NFL Week 11 Fantasy Mailbag

When you hear the phrase “down the stretch”, this is officially it. We’re all just a few weeks away from the Fantasy playoffs and every win really counts. Your lineup probably looks very different than it did to start the season, much like those of actual NFL rosters by Week 11. For instance, Peyton Manning…

It seems like yesterday when Peyton’s receivers were playing keep away with his record setting touchdown pass.

Peyton keepaway

Fast forward to last Sunday when Peyton threw more interceptions (4) than the number of yards he needed to break the all-time passing yards record (3). Next thing you know, he’s on the bench for Brock Osweiler, and Gary Kubiak says it only has to do with a plantar fascia issue and not based on merit. Politics and bad Broncos storylines aside, I’m glad I traded Peyton after Week 1 and picked up Cam Newton and Jay Cutler off waivers.

Cam Dance

 

Quick Hits

 

  • As one aforementioned AFC West quarterback seems to be riding off into the distance, a new one seems to have arrived in a big way. Derek Carr is coming off a streak of 3 straight 300+ yard performances and 10 touchdowns over that stretch. Not only is Carr a surefire Top 10 QB now, his Top 2 WRs become easy starts every week as well because of his maturation. Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree get a plum matchup at Detroit against a defense that has given up big numbers against solid receiver duos like Keenan Allen/Stevie Johnson (21-248-1), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (15-179-1), and Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown (9-131-2).

Carr to Crabtree

  • Helping Kirk Cousins achieve his perfect 158.3 passer rating last week against the Saints was his tight end, Jordan Reed. Reed’s health has always been a hinderance for his production, but he’s currently as hot as anyone in the end zone. Over his last 3 games, Reed has scored 5 touchdowns. He’s also the 2nd highest targeted tight end in the end zone and is getting plenty more opportunities than any of the other Washington WRs. Reed takes on a Panthers defense this weekend that has allowed 3 touchdowns in their last 3 games.

 

  • I’ve learned my lesson on Lamar Miller. No matter how juicy the matchup looks for other running backs on my team, I can’t leave Miller on my bench. Even if he’s being limited in the run game (only 103 yards rushing in his last 3 games), he’s racking up the points receiving with 7 touchdowns through the air over his last 5 games.

 

Mail Time!

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.52.22 AM

Danny Amendola should not be left available in any league at this point. Before his injury, Julian Edelman was getting 10 targets per game from Tom Brady. Amendola had 11 just on Sunday. He’s filling in the Edelman role and has returner duties as well for more potential points.

Between Danny Woodhead or John Brown to drop, I would feel better letting go of Brown for the time being. You’ve had at least 3 weeks of no production in a row out of the guy. Jaron Brown was confusing viewers the other night getting more looks than John actually. I’m sure he’ll get back on track with Michael Floyd dealing with a hamstring injury, but Woodhead is much more valuable to the Chargers’ depleted offense than Brown is to the Cardinals.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.52.39 AM

I know the bad version of Andy Dalton showed up again Monday night, but the guy was and probably still is an MVP candidate this season. With that said, Russell Wilson’s matchup against the 49ers at home is too good to ignore. The Niners are allowing 327 pass yards per game on the road. If Wilson doesn’t show up for you this week, you can drop his ass. Quote me on that one.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.53.34 AM

Flex: At this point, I can’t sit either Cooper or Crabtree with the way Carr is throwing. And he’s going to light up the Lions secondary this weekend too. While the running back hipster in me wants you go with Danny Woodhead, the upside for Michael Crabtree is too great this weekend to pass up. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers start running Melvin Gordon more to see what they have while they are out of the playoff race.

WR: Simply because Kamar Aiken is Joe Flacco’s only pass option, I like his chances for production over Donte Moncrief. TY Hilton will be closer to 100% this weekend and will garner more attention from Matt Hasselbeck. Moncrief also falls behind the tight ends for targets as they are Rob Chudzinski’s bread and butter for play calling.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.53.55 AM

At least you’re in first place with a few weeks left in the regular season. If there are guys on your roster who are out for the season, you should already be working the waiver wire for the best available pickups. Let me know on Facebook or Twitter who’s in Free Agency for your league and we’ll patch up your lineup.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.54.14 AM

The Broncos wide receivers probably got an upgrade with Manning going down. I anticipate Emmanuel Sanders’s possession game will be more helpful to Osweiler, especially this week against the Bears. Quietly, Kyle Fuller has played like one of the best cornerbacks in football recently and he’ll likely draw Demaryius Thomas. Go with old reliable Sanders over Jeremy Maclin, who hasn’t done much since Week 5.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.54.33 AM

Flex: For the same reason I listed earlier, go with Aiken. While the Broncos will run more this weekend, the Bears are stout against the run. They’ve only allowed 3 touchdowns to running backs all season as well.

TE: If one person is doing well for the Packers during their current 3 game slide, it’s Richard Rodgers. He has 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games, 14 targets, 10 catches, and likely all of Aaron Rodgers’s attention in the red zone against a Vikings D that keeps WRs and RBs in check regularly.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 10.54.50 AMDude…Marshawn. And if Thomas Rawls is available, go handcuff him in case something absurd happens. But seriously…Marshawn.

Marshawn racoon

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend! 

NFL Week 2 Fantasy Mailbag

Week 1 is in the books, and we’re off and running! 

Tyler Lockett return TD

The return of the NFL to your Sundays, and big return touchdowns from Tyler Lockett (SEA), Jarvis Landry (MIA) and Tavon Austin (STL), had everyone buzzing after the weekend. Top receivers like T.Y. Hilton (IND) and DeSean Jackson (WSH) had Fantasy managers all over the waiver wire for suitable replacements. If you had Peyton Manning, have you already tried handcuffing him in a trade for someone who you feel confident about throwing further than 10 yards?…I did. 

Quick Hits 

  • If you haven’t traded Peyton yet, because you couldn’t or you want to hold out hope, picking up Marcus Mariota certainly seemed like the sexy move after his NFL debut with the Titans. Mariota became the first rookie to post a perfect passer rating (158.3) and the second to throw 4 touchdowns in his debut. Fran Tarkenton was the first in 1961, but Mariota accomplished the feat in just the first half…I wouldn’t expect the the same dominance against the likes of Joe Haden and the Browns defense this week, but Super Mariota is worth having on your bench. 

  • Hard not to feel good about the offense that takes on that Buccaneers defense after you saw what a rookie quarterback and Bishop Sankey did to them. At home, Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, and maybe even Brandon Coleman will eat the Tampa secondary alive. Mark Ingram owners should also be excited for the matchup after seeing his usage in the passing game last week. CJ Spiller is set to return, but Ingram shouldn’t lose too many snaps after leading all running backs in receiving yards with 98 on 8 catches. 
  • It’s scary to think Julio Jones is getting better, right? The Falcons WR, who ran a 4.3 40-yard dash on a broken foot in his draft combine, proved Monday Night how essential he is to the new Atlanta offense with 9 catches on 11 targets for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jones would have been closer to 200 yards had two of his big plays not been called back on holding calls. Expect another big week out of him against the Giants after they allowed the 2nd most pass yards in their season opener. 

Mail Time

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 12.43.15 PM

I know Donte Moncrief became a favorite pickup for many after Hilton went down in Week 1, and I get it. Moncrief has all the measurables, the speed, and the quarterback that make him viable as Hilton’s replacement. However, I don’t love him against the Jets and Darrelle Revis. In two games against Revis, Hilton recorded just 4 catches for 60 yards. That doesn’t spark much excitement from me for Moncrief…While the Rams defensive line is indeed terrifying, their secondary allowed the 3rd most catches to wide receivers last week and that bodes well for Washington’s new #1 WR Pierre Garcon. During his string of starts in 2013, Kirk Cousins targeted Garcon an averaged of 12.2 times over 5 games. Moncrief still has to share balls with Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Rashad Jennings made things murkier after throwing his quarterback under the bus, while also losing touches to Andrew Williams and Shane Vereen. I like Tevin Coleman most longterm, as he separated himself as the more reliable back from Devonta Freeman. For Week 2, Garcon is your best option.

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 12.43.52 PM

To answer your first question, go Matt Ryan for sure. I know the Bears secondary looks very tempting, but the Giants look even worse with their unit. If the Tony Romo was able to shred them without Dez Bryant, imagine what Ryan will do with both Jones and Roddy White healthy….

Your first option at running back should be Latavius Murray. The Ravens defense got worse against the run losing Terrell Suggs, and Murray was used like an every-down back and useful in PPR catching 7 passes against a better Bengals D….Sankey looked great last week, but when has he proven that he can be consistent on the pro level? CJ Anderson is banged up and Ronnie Hillman certainly emerged as a threat to take touches away. Joique Bell also didn’t do anything to quiet the Ameer Abdullah fan club…Only because the matchup isn’t great for Anderson do I recommend Sankey over him, but it’s very begrudgingly. The Browns may be harshing his mellow very quickly.

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 1.37.36 PM

See my previous answer about the latter 2 and just go with TJ Yeldon. The Jaguars offensive line graded out in the Top 3 for run blocking last week and Alfred Morris burned the Dolphins defense for 125 yards.

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 12.44.55 PM

One can assume LeGarrette Blount is going to get feature back duties this weekend returning from suspension, but when could you ever assume anything with Bill Belichick running backs? Blount also comes back against a scary Buffalo front 7…Danny Woodhead, on the other hand, took more than half of the Chargers snaps last weekend, scored 2 touchdowns, and was the second most targeted player for Philip Rivers. Rookie Melvin Gordon may get more work in his second start, but I trust Woodhead’s opportunities over Blount’s…especially in the red zone.

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 12.56.00 PM

The most reliable player in this scenario is CJ Anderson, and that’s scary. With talks that both Todd Gurley and Tre Mason being ready to go this weekend makes Benny Cunningham a lot less valuable. I would recommend Lockett if you got return points for him, but he still needs to grow in the Seattle passing attack with Doug Baldwin and Jermain Kearse well ahead of him.

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 12.46.47 PM

After taking more snaps than Joique Bell and proving he’s a much better home run threat, Ameer Abdullah made a lot of people right about him. He also has a better matchup going against the Vikings than Woodhead does against the Bengals. I would like to see Abdullah pickup where Carlos Hyde left off last Monday Night.

Screen Shot 2015-09-17 at 12.46.23 PM

The one person benefiting from Peyton Manning’s short pass strategy is Emmanuelle Sanders. Especially in PPR, he’s a must play. Second, I trust John Brown against the Bears secondary. Larry Fitzgerald will get most of the attention leaving not much to take on Brown’s speed downfield.

In regards to James Jones, he caught 4 passes and scored 2 touchdowns last week against Alan F’ing Ball (who wanted know part of covering inside the end zone) and a struggling Kyle Fuller. There’s a reason Jones was available for the Packers to pick him up before the season started, and I don’t think his skills are suddenly back to 2012 quality. Rodgers makes him a better player, but Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery are younger…and possibly more viable.

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!