Rob Gronkowski

4 Comments Posted on July 4, 2016July 4, 2016 Fantasy Football

2016 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends 1.0

The tight end position is evolving immensley in recent years, especially for Fantasy Football owners. If you don’t have a viable pass catcher lining up on your offensive line, you’re behind the curve in today’s NFL.

The prototypical #1 tight end in the league today causes absurd matchup problems for opposing defenses. They are too fast for most linebackers and too tall for most safeties to cover. After some movement in the offseason, let’s take a look at the landscape and how you should prioritize the position in your upcoming draft. The fact a tight end is on this year’s Madden cover is more than enough evidence you should take it seriously.

The #1 may be an obvious choice, but there are plenty of big bad weapons who can be big difference makers for your fantasy team this Fall.

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Over 6 seasons in the league, Rob Gronkowski has taken the position that Tony Gonzalez redefined and elevated it for all to stare in awe. In the 5 seasons Gronk played near full schedules and mostly healthy, he scored 10+ touchdowns. He has 65 total over his career and that’s almost 30 more than Gonzalez did (37) at this point. For more perspective, Antonio Brown has played as many seasons and 9 more games and only has 38 touchdowns.

2. Jordan Reed, Washington

If you were wondering why Kirk Cousins was so hot in different stretches last season, look no further than Jordan Reed. Over two separate 3-game spans (Weeks 5-7 & Week 11-13), Reed caught 5 touchdowns. 10 touchdowns in 6 games isn’t just a flash but potential for powerhouse status. As Cousins looks capitalize during his franchise-tenured season, expect him to do so with Reed in the end zone.

3. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

Since joining the Titans in 2013, Delanie Walker has become more and more trusted as an offensive weapon. At the of 31, Walker led all tight ends in targets (133) and receptions (94) over 15 games for 1,088 yards and 6 touchdowns. It may be hard to expect that kind of production in his 11th season, but he is the go-to guy for budding sophomore star Marcus Mariota.

4. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

While the touchdown numbers weren’t particularly gaudy, Greg Olsen enjoyed one of his best seasons playing pitch and catch with Cam Newton in 2015. Olsen accomplished career highs in targets (124) and yardage (1,104) with 77 catches and 6 touchdowns. With Kelvin Benjamin returning to the reigning NFC Champs, Olsen should get even more open in the red zone as attention should float the WR’s way.

5. Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns

Gary Barnidge was one of my favorite story’s in the NFL last season. He caught exactly as many passes (79) as times he was targeted over the previous 5 seasons. Add 1,043 yards and 9 touchdowns, and the lowly Browns find themselves a Pro Bowl diamond in the rough. The Browns are obviously committed to the soon-to-be 31-year-old tight end, as they extended him for 3 years last December. He has strong chemistry with Josh McCown, could be key in Robert Griffin III’s comeback, and has a new head coach (Hue Jackson) who loves throwing to the tight end in the end zone (see Tyler Eifert next).

6. Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Eifert was a monster in the red zone in 2015, scoring 13 touchdowns in 13 games. He had a huge 3rd season, recording 4 multi-touchdown games and being named to his first Pro Bowl. Unfortunately, Eifert left the Pro Bowl with an ankle injury that he had to get surgery for at the end of May. The risk in drafting Eifert is to anticipate that he’ll miss the start of the season and could be fragile, having missed his entire sophomore season to injury. Plan to have a solid backup ready to draft a few rounds later or handcuff Eifert to high-ceiling Bengals prospect C.J. Uzomah.

7. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce touchdown dances are a thing of sports entertainment beauty. Although he was named for his first Pro Bowl in 2015, he didn’t find the end zone enough to do more than 5 dances. Kelce has Gronkowski’s measurables (nearly the same height and weight) and is as athletic as anyone. After promoting former Vikings head coach Brad Childress to offensive coordinator, the Chiefs would be smart to further utilize Kelce’s size and athleticism.

8. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

As former Chiefs OC Doug Pederson takes over as HC in Philadelphia, Zach Ertz may be his most reliable receiving weapon. While the Eagles work on developing 2nd overall pick Carson Wentz, Sam Bradford will be managing the offense again and should be depending heavily on Ertz to get down the field. In his final 4 games of the 2015 season, Ertz averaged 8.75 catches and 112.5 yards for momentum going into this year.

9. Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers fans (and some Fantasy experts) wished, hoped and waited for Ladarius Green to become the heir apparent to Antonio Gates. During Gates’ 4-game suspension to start 2015, Green caught 19 passes for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was serviceable, but not wowing. Signing with Pittsburgh may have been the biggest boost to his potential, as Ben Roethlisberger will be looking to fill the void that always-reliable Heath Miller leaves. Expect him to be targeted plenty with Antonio Brown demanding double-coverage and Martavis Bryant serving a year-long suspension.

10. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Antonio Gates awarded those who stashed him after their 2015 Fantasy drafts with 9 catches and 90+ yards in back-to-back games, plus 2 touchdowns, following his suspension. The Chargers offense was plagued terribly by injuries though after that point and nobody after Danny Woodhead could manage to produce much. The Chargers are very committed to Gates after giving him a 2-year deal this past Spring. At 36-years old, he’s still as dangerous a red zone weapon as anyone in the high-octane, pass-happy Chargers offense. Better drafted as a late TE1/early-backup but the 12 touchdowns he recorded in 2014 aren’t out of the question in 2016.

11. Zach Miller, Chicago Bears

Like Gary Barnidge, Zach Miller was another feel good story last season…maybe even more so. He’s been in the league since 2009, but only has 4 official seasons in that span. Miller is an impressive athlete. He converted from playing quarterback after his college career ended at Nebraska-Omaha and impressed scouts enough to be drafted in the 6th round by Jacksonville. Unfortunately, injuries have kept him off the field, and out of the league at times, until the Bears gave him a shot in 2015…

Miller broke out after his brilliant one-handed touchdown catch in San Diego and followed it up with a 5 catch, 107 yard and 2 touchdown performance in St Louis (*skypoint St. Louis professional football*). He also became Jay Cutler’s most trusted target as his starting receivers fell further and further back in the depth chart. If he stays healthy and the Jeffery/White combo stretches out defenses, Miller could be a solid producer in 2016.

12. Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints

Coby Fleener showed a lot of promise in 2014, scoring 8 touchdowns on top of 774 yards off 54 catches. He didn’t overcome the adversity at the quarterback position in 2015, taking steps back in all statistical categories. Joining Drew Brees in New Orleans could be the best thing for the fast and athletic tight end. Sean Payton’s pass-happy offense raises the ceiling on Fleener’s potential for targets and yardage.

13. Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

After scoring 12 touchdowns in each of the 2 seasons prior, 2015 was a bit of a letdown for Julius Thomas. Battling injuries and getting used to a new team, Thomas caught just 46 passes for 455 yards and 5 touchdowns in 12 games. Thomas has never played an entire season, but his body of work shows he can get into the end zone. As #BorttlesKombat improves in his young career, so should his chemistry with Thomas.

14. Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

Which Jimmy Graham should fantasy players expect to see in 2016? The one that recorded 10+ touchdowns in 3 of the previous 4 years before joining Seattle, and 2 seasons of 1,200+ yards…or the one who disappeared from stat columns, scoring just 2 touchdowns in 11 games? Hopefully another offseason practicing me with Russell Wilson will help remind Graham of the force he used to be.

15. Austin Serafin-Jenkins

Austin Serafin-Jenkins has the size and athleticism of red zone monster, but he needs to stay healthy for more than half the season to show it. The 2 touchdowns he scored in the last 3 games of the season were a glimpse at his potential. Hopefully Jameis Winston can unlock more of it in 2016.

16. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

When Norv Turner joined the Vikings staff 2 seasons ago, the hope was that Kyle Rudolph’s numbers would just explode because of the OC’s success with other tight end’s like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron. That hasn’t been the case yet, as Rudolph only scored 7 touchdowns in that span. The Vikings bolstered their offensive line and added arguably the best wide receiver in the draft which should improve Rudolph’s opportunities in 2016.

17. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts

Like Fleener, Dwayne Allen’s numbers were victim to turmoil under center for the Colts and health as well. He went from scoring 8 touchdowns in 2014 to only 1 a season ago. The Colts are all in on Andrew Luck, after extending him for 6 years and $140 million, and that means they expect more seasons like 2014…which should bode well for Allen.

18. Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

Calvin Johnson’s retirement means more opportunities for the rest of the Lions offense to step up, and that includes Eric Ebron. Ebron was targeted 7+ times in just 3 games while still improving on all his numbers in his sophomore season. If the Lions are going to improve on the offensive momentum they had from Week 7 and beyond in 2015, they will want to utilize their uber-athletic tight end.

19. Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots

The Patriots got a lot more dangerous in the red zone by adding Martellus Bennett. He can block, jump, catch and weird you out in any given interview. Bennett proved he has Pro Bowl potential, catching 90 passes for 916 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2014, but wore out his welcome in Chicago by complaining about his contract situation (with 2 years left on it) and dropping too many key balls.

Bennett should be a heck of a weapon in 2 TE situations and backing up Gronk. Hopefully Belichick doesn’t get sick of him.

20. Jared Cook, Green Bay Packers

If Richard Rodgers could catch 8 touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers throwing in 2015, imagine what Jared Cook’s ceiling could be in Green Bay…

21. Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins

Jordan Cameron should like new head coach Adam Gase’s offense, which is aggressively dependent on play-action and using the tight end. Gase’s offense helped Julius Thomas score 24 touchdowns in 2 years and brought Zach Miller’s career to life after the age of 30.

22. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Jason Witten could be more valuable than where he is ranked here, but that’s dependent on both he and Tony Romo staying healthy. Even with Brandon Weedon in the mix at quarterback, Witten’s targets were up from 90 to 104 in 2015. Most of the Cowboys’ offensive optimism is based on the success of 1st round draft pick RB Ezekiel Elliott and how he’ll open the offense for everyone. That logic makes Witten worth a late round flyer, plus the lack of competition and Gavin Escobar returning from an achilles injury.

23. Benjamin Watson, New Orleans Saints

If Coby Fleener does his disappearing act, as he’s been known to do, Drew Brees has a soft landing spot in Benjamin Watson. The 6 touchdowns Watson caught last season tied the most of his 12-year career, but he also recorded career highs in targets (110), receptions (74), and yards (825).

24. Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills

Charles Clay’s numbers have been sliding since his 2013 breakout, notably after leaving Miami for Buffalo. There was some promise shown in Clay’s first quarter of the season, and hopefully a healthier and more experience Tyrod Taylor can help that in 2016.

25. Clive Walford, Oakland Raiders

The Raiders offense is on its way toward juggernaut status with a great offensive line, a star quarterback, an extremely athletic running back and a pair of top-end wide receiver. Enter potential Year 2 Tight End breakout Clive Walford. His targets rose in the 2nd half of his rookie season and he should see plenty more as Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree command attention in 2016.

More Position Rankings:

Running Backs (2.0)

Quarterbacks (2.0)

Wide Receivers (2.0)

Follow for more and ask questions on Facebook and Twitter.

1 Comment Posted on January 4, 2016January 4, 2016 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Awards 2015

Has your Fantasy Football withdrawal kicked in already? Are you already thinking about next year’s draft? Yeah, me too…That’s why I’ll be frequently updating my draft boards on MichaelPiff.com starting next week.

But first…

We have some awards to hand out from the 2015 season!

We see you @gregolsen88! pic.twitter.com/eY2nur3acu

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) January 4, 2016

This season was wild. Injuries, suspensions, surprises, Gary Barnidges, backup quarterbacks, drama and more drama…We’ll look at all the impact players, and some of the worst, that dictated your fantasy season this past season.

MVP

Cam Newton, Panthers

Every year you do your Fantasy draft, who usually goes off the board first?…Running backs. Then someone drafts Aaron Rodgers (probably Andrew Luck this year too) ridiculously high and some wide receivers will round out your first round. Quarterbacks don’t typically start to go in bulk until the 4th round and Cam Newton wasn’t even being considered until the 8th. His average draft position was 77.1 overall, average round was 8.4.

Those who rolled with Newton, and weren’t afraid of the lack of hype around his wide receivers, reaped ALL the benefits of #1 scoring quarterback in football. He finished the season leading the league in total touchdowns with 45 (35 passing, 10 rushing) and added 4,473 yards from scrimmage (3,837 passing, 635 rushing). Newton’s stretch from Week 11-15 (19 total touchdowns) likely helped carry you to your league’s championship too.

Next Best: Carson Palmer

Hard not to consider Carson Palmer as an MVP as well since he regularly gave you at least 290+ yards and 2-3 touchdowns through the air.

Biggest Bust of the Year

Eddie Lacy, Packers

I can’t fault players who miss time or underperform due to injury. The top tier of the running backs almost all suffered this, besides Adrian Peterson. Eddie Lacy wasn’t hurt though. Lacy was a Top 5 pick in most leagues, and he gave you just 3 rushing touchdowns and 758 yards on the ground in 15 games. He was out of shape, missing curfews, and just simply…bad. If any of his 3 games of 100+ yards helped you, I imagine it was because you were desperate at running back. It took Lacy until Week 11 to do so.

Next Worst: Dez Bryant

I’m probably breaking my injury rule here, but you likely picked Bryant late 1st or early 2nd round, held on to him while he was injured, and got just 3 touchdowns and 401 yards in 9 games for your patience. Tony Romo or not, Bryant is supposed to be a game changer…not THAT.

Draft Steal

Devonta Freeman, Falcons

If you paid close attention to the Falcons in the offseason, you were weighing your options of taking rookie Tevin Coleman or 2nd year RB Devonta Freeman as one of your flier picks. If you picked Freeman, you CHOSE WISELY. Freeman went 119th overall on average, 2 rounds or so after Coleman, and he gave you 1,639 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns (most in the league). He also helped you stack up some wins from Weeks 2-6 with 10 touchdowns (9 rushing, 1 receiving).

Next Best: Tom Brady

If you picked Tom Brady before his suspension was lifted, you got him at backup value in later rounds. If you took him after, you still enjoyed his #RevengeTour with 36 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions.

Waiver Wire Pickup of the Year

DeAngelo Williams, Steelers

While Le’Veon Bell served his 2 game suspension to start the year, DeAngelo Williams filled in with 204 yards and 3 touchdowns (all in one game). After Bell went on IR following Week 8, Williams gave you high-end RB1 production, averaging 125 yards from scrimmage and finishing tied with Freeman for the league’s lead in rushing TDs.

Next Best: Gary Barnidge

Might gut went with Gary Barnidge initially, but Williams’s value after Bell went down was just too strong…Barnidge was certainly the breakout player of the year, posting 1,043 yards and 9 touchdowns on 79 catches at the age of 30. Before this year, Barnidge’s career totals were 604 yards, 44 catches and 3 touchdowns over 7 years.

Comeback Player of the Year

Doug Martin, Buccaneers

I’ll admit it. I wrote off the Muscle Hamster. After recording nearly 2,000 yards yards from scrimmage his rookie season, the guy barely hit half of that total over the next 2 years because of injuries, bad offensive lines and worse offensive coordinators. Bucs OC Dirk Koetter figured it all out though and made Doug Martin into the league’s 2nd leading rusher, picking up 1,402 yards on the ground. For someone who went in the 9th round on average in most fantasy drafts, I think you’d take that.

Next Best: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the definition of a journeyman quarterback. 6 teams in 10 years, never making the playoffs and a career high of 24 touchdown passes in both the seasons he started all 16 games…until this year. Surround his beard with 2 excellent possession receivers, a quality offensive line, and 2 viable running backs and Fitzpatrick turns into FitzMagic throwing 31 touchdowns. He threw multiple touchdowns in 12 of his 16 starts…Who figured Geno Smith getting punched in the face would benefit them so well?

Rookie of the Year

Todd Gurley, Rams

It’s hard not to picture Todd Gurley being drafted in your first round next season. In 12 starts, the rookie out of Georgia 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground (2nd highest in the league). Gurley was the Rams’ only source of offense, which explained some of the slow down in production down the stretch as opposing defenses keyed in on him. Expect Gurley to just get stronger and scarier now that he’ll have a full offseason without rehabbing an injury.

Next Best: Jameis Winston

It’s easy to compare Jameis Winston with Marcus Mariota, both rookie QBs with Heisman trophies in their mantles. Winston separated himself from Mariota with big play ability, ranked 2nd in yards per completion (13), and was more consistent for scoring in the 2nd half of the season.

Best Lineup

QB: Cam Newton, Panthers – 3,837 yards, 35 TD passing / 636 yards, 10 TD rushing

WR: Antonio Brown, Steelers – 1,834 yards, 136 catches, 10 TD

WR: Julio Jones, Falcons – 1,871 yards, 136 catches, 8 TD

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans – 1,521 yards, 111 catches, 11 TD

RB: Adrian Peterson, Vikings – 1,485 yards, 11 TD rush / 30 catches, 222 yards receiving

RB: Devonta Freeman, Falcons – 1,061 yards, 11 TD rush / 73 catches, 578 yards 3 TD receiving

FLEX: Odell Beckham Jr, Giants – 1,450 yards, 96 catches, 13 TD (15 games)

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – 72 catches, 1,176 yards, 11 TD

K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots – 33/36 FG, 52/52 PAT

DEF – Denver Broncos – 52 sacks, 14 INT, 16 fumble recoveries, 5 TD

Rising Lineup

QB: Kirk Cousins, Washington

WR: Allen Robinson, Jaguars

WR: Doug Baldwin, Seahawks

WR: Brandin Cooks, Saints

RB: Todd Gurley, Rams

RB: David Johnson, Cardinals

FLEX: Lamar Miller, Dolphins

K: Brandon McManus, Broncos

DEF: Minnesota Vikings

Who are your picks for our Year-End Fantasy Awards? Let me know on Facebook or Twitter! Stay tuned for year-round Fantasy Football info for next year’s draft!

Leave a comment Posted on December 17, 2015December 17, 2015 Fantasy Football

NFL Week 15 Fantasy Mailbag

If Fantasy Football and the NFL (or as some people call “Real Football”) have anything in common, it’s definitely the MVP race. After the Fantasy playoffs are over, we’ll award the best (and worst) from the season. Check out the results from last season here, where readers and I selected Comeback Player of the Year, Breakout Player of the Year, Steal of the Draft, Biggest Bust, and Most Valuable Player.

It’s funny how much we value running backs in the first round of the draft year to year, but the 5 most valuable players right now are definitely quarterbacks. By multiple fantasy websites, the common Top 5 looks like

Tom Brady (The Revenge Tour Continues)
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers

The first skilled position player to pop up in Actual Fantasy Rankings is Odell Beckham Jr typically around 7th overall, and then finally RBs Devonta Freeman and Adrian Peterson to round out the Top 10. Your average league’s first 5 draft picks looked very similar to Jamaal Charles (IR), Marshawn Lynch (multiple injury stints), Le’Veon Bell (IR), Peterson (fine) and Eddie Lacy (benched at different points). If you’re still in the playoffs, you likely have any of the 5 quarterbacks listed above and/or navigated successfully around the unfortunate circumstances of the Top 5 running backs.

Quick Hits

Julio Jones owners have probably been scratching their heads for a while now. Jones hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since November 1st, 7 weeks ago. Fortunately his reception and yardage numbers have been solid enough to suffice as a decent #2 or #3 for you, but that’s not why you drafted him. Jones is on pace to shatter the Falcons’ single season receiving record with potentially 1,755 yards, despite just awful play from Matt Ryan. Your patience for a Julio touchdown may finally pay off now as he faces a Jaguars secondary that has allowed 10 touchdowns to WRs in their last 8 games.

The story of the Miami Dolphins 2015 season could easily be explained by how they use Lamar Miller. In games that Miller has 13+ carries, the Dolphins are 5-0. When he doesn’t they are 0-8. Many jobs could have been saved if they just gave Lamar the rock but here we are, Dolphins…On Monday night against the Giants, Miller had 7 carries for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns just by the 10:10 mark in the 2nd quarter. He only got 5 carries and zero targets the rest of the game and they lost…of course.

A big part of Tom Brady’s case for MVP is his ability to continue winning and put up big numbers as everyone else around him goes down like characters on Game of Thrones. What’s encouraging though, especially for Fantasy owners, are that his playmakers are all making their way back (like perhaps SOME Game of Thrones characters, dun dun dun!). Gronk came back in a big way last Sunday. This week, Julian Edelman is back practicing in pads…like Stone Cold Steve Austin’s entrance music interrupting the entire league.

Mail Time!

I think you’re certainly on the right track playing Denard Robinson this week. The matchup is juicier than a Juicy Lucy, which my Minnesota friends tell me is delicious. The Falcons have given up the most rushing touchdowns on the season with 15 and they are allowing more receptions to RBs than any other team. I know Todd Gurley seems sexy after his 2 touchdown performance and resurgence last week, but he’s going against one of the best run defenses in football. I would actually consider Matt Forte instead against a Vikings defense that could be missing Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith for a second week in a row. Forte also got 9 red zone carries to Jeremy Langford’s 2 last week.

If you feel strongly about Gurley, go for it and play him in your flex. Otherwise, I like Golden Tate in that spot against the New Orleans pass D. Excuse me while I puke think about them.

QB: You likely took Aaron Rodgers late in the 1st or somewhere in the 2nd round. This week is why you picked him there. He’s coming off the worst 10-game stretch of his career, there’s no doubt of that, but he’s taking on a an Oakland defense that allowed more than 2 TD games TWICE to Philip Rivers. Mike McCarthy took the play-calling duties back too, and he wears his play card on his sleeve…his play card being his heart in this metaphor, so expect a lot of stab tries down the field. I’m also not as confident in the Fitzmagic against the Dallas secondary as I would be against the rest of the NFC East.

RB: As I recommended earlier, go with Shoelace aka D-Rob. Then I lean toward Latavius Murray…partially because I don’t know what you’re going to get from Bryce Brown or Brandon Bolden, but also because the Packers have allowed touchdowns to running backs in 3 out of the last 4 weeks and 162 yards rushing to the Cowboys. He’s also a red zone carry machine for Oakland, getting 8 of the last 10 tries since Week 12.

Welcome to the Comeback Club, DB. I came back from an 0-6 start last season, only to get beat by my dad in the championship…

Third question in a row where I feel the need to drive home Denard Robinson. The Falcons have allowed more rushing touchdowns in the last 3 weeks (5), than 6 teams in the league have given up all year.

The 2nd choice I’m going to see what you feel better about. Out of your remaining options, I’m very intrigued by what Bryce Brown can do against the horrendous Browns run defense. It’s weird and scary because we have not seen him once all year, but he’s in line for a heavy workload. In the 4 games Brown had double-digit carries, he averaged 97 yards and a touchdown in each….Then there’s Bilal Powell, who has become a PPR beast in the last 2 weeks and is going against a Dallas team that allows the 4th most receiving yards and 8th most receptions to running backs. Potential upside’s higher with Brown, Powell is safer.

QB: I’m going with the QB that throws to Odell Beckham Jr. Also, the Carolina Panthers secondary just took a hit with Peanut Tillman dealing with a partially torn ACL having to put Bene Benwikere on IR. They could be starting a player they signed off the street on Tuesday, Robert McClain, and Eli Manning should be able to expose that with either ODB or Rueben Randle.

WR: Weird week for him last week, but Allen Robinson is a must start now, with 5 touchdowns in his last 3 games. He’s a big reason why #BortlesKombat is giving everyone he faces a FATALITY, and you can look at the work DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham did on the Falcons to feel better, combining for 16-303-1.

Now you have one of those GOOD problems. I am going with Doug Baldwin against he Browns though, especially if the Bryce Brown experiment doesn’t workout. If you believe in hot hands, there aren’t any hotter than Baldwin right now.

Lamar Miller, Randal. Lamar Miller.

(Read his “Quick Hit” above and you’ll understand why I’m not going into further depth on him.)

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!

Leave a comment Posted on December 3, 2015December 3, 2015 Fantasy Football

NFL Week 13 Fantasy Mailbag

Each Week 13 I like to remind Fantasy Football participants to thank their league commissioners for organizing everything…as long as they scheduled the playoffs to start next week and the championship to take place Week 16.

By the end of the season, you’ve come too far to worry about players on teams who have their division clinched and will potentially be rested Week 17 to make a run in the playoffs. Right now, I would worry about the Patriots, Cardinals and even the Panthers (who could be undefeated still) doing exactly that.

Now for immediate concerns, you are…

A) all good and have clinched a playoff spot. Just playing for the best seeding possible.

B) fighting for a playoff spot. It’s already win or go home.

C) hoping to spoil things for anyone that (B) applies to. It’s about pride at this point.

There is a “D” but you don’t want to be that person. You know, the person who drafted a team and didn’t give enough of a shit to do any maintenance on their roster at all, even after paying dues for a cash league. I played against Jordy Nelson last week. That’s all you need to know.

Quick Hits

Perhaps the most exciting individual matchup this weekend will be Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Darrelle Revis. In the past, Revis Island had scared away fantasy owners from even considering starting a #1 WR against him, even quarterbacks at times. In recent weeks though, Revis has allowed big games to DeAndre Hopkins (5 catches, 118 yards, 2 TDs) and Allen Robinson (6-121). Meanwhile, Beckham has cracked 100+ yards in 4 straight weeks, and has done so 13 times in his last 20 games.

[Update] Jets Head Coach Todd Bowles was asked about Revis’s status this week and responded with “I don’t think so.”

Another team that could potentially clinch their division by Week 17 are the Minnesota Vikings. Big reason why, and the player they’d likely be resting, is Adrian Peterson. AP has 634 yards and 5 touchdowns in his last 5 games, is 72 yards off his 2012 pace when he recorded 2,097 yards, and faces a Seattle defense this week that allowed 117 total yards to DeAngelo Williams. He’ll be the Viking’s best chance against the Seahawks in a black and blue matchup.

The funniest thing in football may in fact be the biggest difference for tonight’s matchup between the Lions and Packers…Jim Bob Cooter. The Lions have won 3 straight and now have a chance to sweep Green Bay. During that win streak, Matthew Stafford has thrown for 861 yards, no interceptions and 7 touchdowns (5 last week against Philly). Amazing how good Cooter, the OC (try not laughing), looks when his quarterback actually throws the ball to Calvin Johnson.

Mail Time!

I don’t like Antonio Andrews, or any Titans RBs, at all but seeing Charcandrick West practicing with the Chiefs again leads me to believe Spencer Ware is going to lose a lot of touches. If West plays this week, go with the starters in Andrews and Shaun Draughn. I wouldn’t expect touchdowns out of either, unfortunately. If West doesn’t go, plug Ware in for Andrews.

I understand the concern with Tom Brady, but haven’t we seen this story before? Without Gronk, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola, Brady threw 3 touchdowns against the best defense in the league. This week he plays the Eagles and could likely have Amendola back. Philly has given up 10 touchdowns in the last 2 week, and Brady has built a reputation for making something out of nothing (no-name receivers).

If you’re having strong enough doubts, this could be a great week for Ryan Fitzpatrick if he’s miraculously available on your waivers. Bryan Hoyer and Ryan Tannehill could be okay plays if you’re desperate.

The James Starks thing has come and gone, as Eddie Lacy has woken up finally. Now it becomes a question of whether or not you believe in CJ Anderson or not…

If Anderson is going to keep coming back into our good graces, it would be against the Chargers. They have allowed double-digit rushing TDs and 1,800+ rush yards. My gut tells me the Broncos will ride the hot back, just like they should ride the hot quarterback. So start CJ.

For matchup reasons, I have to lean toward LaGarrette Blount over Latavius Murray. The Chiefs have only allowed one back to run for more than 71 yards and have given up 1 rushing touchdown since Week 5. Meanwhile, the Eagles look like they’ve quit on their coach.

Similar to my reasoning to start Tom Brady and LeGarrette Blount, that’s why I like Scott Chandler this week. I picked him up in both my leagues (starting him in the one without Gary Barnidge), because Brady loves targeting his tight end. Last time Gronk missed significant time, Brady made Mike Hoomanawanui relevant.

If that doesn’t convince you, Eric Ebron would be a sneaky pickup tonight as the Packers have allowed a touchdown to TEs in 4 straight matchups. The even sneakier move would be Cameron Brate against the Falcons with Austin Seferian-Jenkins still down.

RB: If the Rams offense wasn’t a complete dumpster fire right now, I would say Todd Gurley is a no-brainer. But they are and that means he isn’t. Tony Romo going down means Darren McFadden is going to get all the checkdown passes he could dream of from Matt Cassel. I feel better about McFadden’s floor than Gurley’s ceiling this week.

QB: If Jay Cutler is available, go get him. The 49ers defense is a very different squad on the road than they are at home, allowing 35 points per game away from Levi’s Stadium.

WR: TY Hilton and Eric Decker are easy picks for me. The Steelers are giving up the most catches and 2nd most yards to receivers, and Decker is a touchdown machine scoring in 8 of 10 games. I like what D-Jax has done since returning, but the Cowboys pass defense is brutal.

QB: I am going to go with my common theme for this post, trust the Cooter. I am going to use the Lions OC’s name for as long as I can, so deal with it. Stafford’s got a hot hand and Rivers has a bad matchup.

I feel weird saying this, but I like Ryan Fitzpatrick a lot more this week. The Giants secondary is allowing 250+ yards and at least one touchdown to every QB they’ve faced. Meanwhile, I think the Packers are going to get Rodgers killed tonight…but he could always be “RODJAS!” again.

We do have a “Thor” in our league. Otherwise, I recommend GREG, SON OF OLSEN!

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!

Leave a comment Posted on October 29, 2015October 29, 2015 Fantasy Football

NFL Week 8 Fantasy Mailbag

What happens when you fire Joe Philbin, play the Titans and Texans in back-to-back weeks, and hand Lamar Miller the ball?

85 yards. 12 seconds. 6 points. @millertime_6. #HOUvsMIA https://t.co/yMTzco9Ciz

— NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2015

(The “Hard Knocks” Texans seem so long ago don’t they?)

In just two weeks, the Miami Dolphins look like the team their roster suggested they would be before the season even started. Miller had just 37 carries over the first 4 weeks of the season for 131 yards and no touchdowns. He has more than doubled that production in his last 2 games with 288 rush yards and 2 touchdowns on 33 carries (plus 61 yards and another touchdown receiving). The Dolphins also became the first team since at least 1940 to score 4 touchdowns of 50+ yards in the first half against Texans. Not a shabby start to the head coaching career for Dan Campbell.

The Dolphins head to New England tonight for what could be a shootout with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Don’t slow your roll yet on Miller as the Patriots are allowing 110 yards per game rushing. Now proceed to point and laugh at whoever dropped him in your fantasy league.

Quick Hits

The Cardinals running back situation seems pretty clear now with Zombie Chris Johnson ranked second in the league in rushing. Okay he’s more of a “Dawn of the Dead” zombie that runs. Fast…If you took my advice last week, you played Todd Gurley in DFS against the worst run defense in the league. The Browns have allowed more than 1,000 yards rushing on the season (132 more than the Chargers), and Zombie Chris Johnson should eat.

While the Chargers seem to have nearly given up on running the ball, the biggest benefactor of that trend has been Keenan Allen. Allen now leads the league in receptions with 62. Allen owners know that his point production is a little inconsistent, but he gets 12 targets per game. When Philip Rivers locks in on Allen, oh does he lock in…3 times this season, Allen has recorded 130+ yards and averages 13 catches in those games. His matchup against the Ravens smells like one of those games as Baltimore allows 214 yards and 1.6 to wide receivers each week.

While the sexiest tight end name in the game is Gronk, Greg Olsen is no slouch either. Olsen has 65+ yards and/or a touchdown in 5 of his 6 games this season. He’s gone for 130+ yards twice this season, and was targeted by Cam Newton 11 times in both of those games. I expect Newton to bounce back from a 3 interception game and to make Olsen a priority in order to do so. Olsen has already accounted for 21% of the targets each week and only trails Gronk for the most plays of 20+ yards this year.

Mail Time!

WR – I really like Jeremy Maclin this week against the Lions in London. Detroit is allowing 206 yards and 1 touchdown per game to wide receivers and Maclin is the only reliable receiver in Kansas City. In 3 of his last 4 games, Maclin averaged 7.5 catches and 106 yards.

RB – The guy I’m not picking of your group is James Starks. Ronnie Hillman is finally getting a majority of the first team reps in practice and THE DUKE is the back to have out of Cleveland. Johnson Jr. is the pass catching back and you have to expect the Browns to be playing from behind against Arizona…which means they’ll be passing. Starks is also banged up, a backup, and going against the best defense in football.

A very close call. As much as I like Martavis Bryant with Ben Roethlisberger coming back, I like Stefon Diggs more against the Bears secondary. In 3 games played, Diggs has more targets, caches and twice as many yards as Mike Wallace. Go with the clear #1 WR the Vikings has as the Bears will be doing whatever they can to keep Adrian Peterson in check.

I’m going to let this slide this week, but this^ is too many questions. Try to limit it to 2 going forward. Love ya, Emmet.

Trade: Hard to pick a winner without knowing the needs of each team involved, but I am going with whoever received Tannehill in the deal. Tannehill is trending way up with Philbin off his back, and Eddie Lacy is losing more and more touches to Starks. This weekend will be the most telling on what Lacy is this season with Starks hurting. If Starks gets more work than Lacy again, I feel bad for anyone who picked the former Bama back way too high this year.

Flex 1: The Duke for for the reasons I gave Bucy. Tavon is boom or bust regardless of the matchup as Gurley is now the entire offense and Nick Foles sucks.

Flex 2: Not a great week for Jeremy Hill going against the Steelers. Pacing will probably make Gio Bernard the better option for the Bengals, but at least you know Hill will get touches. He also has the most touchdowns from within the 5 yard line. Moncrief has a bad matchup against the Carolina secondary.

(See, I’ve already answered 3 questions for you and there are 2 left. I’ve got shit to do, homie)

QB: Roethlisberger. Ed Werder of ESPN has him going and so should you with ALL of his scoring options available.

Flex 3: Woodhead

You’ve got a solid matchup for Delanie Walker this week against the Texans defense. Whether it’s Mariota or Mettenberger under center, he’s their favorite target regardless. Watson has had a nice couple weeks, but Drew Brees has way more options to keep up with a tough Giants receiving corps.

Larry Donnell isn’t a great option, but at least he’s done something in the last 6 weeks. Jordan Cameron hasn’t recorded more than 30 yards since Week 2. I won’t trust him until I see him do better than that again.

I think you answered your own question, Donald. Tyler Eifert is a big reason for Andy Dalton’s success this season and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon. Eifert has as many red zone targets as AJ Green. Also, look at what Pittsburgh gave up to Gronk and Travis Kelce combined: 19 catches, 259 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!

Leave a comment Posted on October 15, 2015 Fantasy Football

NFL Week 6 Fantasy Mailbag

The Arizona Cardinals are playing like a Madden team on Easy Mode right now. If you started a whole lineup of Cardinals players last weekend, I have a feeling you would have done pretty well…

QB – Carson Palmer: 11/14, 161 pass yards, 3 TD

RB – Chris Johnson: 103 yards

RB – Andre Ellington: 63 yards, 1 TD

WR – Larry Fitzgerald: 5 catches, 58 yards, 1 TD

WR – John Brown: 4 catches, 73 yards, 1 TD

TE – Darren Fells: 2 catches, 25 yards, 1 TD

Flex – David Johnson: 3 carries, 6 yards, 2 TD

DEF – 2 Forced Fumbles, 4 INT, 1 Sack

K – Chandler Catanzaro – 6/6 PAT

I don’t know if the Cardinals will sustain these video game numbers all season, but I don’t see it slowing down this weekend in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have the worst pass defense in the league at this point, so Carson Palmer owners should be pumped. St. Louis boasted the only viable defense Arizona faced and beat them at home, however…

Quick Hits

Tonight the Atlanta Falcons take their 5-0 record to the Super Dome, and hope to stay undefeated with the help of Devonta Freeman. In Freeman’s last 3 games, he’s averaging 179.6 yards from scrimmage per game (539 total). He’s also leading the league in touchdowns with 8, 7 over those last 3 games, all on the ground. Freeman faces a Saints defense that is allowing the 3rd most rush yards in the league.

In the last 3 weeks, Browns TE Gary Barnidge has recorded 20 receptions for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. His pass catching total in that time is HALF of his entire career total, and he’s 30. Barnidge’s production has attributed to his quarterback’s incredible run as well. Josh McCown is averaging 384 yards and 2 touchdowns over his last 3 games, but now runs into a buzz saw with Denver coming to town. The Broncos pass defense is tops in the league with the kind of pass rushers that always seem to bring McCown back to Earth. Barnidge will be his best option to survive as the Broncos allowed 60+ receiving yards to Eric Ebron, Travis Kelce and Clive Walford.

The #TomBradyRevengeTour heads to where it all started this weekend. I imagine the Colts had this game circled on their calendar in the preseason, expected it to be Brady’s first game after a 4-game suspension, and would try to settle whatever score they had over a football they thought wasn’t inflated enough…In reality, the Colts are dealing with Wyatt Earp on his rampage in Tombstone. They’ve only won when their franchise quarterback has sat out and Brady is throwing 11 touchdowns and no interceptions coming in with fully inflated footballs. Brady is also throwing to two matchup nightmares in Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. Edelman is averaging 99.75 yards per game, 8.5 catches, and has 3 touchdowns as well.

What happens when Tom Brady drops a perfect touch pass to a full-speed Julian Edelman? 59 yards. TD. See ya #NEvsDAL http://t.co/6pLwJ0F0hw

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2015

Mail Time!

I start with Duke Johnson Jr, especially in PPR. Denver is very good against the run, yes, but they are susceptible to pass catching backs. Isaiah Crowell got his numbers last week against Baltimore, but Johnson had as many touches and was the feature back down the stretch. I expect Cleveland to be trailing and throwing. The Duke is their man in that scenario.

Next I lean toward Ronnie Hillman, partially because Ameer Abdullah is in the winless Jim Caldwell’s doghouse for fumble issues. Hillman goes against a horrendous Browns run-defense that is allowing 5 yards per carry. If neither Hillman or CJ Anderson can get it going against Cleveland, I would then recommend looking elsewhere.

When the Chargers are trailing, Danny Woodhead is getting a majority of the workload from Melvin Gordon. I know you’re fully aware of what the Packers are capable of scoring-wise, so you should expect Woodhead to get plenty of work. I don’t trust Abdullah’s usage at this point in the season like I do Theo Riddick’s.

As I pointed out earlier, the McCown thing has been fun but he’s in for a rude awakening this weekend. While the Falcons defense is improved, the only decent quarterback they’ve faced is Eli Manning (that was a struggle for me to type). Drew Brees has thrown 335+ yards in 3 of his 4 games and seems to have figured something out with Willie Snead and Ben Watson downfield. Go with the proven player in a better matchup this weekend, Breesus. If McCown can match his production from the past 3 weeks against Denver, then I’ll start to believe in his hype.

Really aren’t making this easy, are ya?

Hillman is your best option against a bad Cleveland run defense. Already said why I don’t like Abdullah. Golden Tate could burn the Bears secondary, which has improved in coverage recently, but I don’t like Stafford against their pass rush. And Pierre Garcon has a one-way ticket to Revis Island.

QB: Is Blake Bortles available? He’s probably better than all four in a spot start going up against Houston. Out of the 4 though, at least McCown done something worth writing home about in recent weeks. Tyrod looks doubtful this week, so I would prioritize McCown (1) then Mariota (2).

WR: Already mentioned why I don’t like Pierre this week, and really it’s now or never for Jordan Matthews. In their first meeting, Matthews had 8 catches, 105 yards and 1 TD against Philly. I don’t know if he’ll get the same numbers, but the gameplan is there…as opposed to Garcon vs. a stellar Jets pass D.

(1) – Breesus.

(2) – Sammy Watkins says he’s planning to return, and I believe him. I would also go with him over Martavis. Shaky quarterback situation, but at least he’s the #1 pass option. Both he and Bryant are taking on tough pass defenses, and Bryant has to work his way into a WR group with Antonio Brown and Michael Vick’s new favorite target, Darius Heyward-Bey.

Alshon Jeffery is FINALLY getting work in practice, which is encouraging to me. If he plays, he’s a must-start with the way Jay Cutler is playing as of late…If he doesn’t go, Rueben Randle (if healthy) is your next best option. Stevie Johnson becomes even less valuable with Antonio Gates back (and Philip Rivers’ obsession with Gates). And Torrey Smith is currently stuck in the worst offensive dumpster fire in the league.

Not a great passing matchup for either quarterback at all. I see both quarterbacks having to make more plays with their feet than their arms, but I also see Russell Wilson benefitting more from Marshawn Lynch returning for play-action. That, plus the defensive backs that Cam will be throwing against, gives Cam the slight edge.

There really isn’t a team in the league who doesn’t have viable fantasy options. I mentioned San Francisco being a dumpster fire, but they do have Carlos Hyde finding life again against a tough Giants defense.

Bad teams also always adjust their identity as the season continues, which allows the emergence of diamonds in the rough. As the Jaguars went on their slow death march a year ago, they committed to running the ball and Denard Robinson became a consistent 100 yard rusher for at least a month. And as team’s with bad defenses consistently have to play from behind, there’s always a wide receiver benefitting from the “catchup” mentality with garbage time targets and yardage.

Players individually are a different story. I gave up on Jonathan Stewart after 3 weeks of no production, and I don’t blame other owners for doing the same with CJ Anderson. When a top half draft pick doesn’t give you much return after the first quarter, you either try to flip him, or relegate him to your bench and wait for him to turn it around.

RB: Crowell’s game against Denver is way less effective than the Duke’s. That alone has me leaning toward Miller, and I like your thinking. New play-calling and a new attitude can’t hurt Lamar Miller’s usage.

WR/T: I am no longer a James Jones hater like I was for the first 3 weeks of the season. His 5 touchdowns with Rodgers tossing them makes him WR2 value for anyone. Then I go with Tyler Eifert against a Buffalo defense that his given up too much against tight ends this season…If your league gives points for returning yards, Jarvis Landry shoots the top of your group.

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!

Leave a comment Posted on October 8, 2015 Fantasy Football

NFL Week 5 Fantasy Mailbag

We’re now a quarter of the way into the season but for most of you, we’re actually 30% of the way there as your Fantasy league’s regular season probably goes through Week 13.

In no way am I adding any pressure on you to turn things around or anything. Relax.

Here are your best performers so far at each position so far.

Quarterbacks

5. Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – 988 pass yards, 8 TD / 4 INT, 111 rush yards

4. Carson Palmer (AZ) – 1,155 pass yards, 10 TD / 3 INT

3. Andy Dalton (CIN) – 1,187 pass yards, 9 TD / 1 INT

2. Tom Brady (NE) – (Week 4 Bye) 1,112 pass yards, 9 TD / 0 INT

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 995 pass yards, 11 TD / 0 INT, 107 rush yards

Running Backs

5. Matt Forte (CHI) – 367 rush yards, 1 TD, 133 rec. yards, 13 catches

4. Mark Ingram (NO) – 204 rush yards, 2 TD, 203 rec. yards, 22 catches

3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) – 372 rush yards, 3 TD, 92 rec. yards, 9 catches

2. Jamaal Charles (KC) – 306 rush yards, 4 TD, 151 rec. yards, 20 catches, 1 TD

1. Devonta Freeman (ATL) – 252 rush yards, 7 TD, 196 rec. yards, 17 catches

Wide Receivers

5. DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) – 31 catches, 409 rec. yards, 3 TD

4. Antonio Brown (PIT) – 34 catches, 478 rec. yards, 2 TD, 70 return yards

3. Travis Benjamin (CLE) – 16 catches, 328 rec. yards, 4 TD, 214 return yards, 1 TD

2. Larry Fitzgerald (AZ) – 30 catches, 432 rec. yards, 5 TD

1. Julio Jones (ATL) – 38 catches, 478 rec. yards, 4 TD

Tight Ends

5. Charles Clay (BUF) – 21 catches, 255 yards, 2 TD

4. Tyler Eifert (CIN) – 16 catches, 222 yards, 3 TD

3. Jason Witten (DAL) – 25 catches, 238 yards, 2 TD

2. Travis Kelce (KC) – 21 catches, 293 yards, 2 TD

1. Rob Gronkowski (NE) – 16 catches, 308 yards, 4 TD

Mail Time!

Starting with your WRs…

Sammy Watkins is still listed as Questionable and being considered day-to-day. I wouldn’t bank on him going this weekend, nor do I like Michael Crabtree against the Broncos defense. Denver’s pass defense is currently tops in the NFL…Eddie Royal, on the other hand, goes against the league’s worst pass defense when it comes to allowing WR touchdowns. The Bears also appear to be getting Alshon Jeffery back, which will only soften the coverage on Royal. So yeah, Royal.

While I don’t love starting anyone against the Seahawks defense, Andy Dalton (aka “ADalt” in my Fantasy world) has been too good to sit this season. Dalton is throwing 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in all of his games so far, and Seattle has faced only 1 decent quarterback so far.

I know Bruce Arians is dubbing Chris Johnson as the #1 running back in Arizona, but I’m not sure how much weight that holds when he has Andre Ellington back. Detroit’s run defense has only given up more than 50 yards once, and that was to Adrian peterson…With Sean Lee and Orlando Scandrick out, I think the Cowboys are in big trouble going against New England. The #BradyRevengeTour is going call for a lot of scoring and a lot of red zone opportunities for the Patriots running backs again. If his usage in the 2nd half of Week 3 is any indication, LeGarrette Blount is going to get his.

If Andy Reid’s play calling wasn’t so conservative, I would lean toward Alex Smith. But Andy Dalton hasn’t done anything to warrant benching him yet, and I’m very eager to see what he can do against the Legion of Boom. The Bears have also somehow figured out how to get to quarterbacks after cutting ties with Jared Allen (weird).

RB: Ronnie Hillman – He’s basically a co-starter with CJ Anderson getting the same amount of touches and more production. And he’s actually reached the end zone…Tevin Coleman’s taking a backseat to Devonta Freeman and his Jim Brown-like numbers. And just no on Ryan Matthews. No.

WR: Emmanuel Sanders – If the Bears weren’t enough proof, that Raiders secondary is BAD. Sanders is also getting ALL the Peyton Manning passes, and you’re not going to get that kind of production with your other options. Then I go with Kendall Wright. The Bills have an incredible front 7 but are incredibly susceptible to the pass. Wright’s averaging 10.5 yards per target too.

I’m not an odds maker, but I would keep betting on Todd Gurley while he’s healthy.

Two reasons I like Pierre Garcon the most. (1) Even if Desean Jackson comes back this weekend, he’s not going to be 100% and only takes pressure off Garcon. (2) Kirk Cousins loves throwing to Garcon and you have to think Washington will be playing catchup against the high power Falcons offense.

I like Sproles in the flex if you get return yard points. If you have better running back options, play them…but you get the feeling he’s going to get as many chances as possible to make the team that let him go pay for it.

(1) Derek Carr is either going to show us all how good he can be, or he’s going to get his ass kicked by the best pass defense in the league. If Alex Smith is your best available option, you can try him…however, I like Jay Cutler even better in his game against the KC D that’s giving up the most passing TDs in the league.

(2) The upside is higher with Latavius Murray. He may have been put in timeout but if the Raiders want to have a chance against the Broncos D, I think he’s learned his lesson. Cardinals front 7 is too good for me to feel comfortable starting Abdullah ahead of him, despite the strong showing he had against the Seahawks.

(3). If I’m picking 3, I’m not playing Carlos Hyde. The Giants run defense is one of the best in the NFL and this is what the 49ers offense looks like:

I know Breesus, King of the Drews, just threw his 400th touchdown but Carson Palmer is far more trustworthy this season at this point.

TJ Yeldon finally eclipsed 100 yards and his next matchup should make Fantasy owners hungry. The Bucs are giving up the 3rd most rushing yards and a touchdown to running backs in 3 of their first 4 games. Given the matchups and Jack Del Rio’s benching trigger finger, I feel much better about Yeldon.

I would go with neither of the Kearses. Seattle WRs are more unpredictable than Belichick running backs and retired defensive players are retired defensive players…Snead got more snaps than any Saints WR last week and I say roll with the Waiver Flavor of the Week.

Have more lineup questions? Feel free to ask on both Facebook and Twitter! Also, don’t hesitate to post any questions for next week’s Mailbag. Good luck this weekend!

5 Comments Posted on August 25, 2015August 26, 2015 Fantasy Football, sports

Fantasy Cheat Sheet 2015: Tight Ends

You have to love how the Tight End position has evolved over the years. Every since Tony Gonzalez hit the scene, former basketball players and big wide receivers have converted into heavy hitters in Fantasy Football.

I wouldn’t take one in the first round, but here are my Top 20 and where you should look to take them.

1.Rob Gronkowski, NE

2014: 1,124 rec yards, 82 catches, 12 TD

Regardless if it’s Brady throwing or if it’s Garoppolo, Gronk will smash. However, he’s not going to be 1^st round worthy like he’s projected. Great player but he won’t carry your team enough to give up picking a high end point producing skilled player.

Pick 2^nd Round

2. Jimmy Graham, SEA

2014: 889 rec yards, 85 catches, 10 TDs

Graham was a bit inconsistent last season, partially thanks to Drew Brees and being injured. He’s being downplayed in Seattle, but I think he’s a perfect fit with Russell Wilson. Could be a touchdown machine.

Pick 3^rd Round

3. Martellus Bennett, CHI

2014: 916 rec yards, 90 catches, 6 TDs

Martysaurus could do big things this season. “Denver-Julius Thomas” big things. He was spread out in the first preseason game like Thomas was in the Gase system, and that makes him dangerous around the end zone. He was targeted nearly as much as Gronk last season and that shouldn’t change.

Pick 4^th or 5^th Round

4. Greg Olsen, CAR

2014: 1008 rec yards, 84 catches, 6 TDs

Olsen and Benjamin are Cam’s best two offensive options again this year. Olsen seems to be more helpful in between the 20s and that helps for reception and yard points.

Pick 5^th Round

5. Travis Kelce, KC

2014: 862 rec yards, 67 catches, 5 TDs

Kelce is solid and seems more reliable for Alex Smith than his receivers are. The offense runs through Jamaal Charles but on 3^rd down and in the red zone, Kelce is key.

Pick 5^th or 6^th Round

6. Jason Witten, DAL

2014: 704 rec yards, 64 catches, 5 TDs

The more unsure we get about the Cowboys running backs, the better I feel about Tony Romo throwing more to Bryant and Witten. Witten isn’t as athletic as he used to be, but he is gets the job done.

Pick 7^th Round

7. Jordan Cameron, MIA

2014: 424 rec yards, 24 catches, 2 TDs

Cameron dealt with a mess last year in Cleveland. I would expect him to bounce back pretty well with Tannehill at quarterback, who will benefit from having a bigger target in the red zone.

Pick 7^th Round

8. Zach Ertz, PHI

2014: 702 rec yards, 58 catches, 3 TDs

If the Eagles quarterbacks are going to be any good, they’re going to have to rely heavily on Ertz, who is the best pass catcher they have. He’ll also be valuable as a compliment to pounding the rock with Murray.

Pick 7^th Round

9. Delanie Walker, TEN

2014: 890 rec yards, 63 catches 4 TDs

A rookie quarterback’s best friend is his tight end, and Delanie Walker is a fast one. Walker missed the first preseason game because he was coming back from a thumb injury, but I expect him to help calm Mariota’s nerves in no time.

Pick 8^th Round

10. Kyle Rudolph, MIN

2014: 231 rec yards, 24 catches, 2 TDs

I think Rudolph will be a steal in mid to late rounds because Vikings OC Norv Turner LOVES his tight ends. Rudolph was banged up a bit last season but should play well with a further developed Bridgewater at quarterback.

Has 8^th Round Value but you’ll find him available 10th round

11. Julius Thomas, JAX

2014: 489 rec yards, 43 catches, 12 TDs

Thomas was successful because of Peyton Manning and the Adam Gase offense. Now he’s in Jacksonville where star players can’t stay healthy and longtime Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis is also there. Thomas won’t get as many looks but has a chance to prove that he’s better than just a system receiver.

Pick 8^th Round

12. Dwayne Allen, IND

2014: 395 rec yards, 29 catches, 8 TDs

Coby Fleener is also in Indy, but Dwayne Allen is the better receiver in the end zone. Luck targeted Allen 50 times last season, and I expect that to go up with Gore established in the run game.

Pick 10^th Round

13. Owen Daniels, DEN

2014: 527 rec yards, 48 catches, 4 TDs

Broncos HC Gary Kubiak always brings his favorite TE along, “old reliable” Owen Daniels. Sometimes Daniels looked very good as a TD threat, and a lot of times he was nowhere to be found. Decent late round backup

Pick 11^th Round

14. Larry Donnell, NYG

2014: 623 rec yards, 64 catches, 6 TDs

Larry Donnell is dealing with tendonitis in his Achilles but the Giants don’t seem worried about him missing Week 1. He put together some of the best games for tight ends, and sometimes didn’t do much at all. Expect him to be much more consistent in year 2 of the new offensive system.

Pick 11^th Round

15. Jordan Reed, WAS

2014: 465 rec yards, 50 catches

With Niles Paul out for the season, Jordan Reed is the man for Washington. RG-III plays well with TEs, especially in the red zone, and Reed is an excellent weapon when healthy.

Pick 12th Round

16. Antonio Gates, SD

2014: 821 rec yards, 69 catches, 12 TDs

Even though Gates is missing 4 games for suspension, you aren’t drafting to use him that early in the season anyway. Although Ladarius Green will be getting an audition to start the season, Gates is still one of the best ever at the position and will be an excellent weapon to have in your pocket

Pick Late Rounds

Tyler Eifert, CIN

2014: 37 rec yards, 3 catches

Eifert didn’t do anything last year, literally. But now Jermaine Gresham is gone and Eifert is the #1 TE in Cincy, so you have to think production will only go up from here.

Pick Late Rounds

18. Ladarius Green, SD

2014: 226 rec yards, 19 catches

Green is getting a crack at showing he can take over when Antonio Gates is done or hurt (or suspended longer). If Philip Rivers can’t make him worth your while, nobody can.

Pick Late Rounds

19. Josh Hill, NO

2014: 176 rec yards, 14 catches, 5 TDs

Jimmy Graham’s replacement caught a decent number of touchdowns last year, but is taking reps with the 2^nd team so far this preseason. Decent fill in for a back up spot, or an easy drop when you want to add someone better.

Pick Late

20. Heath Miller, PIT

2014: 761 rec yards, 66 catches, 3 TDs

Heath is usually a fill in guy when you need a spot start at TE or someone gets injured. Really it just helps to have him already because Roethlisberger will always have him as a security blanket when he needs one.

Pick Late

Do your rankings look different? Let me know on Facebook and Twitter!

Also…

Quarterbacks Cheat Sheet

Running Backs Cheat Sheet

Wide Receivers Cheat Sheet

Defenses & Kickers Cheat Sheet

Leave a comment Posted on February 6, 2015February 6, 2015 Fantasy Football, sports

Fantasy Evaluations From Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots & Seahawks

By now, you know THE PLAY very well.

And the reactions that followed.

Patriots fans, Seahawks fans, and the rest of the world helped make Super Bowl 49 the highest rated television program in U.S. History. 114.5 million viewers watched the whole game and 118.5 million were tuned in for Katy Perry and her giant robot lion.

That thing was impressive and terrifying all at once.

In a blink of an eye though, football was over. The 2014-15 season was wrapped up with a championship game that represented it perfectly…INSANE. And one of the best Super Bowls in league history was made so by some of this past Fantasy season’s best.

If you’re like me, you already can’t wait to draft your next Fantasy team. So why not start looking ahead and beginning your draft board? Let’s take a look at the key contributors from last weekend’s game and others with Fantasy value.

Beginning with…

The New England Patriots

Tom Brady

In terms of Fantasy Football, Tom Brady had a bounce back year. While his yardage and record were consistent with last season, Brady threw more touchdowns (33) and less interceptions (9). He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of his 16 starts in 2014, and at least one in every game other than Week 17 when he left early to rest for Jimmy Garoppolo. (But you shouldn’t be worried about Week 17, if you know what’s good for you.) After a difficult first 4 weeks, Brady tore it up by leading Fantasy owners to the playoffs with 24 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions over 8 weeks.

Where to draft him next season?

At the age of 37, Brady ranked 5th in touchdown passes, 5th in passer rating, and 10th in yardage. He slipped pretty far in drafts last season, but he should be available for you to grab in rounds 4-6 this year. Grab your key position players first and Brady will compliment them greatly.

Julian Edelman

If Tom Brady didn’t win the Super Bowl XLIX MVP, Julian Edelman could have. Was there a gutsier player in the game? Edelman made catch after catch, and was blown up doing so…

Edelman’s performance was a thing of football folklore, much like his career so far. The former Kent State quarterback has filled in nicely as Tom Brady’s favorite wide receiver target after the departure of Wes Welker. In the past two seasons, Edelman has caught 197 passes in 30 games played. PPR league players have to like the 6.5 catches a game, 2,028 yards receiving in that span, and Edelman’s return ability.

Where to draft him…

There are two concerns with Edelman. #1 is targets in the red zone. In between the 20’s, Edelman is a great possession option for Brady, and his catch totals are evident of that. In the end zone though, Brady likes to spread the wealth (or throw to Gronk). The 2nd concern is the wear and tear Edelman has compiled early in his career. The hit you see above wasn’t his first rodeo (over the middle with a hard hitting safety)…Edelman makes a solid WR2 option, target him in your 5th-7th rounds. He’d be a steal past that. Moves like this on top end defensive backs like the Seahawks have make you optimistic.

Rob Gronkowski

The AP “Comeback Player of The Year” was more than deserving of the honor. Like Tom Brady, Gronk’s production skyrocketed after Week 4. Correlation?…While Gronkowski had caught touchdowns in 3 of the first 4 games of the season, his usage increased from 6.5 targets per game to 9.5 (Weeks 5-16) and he finished with a Top 5 total of 12 touchdowns.

Where to draft him…

Gronkowski was a steal for me in two leagues, falling to the 4th round in both. No way he’ll be available there in your next draft. With the uncertainty of what’s next for Julius Thomas and the dip in Jimmy Graham’s production, Gronk becomes the #1 tight end on your draft board. I wouldn’t expect him to escape the 2nd round in anybody’s respectable draft.

Shane Vereen

Bill Belichick’s running backs should always come with a warning label: MAY CAUSE INCREASE IN BLOOD PRESSURE. I couldn’t help but appreciate Shane Vereen’s game during the Super Bowl though. He only had 4 rushes for 13 yards but he led the team in receptions with 11 for 64 yards on 12 targets. The rule with Patriots running backs is when they are trailing, Shane Vereen is their guy. He led all the RBs with 838 yards from scrimmage while Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden all combined for 1,175 yards.

Where to draft him…

You’ll likely see Vereen overrated on many draft boards and going way too early in mock drafts. Why? He only scored 5 touchdowns total last season, and that’s not production you want out of a depended RB. Draft Vereen late to have as a fill-in flex option. When the Patriots are leading, Tom Brady is throwing less and handing the ball off to anyone not named Vereen…Keep in mind that Vereen is a free agent this off-season. This advice may change depending if he signs somewhere other than New England.

The Others

Stevan Ridley – Late Round/FA pickup

LeGarrette Blount – FA Pickup

Brandon LaFell – Late Round

Danny Amendola – FA Pickup

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson

Despite his final throw of the Super Bowl, Russell Wilson is a winner. Just 3 seasons in the NFL with a 36-12 record, one Super Bowl ring, and 2 trips are more than enough evidence of that. Fantasy wise the season total numbers weren’t eye-popping, but there were individual games that were.

Week 5 @ Washington – 201 pass yards, 2 TDs / 122 rush yards, 1 TD

Week 7 @ St. Louis – 313 pass yards, 2 TDs / 106 rush yards, 1 TD

Week 16 @ Arizona – 339 pass yards, 2 TD / 88 rush yards, 1 TD

Those were games you should have won if you had him. Something Wilson was missing, however, was a true #1 receiver to throw to…preferably a big body receiver who could win jump balls in the end zone. If the Seahawks are able to add one this offseason, “DangerRuss” would be more than deserving of the nickname.

Where to draft him…

Russell Wilson could have been found on the waiver wire for you last season, and rightfully so. The point production wasn’t altogether consistent enough for a dependable Fantasy starter but the floor with Wilson is that of a very good backup. If he gets a big receiver, as noted earlier, he becomes a mid round pick for you. Lowest he should go is in the 10th round. No way should Wilson go undrafted.

Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch was the best Fantasy football player featured in Super Bowl 49. Say what you want about his relationship with the media (this should help change your mind), the man can ball. Lynch led the league in total touchdowns (rush/receiving) with 17, led in rush TDs (13), ranked 4th in rush yards (1,306), and was Top 5 in touches, yards from scrimmage, and rushing yards per game. He turns 29 in April this year and has considerable pay bump awaiting him which suggests he’s capable of producing like that again.

Where to draft him…

The verdict is still out on whether or not Lynch wants to play next season but if he does, you take him in the first round. DeMarco Murray and Le’Veon Bell rank ahead of him, but Lynch is first round material without a doubt.

Chris Matthews

Had the Seahawks won the game, we’d be using the “folklore” verbiage with Chris Matthews a lot more than we have with Edelman. Matthews was a former junior college and Kentucky player, played in the CFL, worked at Foot Locker at one point, recovered the onside kick that beat the Packers…Then he caught 4 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl.

Where to draft him…

You don’t. Matthews is a cool story. A 6’5 receiver who can make plays, obviously, but hasn’t really done anything to warrant you rolling the dice on him in your Fantasy draft. He doesn’t have much of a Pro Football Reference page to reference to. The Seahawks offense will be one to watch after this past weekend though, Matthews included.

The Others

Doug Baldwin – FA

Jermaine Kearse – Late Rounds

Luke Wilson – FA…and because his name is Luke Wilson?

Got thoughts or questions? Let me know on Twitter @Mike_PiFF03.

Leave a comment Posted on November 20, 2014 Fantasy Football, NFL, sports

NFL Week 12 Fantasy Mailbag

Playoffs?!

Yes, Jim…playoffs.

A few of you aren’t stressing too bad about the idea because you’ve either clinched your playoff spot already, or your record indicates that your season is already over.

Many of you, though, are fighting tooth and nail for the last available spots in your league. The difference between keeping your season alive or playing in the superbly underwhelming consolation bracket could be an Andrew Luck pass to his left tackle…

(Good for you, Anthony.)

…or a Joe Haden interception.

So who will be the difference maker for your squad when EVERY…POINT…COUNTS? You’re looking for who’s hot, who’s consistent, and who has the best matchup:

Who’s hot?

Aaron Rodgers, that’s who. Rodgers has led his team to back-to-back 50 point games. He averaged 328 yards and 4.5 touchdowns without having to play in the 4th quarter of either of those games. His top 2 wide receivers, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, are on pace to break the league’s record for combined touchdown catches in a season, set by Wes Welker and Randy Moss in 2007. Now Rodgers faces a Vikings defense that has allowed a 75% completion percentage in their last 4 meetings and 3 or more touchdowns in 5 of the last 8 games against him.

Who’s consistent?

Despite the team’s turmoil in the offseason, and having to deal with a pair of touchdown vultures in Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro, Justin Forsett has been one of the league’s most consistent backs not named “DeMarco Murray”. Forsett has totaled at least 85 yards in each of his last 8 games and leads the league with 5.4 yards per carry. The Ravens are coming off a bye week to face the Saints on Monday Night Football and that should bode well for Forsett. The Saints have allowed a total of 430 yards to Jeremy Hill, Frank Gore, and Eddie Lacy in 3 of the last 4 weeks.

Who has the best matchup?

Aside from the guys who Rodgers throws to, it’s Dez Bryant against the Giants. Bryant leads the league in targets from within the 5 yard line with 7, which is more than the carries that most of the top running backs are getting from that distance. Bryant’s been on a scoring tear since his catching 9 passes for 151 yards in Week 7 against the Giants. He’s averaging 6 catches and 94 yards in his last 5 games against New York who will be without Prince Amukamara this weekend.

Quick Hits

Don’t know if you’ve heard, but it’s cold outside (everywhere but Miami). I’m not sure if anybody has had it as bad as upstate New York, but I’m becoming a bigger Bills fan each for it. From Scuzzy Kicker Dan Carpenter shoveling 4 feet of snow out of his elderly neighbors’ driveways or Mario Williams helping out Hall of Famer Jim Kelly, they’re just so damn likable. If you want to feel better about your current climate, I recommend checking out this compilation of snowy photos by the Bills players. Buffalo is expecting 7 feet of snow this Sunday so wherever they play, anticipate some #OrtonMagic against the Jets (he threw 4 TDs against them in Week 8)

(I don’t apologize for embedding this at all.)

Why isn’t JJ Watt available as a tight end yet in most league? He officially kicked off the Ryan Mallett era in Houston last weekend catching his 2nd touchdown pass of the season…and I’m sure Mallett would love having Watt line up for him in the red zone for the rest of the season. Note: Watt has 4 touchdowns total this season. If the Texans actually made a run at the playoffs, he could be your MVP this season.

Speaking of MVP candidates, is Gronk in the conversation? He should be. A big reason for New England’s turnaround since Week 4 is Rob Gronkowski returning to form. He has 5 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and 9 total on the season. Gronk is also doing it after the catch, which makes life easier for Tom Brady.

And on that note…mail time? Mail time.

DB Moenning on Facebook: “Who to start – Denard Robinson v. Colts, Trent Richardson v. Jags, Jonas Gray v. Lions?”

If you hadn’t asked about him, Denard Robinson would likely have gotten a shoutout much earlier in this post for his consistency. Since taking over #1 running back duties in Week 7, he’s averaging 97 rush yards per game and scored 4 touchdowns in the 4 weeks before the bye. He faces a Colts defense this week that has allowed 140+ total yards to backs in 3 of their last 5 games. And they also let *gasp* Jonas Gray happen…By now, you know the story. His 200 yards and 4 touchdowns last week against Indy are probably why Jonas Gray is a part of this question right now. It was a classic Bill Belichick game plan. If his opponent is weak against the run, he will stomp them with whoever lines up in the backfield. That won’t be the case this week against the league’s best run defense. Expect more work for Shane Vereen through the air…While Trent Richardson isn’t a bad play against the Jaguars and no Ahmad Bradshaw, Robinson is your guy this week.

Pat Bauers on Facebook: “Owen Daniels or Vernon Davis?”

Does Vernon Davis still play for the Niners? You really couldn’t tell by the way he’s been used this season. He had a plum matchup against the Giants last week and caught just one pass. Based on the way this entire season has gone for Davis, I really don’t expect anything special from him this weekend…even against Washington. Go with Owen Daniels. Saints haven’t allowed much to tight ends, but Jermaine Gresham did score twice last week against them. Daniels is also another week healthier coming off the Ravens bye week and was picking up more and more targets going into it.

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Charles Sims, Chris Ivory, or Jerick McKinnon?”

Not very high on any of your options, but Jerick McKinnon is your best bet. He and Matt Asiata combined for 118 yards against the Packers in their previous meeting, and it will be in the Vikings best interest to play the “time of possession” game this weekend. The Packers are also allowing the 8th most rush yards this season, and McKinnon is clearly the best run option up until the Vikings get to the 5 yard line…Next best will be Chris Ivory who has slipped as of late, but did score 2 TDs against the Bills in their previous meeting.

Billy Quesse on Facebook: “Flex: Mohamed Sanu, Cecil Shorts, Cordarrelle Patterson or Fred Jackson”

With Sanu losing targets dramatically because of AJ Green’s return, Fred Jackson having to face the stout Jets run defense and not 100%, and Cordarrelle Patterson just being bad…go with Cecil Shorts. He’s picking up all the targets that Allen Robinson left by going on IR. Allen Hurns is more boom or bust on the opposite side of the field while Shorts is the possession option.

Feel free to ask more questions through the weekend on Facebook and Twitter.