 AM

At least you’re in first place with a few weeks left in the regular season. If there are guys on your roster who are out for the season, you should already be working the waiver wire for the best available pickups. Let me know on Facebook or Twitter who’s in Free Agency for your league and we’ll patch up your lineup.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.54.14 AM

The Broncos wide receivers probably got an upgrade with Manning going down. I anticipate Emmanuel Sanders’s possession game will be more helpful to Osweiler, especially this week against the Bears. Quietly, Kyle Fuller has played like one of the best cornerbacks in football recently and he’ll likely draw Demaryius Thomas. Go with old reliable Sanders over Jeremy Maclin, who hasn’t done much since Week 5.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.54.33 AM

Flex: For the same reason I listed earlier, go with Aiken. While the Broncos will run more this weekend, the Bears are stout against the run. They’ve only allowed 3 touchdowns to running backs all season as well.

TE: If one person is doing well for the Packers during their current 3 game slide, it’s Richard Rodgers. He has 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games, 14 targets, 10 catches, and likely all of Aaron Rodgers’s attention in the red zone against a Vikings D that keeps WRs and RBs in check regularly.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.54.50 AMDude…Marshawn. And if Thomas Rawls is available, go handcuff him in case something absurd happens. But seriously…Marshawn.

Marshawn racoon

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!