NFL Week 10 Fantasy Mailbag

Ben Roethlisberger…

Ben Face

I owe you an apology.

Last week I was asked if I would pick up Big Ben or Alex Smith to start with Tony Romo being out. I went with Alex Smith and felt pretty good about it.

In 10 games against Baltimore, Roethlisberger has only thrown more than one touchdown twice. The Ravens have also allowed the fewest passing touchdowns this season, less than 1 per game…”

And with Alex Smith pulling plays like this off…

I felt even better about the advice I gave.

For the second week in a row, Roethlisberger threw 6 touchdown passes and added 340 yards with it. He also has a fantastic matchup this week against the Jets pass defense. So for anyone who took my advice and lost with without Big Ben’s 6 TDs…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rwPovyR9HY

Moving on now.

Quick Hits

  • Outside of some criticism of meteorologists, everything seems to being going right for Patriots. Since throwing two interceptions in a blow out loss to Kansas City, Tom Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns and just one interception. But even Brady can’t believe how well his tight end is playing…
  • The Packers may be rolling and the Bears might be desperate for a win, but none of that is stopping Matt Forte. Forte is second in the league in catches, third in touches, and gained 171 total yards against the Packers in Week 4. The Packers have given up 5.2 yards per carry to Matt Asiata, Lamar Miller, Jonathan Stewart and Mark Ingram. Even if the Packers jump out ahead early, Forte will get the targets like he has all season…Also, tomorrow is the 15 year anniversary of Bryan Robinson’s game winning field goal block at Lambeau…Any given Sunday, Bears fans. Any given Sunday.
  • Have you picked up Kyle Orton yet? I have…to back up Tony Romo (like old times). Since the Bills signed him to take over for E.J. Manuel, Orton is averaging 282 yards per game and has thrown multiple TDs in 3 of his 4 games…including 4 against the Jets before last week’s bye week. Tougher matchup against Kansas City this week, but still good spot start if you need him.

Kyle Orton GIF

 

 

Brian Chimino on Facebook: “Tempted to play Derek Carr over Colin Kaepernick.”

I don’t blame you. Derek Carr has only had one really bad game in his last 4 starts and is coming off a solid 194 yard 2 touchdown performance on the road against the Seahawks defense. The Broncos are also allowing 270 yards and 2 touchdowns passing per game, albeit with a lot of garbage time but still start worthy…I don’t trust Colin Kaepernick. I don’t trust the Saints defense much more but they did hold Cam Newton to just 151 yards passing and 40 yards rushing last week. The upside is higher with Kaepernick but he’s only thrown more than one touchdown twice all season…Go with your gut and start Carr.

 

Ryan Suarez on Facebook: “Stafford or Tannehill?”

Same game decision here and one I like this week. Both are going against tough defenses but one of them is getting Calvin Johnson back. Before Megatron went inactive, Matt Stafford averaged 281 yards per game. He suffered a lull but found his groove again with 299 and 325 yards back to back with 2 TDs in each game before the bye week…While Ryan Tannehill is coming off his best game of the season, he still has to face the stingiest defense against quarterbacks in terms of fantasy football. Go with Stafford with the Megatron bump. At the very least, Johnson will draw double coverage to open things up for Golden Tate again.

 

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Chris Ivory, Roddy White or Percy Harvin? Pick 2…And thoughts on Charles Sims.”

After just two weeks in the Jets system, Percy Harvin has established himself as the focal point in their passing game. He was targeted 13 times (second most in the NFL week 9) for 11 receptions last week (most in the league). With the Steelers offense rolling right now, have to think the Jets will be busy playing catchup which benefits Harvin, but not Chris Ivory. I would also go with Roddy White against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, Tampa Bay.

Charles Sims looks like he’ll be making his pro debut this week, but I wouldn’t expect that big of a work load for him yet. Bobby Rainey is the feature back in Tampa, but the bigger concern to me is Josh McCown getting the start. That thing didn’t work the first time this season, and I’m puzzled as to why Lovie Smith wants to go back to it again. Turnovers and a lack of possession time with McCown under center doesn’t help Sims’s cause early on.

 

DB Moenning on Facebook: “Pick 2: AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu, and Golden Tate.”

If you have a healthy AJ Green, you start him. I would actually say yes to starting Mohamed Sanu this week against a bad Browns pass defense, but Golden Tate has been too good to keep out of the lineup. Yes, Calvin is going to take targets away from Tate but he is averaging 10 yards per target and is second among receivers after the catch. As I mentioned before, Megatron back in the lineup helps Tate more than hurts him.

 

Sam Latham on Facebook: “Travis Kelce or Jason Witten?”

There is really one big IF involved with this. If Tony Romo plays this weekend, play Jason Witten. Even injured, Witten becomes the possession for Romo in shorter routes and the Jaguars have allowed the 7th most yards to tight ends this season..If Romo is out, play Travis Kelce. Kelce is more of a red zone target in the Chiefs system, but he has a touchdown in 4 of his last 6 games.

 

Brennan Casey on Facebook: “Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, and Mohamed Sanu? Pick 2”

I like Sammy Watkins and Alshon Jeffery in this group and I’ll tell you why…Kyle Orton has put Watkins over the top fantasy-wise since joining the Bills. He’s the clear #1 receiver and is the only WR getting thrown to from 5 yards in. Keep an eye on the groin injury though and go with Kelvin Benjamin in case Watkins doesn’t start…Jeffery seems to have been quiet for a lot of the season, but realistically has scored or gained over 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games. The Packers secondary is beat up with Sam Shields and Morgan Burnett dealing with injuries. There also seems to be a “now or never” feeling with the Bears offense this weekend. Going against a Packers defense that has allowed the most red zone touches to wide receivers bodes well.

 

And last but not least, it’s #NationalNachoDay. So go crazy kids.

 

Feel free to ask more questions on Twitter

 

NFL Week 9 Fantasy Mailbag

We’ve officially hit the halfway point of the 2014 NFL regular season, which is more than halfway through your Fantasy season. And if you have more than one of these stars, you’re likely sitting pretty at this point.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck – 22 Touchdown Passes / 9 Interceptions, 2,731 pass yards

Peyton Manning – 22 TD / 3 INT, 2,136 yards

Philip Rivers – 20 TD / 5 INT, 2,213 yards

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray – 7 Touchdowns rushing, 1,054 rush yards / 26 receptions, 239 yards

Arian Foster – 7 TD, 766 rush yards / 24 rec., 166 yards 2 TD

Matt Forte – 3 TD, 562 rush yards / 58 rec., 490 yards 3 TD

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown – 7 Touchdowns receiving, 60 receptions, 852 yards

Demaryius Thomas – 6 TD, 47 rec., 767 yards

Randal Cobb – 9 TD, 40 rec., 578 yards

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski – 7 TD, 40 rec., 558 yards

Antonio Gates – 9 TD, 32 rec., 417 yards

Julius Thomas – 9 TD, 30 rec., 327 yards

However…

There’s plenty of football left and all it takes is making the playoffs to contend for your league’s title. Who knows? You could get a Ben Roethlisberger 6 TD, 500 yard day…

Big Ben TD

or you could be screaming into nearest inanimate like this guy.

Rivers hates his helmet

Lindsey Sikula-Hutagalung on Facebook: “Will he be ok to play or do I need to pick someone up?…Ben Roethlisberger or Alex Smith?”

The latest on Tony Romo is that his head coach is optimistic he will start on Sunday. Romo hasn’t practiced yet this week and it’s looking like a game-time decision to see how he handles the pain. If you have a roster spot to spare, you should still pick up a backup plan in case Romo is ruled out.

I don’t think Ben Roethlisberger is going to be throwing 6 touchdowns and 500 yards again anytime soon, nor do I think he’s going to be doing it against the Ravens. In 10 games against Baltimore, Roethlisberger has only thrown more than one touchdown twice. The Ravens have also allowed the fewest passing touchdowns this season, less than 1 per game…Alex Smith, on the other hand, hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver yet this season. That can change against the Jets who just let Kyle Orton throw 4 touchdowns on them. Should have been 5…

Sammy Watkins tackled

Considering what Jamaal Charles and Kniles Davis can do after the catch as well, Smith will be the safer bet.

Emmet Fairfield on Facebook: “W/R/T spot: Jonathan Stewart or Dwayne Allen?”

Jonathan Stewart is finally healthy again, but it looks like Deangello Williams will be getting the start tonight. Had Stewart gotten the backfield to himself tonight, I would have recommended him to start…However, the Giants have allowed 4 touchdowns to tight ends in their last 3 games. Start Dwayne Allen who should be keep the trend going.

Ryan Suarez on Facebook: “Flex spot: Doug Baldwin, V-Jax, or Bobby Rainey?”

While Doug Baldwin is getting plenty more usage lately following the Percy Harvin trade, his offense doesn’t really make him a primary target as Russell Wilson likes to spread the wealth…Go with Bobby Rainey this weekend against a bad Cleveland defense that is allowing the 2nd most yards per carry and nearly a touchdown per game to running backs. Rainey is also the only one in Tampa’s backfield, so he’ll be getting plenty of work.

John Hayes on Facebook: “Brandin Cooks or Mohamed Sanu?”

Two decent options, but who will be the most reliable? Brandin Cooks played great last week, and he usually does at home. Cooks averages 8 catches and 75 yards per game at home. Much like the rest of the Saints though, there’s a drop off in production on the road as Cooks averages 4 catches and 37 yards away from the Superdome. However, Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing receivers…It looks like AJ Green will be back to play this week. Some suggest he could be used as a decoy like Calvin Johnson had been weeks ago, but I don’t buy it. Andy Dalton is better throwing to more options so that should take some targets away from Mohamed Sanu…Go with Cooks tonight as the Saints offense seems to be clicking after beating the Packers.

Brennan Casey on Twitter: “Flex spot: Doug Baldwin or Branden Oliver?”

I’ve already given my thoughts on Baldwin, but I would still go with Branden Oliver between these two. Oliver is still the feature back with Ryan Matthews out another week and he is also a factor in the run game. Take into account the Dolphins allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denard Robinson last week, Oliver could have a solid day for you.

Feel free to ask more questions on Twitter or Facebook through the weekend.

NFL Week 8 Fantasy Mailbag

I know this graphic has made the rounds since Sunday night, but I would like to share it again for some perspective of how good Peyton Manning has been over the course of his career.

Peyton Manning TDs

The most marketable man in sports surpassed Brett Favre as the all-time leader in touchdown passes. When I look at the graphic above, I think “Dang! Peyton sure did get a lot of guys paid.”

Of course this is how they thank him.

Congrats, Peyton. Looking forward to more great moments down the road.

Quick Hits

– Antonio Brown has been a monster this season. Brown is the only receiver with 50 catches so far this season, 719 yards and 5 touchdowns, and even a touchdown points. Colts Punter Pat McAfee is very aware and has one request:

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.50.18 PM

Have fun with that, Pat.

– The Rams pulled off a stunner against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, but think about this…After facing Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, and Frank Gore the Rams defense has only allowed one touchdown to opposing running backs. Let’s see how they fair against Jamaal Charles this weekend. The Chiefs new all-time leading rusher has at least 84 yards over his last 3 games and 4 touchdowns during that time. Hopefully the side effects of this hit aren’t lingering.

Jamaal

AND DON’T FORGET!

The Lions and the Falcons play in London this weekend. Kickoff is set for 8:30 CDT. With Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson looking like game time decisions, you may want to be awake if you have them on your team…or you’ll be complaining EXACTLY like this.

And now for something completely different.

Matt Kuna on Twitter: “Branden Oliver or Mark Ingram?”

Everyone loves making the Branden Oliver comparison to Darren Sproles, and that’s easy considering both backs are short and have worn the number 43 in San Diego. But I like Oliver to more of a vintage Maurice Jones-Drew who relies more on shiftiness and strength rather than speed. Oliver has been a solid pickup for most fantasy owners and is making the most out of his opportunity as the Chargers feature back. We saw his carries limited against the time of possession “keep away” game the Chiefs played, and unfortunately I think he’ll be limited again but for a different reason. The effect Peyton Manning has on opposing offenses is astounding. Because most teams need to play catchup with the Broncos after Manning has lit up the board a few times early, they abandon the run completely. The Broncos defense has seen less than 18 rushes attempted against them per game this season…For those keeping score, I haven’t been Mark Ingram’s biggest fan. This week is a very different story. Pierre Thomas is out for the next 2 weeks and Khiry Robinson is dinged up as well with a forearm injury. After missing 3 weeks, Ingram had the most touches last week and he will be THE back for the Saints at home against Green Bay. Go with Ingram against a Packers defense that is 9th worst against the run. I think your best bet for Oliver will be through the air and he is a decent pass catcher. I just don’t think he’ll get the touches that Ingram will.

Ryan Suarez on Facebook: “Doug Martin or Justin Forsett?”

Doug Martin is a flex player at best, in my opinion, and I would never advise someone to play him unless it’s against a bad team. The Vikings are one of those teams I would be okay letting Martin play against because they give up the 4th most rushing and eighth most receiving to opposing backs…But if you’re looking for consistency and dependable scoring, go with Justin Forsett. In his first meeting against the Bengals, Forsett had 70 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. The Bengals allowed 129 rush yards combined to Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw, and 203 yards to the duo of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen 2 weeks prior. While Bernard Pierce has vultured some TDs in the red zone, Forsett is still getting it done between the 20’s and will have his chances this weekend.

Kyle Doyle on Facebook: “Darren McFadden, Ronnie Hillman, or Anthony Dixon RB2”

Tonight should be a good one for Ronnie Hillman. The Chargers allow the most catches to running backs and the most receiving touchdowns. Hillman has also distinguished himself as the go-to back around the goal line in recent weeks, which was a big question when Montee Ball went down…While Denard Robinson had a coming out party against the Browns, nothing is for sure when it comes to Darren McFadden. Yes, he’s the clear feature back over MJD, but Oakland is turning into a pass-first squad with Derek Carr at the helm…And even though he’s one of the few backs left standing in Buffalo, Boobie Dixon still has to play against the Jets run defense. Nobody likes going against the Jets run defense. Start Hillman tonight.

Kirk Clark on Facebook: “Keenan Allen, Trent Richardson or Brian Quick Flex”

I don’t understand Keenan Allen. Really. For the past 4 weeks he has been awful, yet receives the most targets on the team. As I mentioned earlier, the Broncos are forcing teams to abandon the run and throw like crazy. I doubt Allen will see less balls thrown his way, but the question is if he’ll catch them. If he can’t get it done tonight, don’t ask me about him again….Trent Richardson is finally forming into a suitable running back again and has a decent matchup against the Steelers, and I like him better than Brian Quick against the Chiefs. My gut says Allen one last time, but the safe bet may be Richardson.

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Wes Welker, Roddy White, or Kelvin Benjamin? Pick 2”

First I’ll say go with Kelvin Benjamin. All Benjamin does is catch touchdowns, right? He has 5 in 7 games, and that hasn’t been the case for your other two options…Roddy White did have a “return to form” game last week, but he is facing a Detroit secondary that’s only allowing 11 receptions and 136 yards per game to opposing wide receiver groups as a whole. But I do like him better than Welker who is just struggling to find targets, despite scoring a touchdown last week. Go with Roddy second.

Brennan Casey on Facebook: “Matt Ryan or Drew Brees at QB?”

As a Drew Brees fantasy owner, I know…2 touchdowns and 330 yards has been the standard with him lately. But I do think he’ll get a chance to be more Brees’ish in a shootout in the dome with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers secondary is banged up and, quite frankly, not that great. Have to admit, while the touchdowns haven’t been typical of him, Brees is killing it in yardage as of late…I’m actually scared for Matt Ryan’s life with a bad and injured offensive line going against the Detroit Lions this weekend. Just go Brees.

Danny Kakareka on Facebook: “Reggie Bush or Chris Ivory? PPR.”

Reggie Bush has actually been downgraded for this weekend and looks like a game time decision, so I would have Chris Ivory penciled in preemptively. Not a bad thing. Ivory almost beat the Patriots by himself last week. But I also think Joique Bell has been the bigger beneficiary in the Lions backfield than Bush already.

Erin Adell on Facebook: “Delanie Walker or Owen Daniels?”

Good week to be an Own Daniels owner as Cincinnati is giving up 100 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Just go with Daniels.

Max Rapp on Facebook: “Percy Harvin or no?” (Also has Doug Baldwin)

Until I see him do something, I really can’t trust Percy Harvin. In the world of hypotheticals, I love Percy Harvin as a football player. But really, Harvin just went from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith and worse…Darrell Bevell to Marty Mornhinweg as his offensive coordinator. Harvin is staying on my bench until I see someone use him properly.

Billy Quesse on Facebook: “Cutler or Foles?”

Jay Cutler has a chance to do something this weekend that hardly anyone ever does: Win at Foxboro. The Patriots have only lost 3 games at home since 2009…but that’s not why you called. The Patriots are one of the best teams against the pass, but realistically, Cutler will be the best quarterback they have faced so far this season (Tannehill, Cassel, Carr, Alex Smith, Dalton, Orton, Geno Smith). He’s coming off his worst output in over a year, but will be facing a Patriots defense that is without Jerod Mayo and now Chandler Jones. Assume Brandon Marshall will be on Revis Island and Alshon Jeffery will draw Brandon Browner, but who will cover Martellus Bennett or Matt Forte?…Nick Foles is still down two of his offensive lineman against a very good Cardinals pass rush, but will be throwing against a secondary that is giving up nearly 300 pass yards per game. I think the matchup favors Foles, but Cutler’s upside is greater.

NFL Week 7 Fantasy Mailbag

How bout them…too cliche?

But, really…The Dallas Cowboys are 5-1. They just beat the Seahawks on the road. Nobody does that! And after a game where DeMarco Murray rushed for 115 yards and Tony Romo threw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns against the league’s best defense, left tackle Tyron Smith wins the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Smith is the first offensive lineman to win the award since former Chiefs guard Brian Waters did in 2004. That’s saying a lot (unlike Marshawn Lynch).

Admit it. You’ve been waiting anxiously for that annual Murray injury or for Romo’s back to finally give.

Romo hit

While you wait, the Cowboys keep on rolling…despite their super annoying overbearing owner. For the time being, they look like the best team in a weird NFC East. And Murray has tied Jim Brown for the most 100 yard games in a row.

More Week 6 Quick Hits

– Joe Flacco threw 5 touchdowns faster than anyone in NFL history and I started to have flashbacks of Lebron predicting Miami Heat championships…And Lovie Smith’s Tampa Bay defense continued to look like a dumpster fire.

– Phillip Rivers has put up a 120+ passer rating in an NFL record 5 straight games. Good for you, Rios

Batman Woo

(Batman! Woo!)

– Julius Thomas has caught more touchdown passes (9) than any tight end ever up to this point in a season, and has tied Calvin Johnson for the most by anyone in NFL history. Despite his recent backtracking, Thomas is making it look “too easy.”

– And today marks the 8th anniversary of one of the most ridiculous comebacks in NFL history, followed by the real reason we remember it.

And now to the Mailbag

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Mark Ingram or Chris Ivory?” and “Pick 3 – Nelson, Cobb, Tate, James Jones, Rueben Randle”

Yes. Mark Ingram is back and is said to be “100%, full tilt.” While that may be true, he’s returning to a loaded backfield against the 2nd ranked run defense in the league. While I feel good about the Saints coming off a bye week and playing in a dome, that may benefit the passing game more than Ingram…Chris Ivory is coming off a tough stretch against the AFC’s two best teams (Broncos and Chargers). It seemed like the Jets abandoned the run and thought they could keep up with the arms of Geno Smith and Michael Vick (*pause* *now laugh*). Expect Ivory to get the carries he rightfully deserves tonight in a game where the weather is forecasted to be bad with a plan focused on time of possession.

For your pick 3: Nelson, Cobb and Golden Tate. Another game without Calvin Johnson only means good things for Tate.

Ryan Suarez on Facebook: “Matthew Stafford or Kirk Cousins?”

I know his output hasn’t been the same without Megatron, but Matthew Stafford has a favorable matchup against the 8th worst pass defense at home. That is as long as his offensive line doesn’t get him killed…There has been talk of Kirk Cousins potentially getting benched for Colt McCoy. While Cousins is asking for it with his interceptions, the gunslinger numbers have still benefitted fantasy owners. Based on matchup I like Stafford more, but Cousins has the better upside and more weapons to throw to.

Sam Latham on Facebook: “James Jones or Keenan Allen?”

James Jones has certainly fallen into the role of possession receiver with Derek Carr at quarterback and Jones is getting his looks while the rookie QB is progressing…I like Keenan Allen better though this weekend. Allen averaged 107 yards and 7 catches against Kansas City last year. If Eddie Royal doesn’t suit up because of his ribs injury, that only helps Allen more.

Donald Moenning on Facebook: “Pick one for Flex Spot: Jeremy Hill, Eric Decker, Keenan Allen, Brandon LaFell, Andre Holmes” (Playing Giovanni Bernard as well)

Without AJ Green in the lineup, Cincinnati has predictably relied heavily on their run game. Why not, especially when Gio Bernard is busting out 80+ yard touchdown runs…

Gio TD

I like Jeremy Hill as well in a matchup with a Colts defense that has an achilles heel playing against the run…But if you aren’t comfortable playing two RBs from the same backfield, go with Andre Holmes who is on fire as of late. Holmes is also the established Oakland deep threat going against the 2nd worst defense defending WRs out of the end zone.

John Hayes on Facebook: “Cutler or Flacco?”

While Joe Flacco made last week’s game against Tampa look like Madden on Rookie Mode, I caution Fantasy owners to be mindful that Atlanta has one of THE WORST RUN DEFENSES IN THE LEAGUE. If John Harbaugh and Gary Kubiak can run the ball, they’re going to run the ball…Jay Cutler will have a favorable matchup at home against a Dolphins secondary that let Aaron Rodgers fake spike on them. Really? But in all seriousness, Cutler has reached must-start territory as his giant receivers are all healthy and Matt Forte is doing unprecedented things in the pass game. Cutty Does It this weekend.

Erin Adell on Facebook: “Peyton Manning or Phillip Rivers?”

Phillip Rivers (or Rios, as I like to call him) is having an M.V…FOR GOD’S SAKE, YOU HAVE PEYTON MANNING! PLAY PEYTON MANNING! Ahem…I’ll just leave this here. Because it’s #DancingManning.

Sean Yamnitz on Facebook: “Stafford or Hoyer?”

Again, I like Stafford simply for the matchup at home against the 8th worst pass defense. But Brian Hoyer has been fun to watch while Johnny Football waits on the sidelines. While Hoyer has been very efficient, that has mostly been thanks to conservative play calling setting up play action. Cleveland may let Hoyer fly against the Jaguars or they might just run like crazy. You can depend on Stafford more this weekend against the Saints.

As always, don’t be shy about asking more questions on Facebook or Twitter. Everybody Wang Chung tonight. 

NFL Week 6 Fantasy Mailbag

Just when you thought it was safe to drop Tom Brady…

cue the Jaws theme

Tom Brady hot potatoe

Did anybody have more fun in Week 5 than Mr. Suave? It’s easy to kick a guy while he’s down, especially when you’re used to seeing that guy be on top of his game for as long as Tom Brady had been. Some were even suggesting the Patriots should trade him…I took a lot of pleasure in seeing Brady be Brady again. Against the Bengals, a top 5 defense this season, Brady threw for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns. Credit his offensive line for keeping the pocket clean, but also the game plan to utilize both Rob Gronkowski and newly acquired TE Tim Wright. We’ll see if that formula works on the road in Buffalo, where the Bills defensive line is really getting after the quarterback (19 sacks, 18 hits, and 50 hurries). It was good to see Brady get his high-fives again though.

More Week 5 Recap:

– There was a united Tiger Woods style fist pump for Eddie Lacy owners. If you held onto hope (like I did), you reaped all the benefits of a 105 yard rushing, 2 TD showing against the Vikings. As the Packers offense seems to be getting back on track, expect more goal line opportunities for the 2nd year back…You should see exactly why you took him with either of your first two picks.

– Tony Romo made my favorite throw of the weekend. After nearly being Watt-Smashed, Romo shook off the $100 million monster and threw this bomb…How’s that back, Tony?

Romo bomb

– Are you okay, Percy Harvin owners? I may have lost years off of my life watching each of his 3 touchdowns called back because of penalties (2 of which were highly questionable). Here’s a reminder of what could have been.

– And wha-happened to that epic Broncos-Cardinals matchup we were looking for? It felt like a Thursday Night Football game. If you had Peyton Manning (479 yards, 4 TDs), Demaryius Thomas (8 catches, 226 yards, 2 TDs), or Julius Thomas (6 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs)…you weren’t too upset about it.

I’m happy to see that we have more than WR questions this week from the mailbag. As much as I love you guys asking me for input, variety is the spice of life.

Andrew Hirt on Facebook: “Dalton or Roethlisberger?”

We saw this question repeatedly last season. Being in the same division, there are plenty of comparisons between the two quarterbacks on a regular basis. Dalton has had a slow start scoring with just 4 touchdowns in 4 games and only 1 interception. Reason for that is the lack of attempts in Hue Jackson’s system. That could change against Carolina as the Panthers are 7th in pass attempts against them, but losing AJ Green to a foot injury in practice suggests otherwise. After the game Matt Forte had in Week 5 (61 yards rushing, 12 catches for 105 yards receiving), anticipate the bulk of the workload to go to Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill…You probably hoped for a better game out of Ben Roethlisberger against the Jacksonville defense, which makes me concerned for the Steelers offense in general. The Cleveland secondary is ripe to bounce back against though. Joe Haden is hurt and likely not playing this week. First Round draft pick Justin Gilbert was benched against Tennessee for getting continuously burned by Kendall Wright. Start Roethlisberger in the AFC North rivalry game, despite Snoop Dogg (err Lion?) hating his offensive coordinator.

Chris Hankins on Facebook: “Picked up Hillman now that Ball is out. Should I start him over Trent Richardson?”

I know you weren’t the only one to pick up Ronnie Hillman in the mad dash following Montee Ball’s injury. Keep in mind though, CJ Anderson is a favorite of Peyton Manning’s and better built for around the goal line. Only reason Anderson wasn’t active last week was because he doesn’t play special teams. Carries are sparse to begin with in the Manning system, so I don’t feel great about the potential for Hillman’s touches against an already stout Jets run defense…And then there’s Trent Richardson. Richardson continues to just be flat out underwhelming and is being outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw. Richardson a pretty weak flex start at best on the road going to Houston. The edge goes to Hillman simply for his pass catching ability.

Bob Kakareka on Facebook: “Should I trade Cobb and Megatron for Julius Thomas and Kendall Wright?”

I was asked about a Megatron trade a few weeks ago and was super confident he would bounce back from injury and do his thing again. That hasn’t happened yet and Calvin Johnson is still hurt. What makes this a tough call is Randall Cobb leading all receivers in receiving out of the slot and the Packers offense catching fire. Cobb has a great matchup this week alone going up against Cortland Finnegan. The question is how desperate are you for wins in the short term? Johnson could sit this week and be down for a few games but then come back and be Megatron again. Julius Thomas will continue getting touchdowns with Peyton Manning. And Kendall Wright has 3 favorable matchups against Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston in a row…If you need the wins now, DO IT. If you’re in a comfortable spot in the standings and think you’ll make the playoffs, don’t do it. Calvin Johnson could be your difference down the stretch.

Rachel Bruce on Facebook: “Cutler or Wilson?”

If you’re a Bears fan, Jay Cutler has probably bummed you out throwing bad interceptions at really bad instances. From a Fantasy Football standpoint though, Cutty Does It. Only Andrew Luck has thrown more touchdowns this season and he has multiple TDs in every game this season. The Falcons have one of the worst secondary units in football right now with starting safety William Moore injured. This weekend has strong shootout potential between for the Bears on the road…On and off the field, I love Russell Wilson. Wilson continues to prove he is one of the best in the league every week. However, his matchup with Cowboys is tougher than what he had against Washington on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys pass defense is much improved from a year ago, so it might be a heavy volume of Marshawn Lynch carries for the Seahawks. Go with the points and take Cutler.

Brennan Casey on Facebook: “Start 2: Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Branden Oliver.”

First, go with Branden Oliver. Oliver is a player made for the Mike McCoy offense in San Diego and you have to like his matchup against the Raiders. Even when Ryan Matthews returns, one should assume Oliver will take on the Danny Woodhead role from a year ago…This is where it gets tricky. Chris Ivory is clearly the best player in the Jets backfield, but how many chances will he get when they are forced to play from behind against the Broncos? I like Ahmad Bradshaw better after he finally got more attention than Richardson last week. Texans are the 4th worst defense against the run, and Bradshaw should be able to take advantage of that.

Sam Kalmar on Facebook: “Do I sit DeMarco murray against Seattle?”

I understand the worry when playing anyone against Seattle’s defense. They are the 2nd best run defense right now and have only given up 1 rushing touchdown. When you have the league’s leading rusher, you have to play him. DeMarco Murray is also a great threat in the pass game, and that could be the route the Cowboys offense goes if they can’t get the run going early. Keep an eye on Murray’s carries though as the season progresses. He’s on pace for more than 400 carries, and that’s just ridiculous for a back who hasn’t stayed healthy for an entire season yet.

Great stuff this week! If you have more questions, you are welcome to ask on Facebook and Twitter through the weekend.  

NFL Week 5 Fantasy Mailbag

The first quarter of the season is in the books…and how do you feel?

Andrew Luck, DeMarco Murray, and Antonio Brown owners are loving themselves a little right now.

Harline Hole in One

Cam Newton, Eddie Lacy, and Demaryius Thomas owners?…Not so much.

Tulloch ouch

However, it’s still early enough to turn things around. A waiver wire pickup here, a sell high trade there…your 0-4 team can reel off a nice streak to put you back into playoff contention. Hey! Somebody’s gotta give you some optimism, right?

Paul Chivari on Facebook: “Sammy Watkins or Andrew Hawkins?”

The Kyle Orton era has begun in Buffalo and Sammy Watkins seems to be excited about it. Watkins told reporters “He reads [defenses] quicker, the ball is coming out faster.” Orton isn’t going to set the world on fire for Buffalo, but his style is going to benefit Watkins in the box score greatly. Quick release passes on slant routes could be their bread and butter, but that’s a tall order against the league’s #2 pass defense. The Lions are tied for 4th in passing touchdowns allowed with just 4, and haven’t slowed down getting after the quarterback…In his first 3 weeks, Andrew Hawkins has consistently gotten the 10+ targets from Brian Hoyer. Hawkins is catching 7 passes per game and putting up decent yardage, but he isn’t getting into the end zone. There’s a chance that can change against a fairly pedestrian Titans pass defense…Considering what the Lions pass defense was able to do against Aaron Rodgers and Orton is getting his first licks since Dec. 29th, 2013, I feel better about Hawkins this week.

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Golden Tate or West Welker?”

Golden Tate finally reaped the rewards of lining up on the other side from Calvin Johnson, but it was a decoy Megatron against the Jets. Johnson missed practice yesterday and his status is unsure for Sunday, but I like Tate against a Bills defense giving up the 8th most against the pass…The Broncos don’t have that luxury facing the Cardinals, but Wes Welker does have an opportunity to attack vulnerable coverage over the middle. Funny how Welker had a couple weeks off for suspension, returned to catch 6 passes, and got another break with the bye. I do think Welker will get his looks against Arizona, but the potential for a majority of the Lions offense to go through Tate is greater.

Kirk Clark on Facebook: “Desean Jackson vs Seattle, Anquan Boldin vs KC or Terrance Williams vs Houston.”

I’m going to start out by just simply saying no to Desean vs. Seattle. Seeing what the Giants were able to to Cousins makes me terrified for him against the Seahawks…Boldin was making plays in clutch situations against the Eagles, but it was still disappointing that he couldn’t light it up against an atrocious pass defense…I like Terrance Williams the most in this group. He’s being single-covered a lot, and why not when Dez Bryant is on the opposite end. Assuming Bryant draws Jonathan Joseph in coverage, Williams will get big point targets again.

Ryan Suarez on Facebook: “Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson or Knile Davis in the Flex”

I’ve made this known before, but I don’t like Doug Martin. At all. He did score last week but still seemed to struggle. He has an opportunity to produce against a Saints defense that he ran 144 yards on last season, but I like his teammate from this group better…Mike Glennon is a big boost for Vincent Jackson over Josh McCown and the Saints secondary is one to be had. Jackson will also be getting a majority of the targets with Mike Evans dealing with a groin injury…Lastly, Knile Davis didn’t seem to slow down in production the other night against the Patriots, even with Jamaal Charles starting as well. He still deserves flex consideration, but I don’t like his matchup against the 49ers who shut down the combo of LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles last week on the ground. Go with V-Jax in the flex.

Zach Munoz on Facebook: “Jeremy Maclin or Brian Quick?”

Go with Brian Quick. Brian Quick has proven to be the best receiving option in St. Louis, and #1 receivers get to eat when it comes to playing against the Philadelphia pass defense.

Scott Marlega on Facebook: “Pick two 1 WR/1 Flex (non PPR) Brandin Cooks, Michael Crabtree, Reggie Wayne, Fred Jackson.”

I’ll make the first part easy. Start Brandin Cooks at WR. The Saints are a very different team at home and Drew Brees LOVES to play against the Bucanneers. In his last 4 starts against Tampa Bay, Brees has thrown for totals of 381, 322, 307, and 377 yards. He’s thrown four touchdowns in three of those four games. Cooks is going to get some love this weekend.

Now for your Flex spot: Michael Crabtree is a decent start at home. Going into the Monday Nighter, I expected Tom Brady to be able to take advantage against Kansas City’s beat up secondary but that wasn’t the case at Arrowhead Stadium. Crabtree may have a better chance as Colin Kaepernick can elude the Chiefs’ pass rush better than Brady could…The Ravens are great against the run but the Colts have the Fantasy quarterback in the league right now, and he doesn’t care. I’m expecting Andrew Luck to air it out against Baltimore at home, and Reggie Wayne is back to being the hot hand receiving…Fred Jackson is 3rd in the league among running backs receiving with 19 catches for 170 yards. Jackson faces a Lions defense that can shut down the run, but don’t be surprised to see Orton check down to Jackson a lot. The most dependable in this group though is Reggie Wayne.

As always, keep the questions coming through the weekend on Facebook and Twitter and I’ll do my best to respond. 

NFL Week 4 Fantasy Mailbag

If you had the opportunity to redraft the first round of your Fantasy Football league, what would it look like? Typically you saw the top 5 pre-ranked running backs go in an order similar to this:

1. LeSean McCoy

2. Jamaal Charles

3. Matt Forte

4. Adrian Peterson

5. Eddie Lacy

How many of these backs have played up to their expectations? McCoy and Forte haven’t been eye-popping but still solid thus far in total productio. The other three, however, have been a serious pain for their owners through three weeks. Charles has seen his numbers go to backup Kniles Davis due to an ankle injury. Lacy has dealt with a bad mix of tough defensive matchups, a Week 1 concussion, and very suspect play-calling in Green Bay. And Peterson…well, you know. So who would you draft in the Top 5, knowing what we do now? I know many of us are envious to miss out on the following:

Marshawn Lynch (234 rush yards, 3 TD / 81 receiving yards 2 TD)

– DeMarco Murray (385 rush yards, 3 TD / 62 rec yards)

– Le’Veon Bell (315 rush yards, 1 TD / 146 rec yards)

– Giovanni Bernard (185 rush yards, 3 TD/ 148 rec yards)

Going into Week 4, a lot of you are playing “lineup shuffle” with six teams on the bye with some serious point producers being missed from the Bengals, Broncos, and Seahawks. Plenty of time for Lynch to reattach his dreads.

Lynch Gif

So anywho…what’s good?

John Filantres on Facebook: “Witten or Gates?”

You wondered if Jason Witten was going to get back to being Tony Romo’s most consistent target again, especially with Scott Linehan making the Cowboys passing calls, but that certainly hasn’t been the case. Most of that has been the lack of opportunities in the red zone and a commitment to getting Murray the ball. Witten could have his chances this weekend against a Saints defense who has struggled to get to the quarterback and has to pay more attention to Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams downfield…Antonio Gates laid an egg last week against the Bills, thanks in part to a hamstring injury. Gates has a great opportunity to bounce back big this week against a Jacksonville defense that can’t cover tight ends well at all. Go with Gates this weekend.

Kirk Clark on Facebook: “Fred Jackson or Trent Richardson…DeSean Jackson or Anquan Boldin? PPR”

RB: Fred Jackson will be your best bet this week, especially against the Texans. Actually could be a solid week for both he and Spiller but in 3 weeks, Jackson is getting a majority of the passing looks and carries around the goal-line. Catching 8 passes last week had to work out well for you if you started Jackson in PPR leagues…Trent Richardson is popping a big run here and there, but I don’t trust him yet and his matchup against the Titans is tougher than Jackson’s.

WR: You knew the Washington wide receivers were going to get a bump in their numbers with Kirk Cousins at the helm, but who envisioned the 80 yard bomb to DeSean Jackson against his old teammates?  Jackson was listed as questionable with the short week, but it looks like he will be active this evening. Keep a close eye on his status to see if there is a change during warm ups…Anquan Boldin will be facing an Eagles pass defense that has given up the second most points to receivers so far this season, but that may benefit Michael Crabtree more. Crabtree is seeing most of the targets from Kaepernick and it wouldn’t shock me if the 49ers go back to their bread and butter of running the ball to keep the possessions limited from Chip Kelly’s offense. Play Jackson but keep an eye on his status before kickoff.

Ryan Fatten on Facebook: “Eddie Lacy vs Shane Vereen”

I’ll admit, I was pretty close to the ledge on Eddie Lacy. His fumble for a touchdown early against the Lions seemed to put him in the doghouse with Packers coach Mike McCarthy, and carries in key possessions were going to backup James Starks. I don’t expect that to be the case this week against the Bears, whom Lacy accumulated 213 rush yards against last season. The Bears are also allowing 5 yards per carry to running backs so far this season and will be a bit more on their heals having to defend Aaron Rodgers…As I mentioned a week ago, Shane Vereen doesn’t get the touches you would hope for when the Patriots are leading. Against a Chiefs defense without Eric Berry, that may be the case again. Give Lacy one more chance before quitting on him. If he can’t get it done against the Bears, then well, yeah…

Emmet Fairfield on Facebook: “.2 PPR W/R/T: Freddy Jackson, Deandre Hopkins, or Terrance Williams?”

While Fred Jackson is looking more like a solid back for PPR leagues, DeAndre Hopkins is looking even more like the first round pick he was drafted as. Hopkins has either scored or topped 100 yards in each game this season. He and Andre Johnson are also seeing an increase in looks with Arian Foster sitting out and Ryan Fitzpatrick increasing his pass attempts by 50%. The Bills are great against the run but struggling mightily against the pass, so the 2nd leading receiver in catches of 40+ yards may be continuing his run…Terrance Williams has a good matchup this week against the Saints but he isn’t seeing the targets that owners would like. I personally like Hopkins the most out of this group, but Jackson isn’t a bad start either.

Kyle Vanderploeg on Facebook: “Buffalo Defense or Houston?”

Congratulations Kyle, you are the first to ask me to decide between defenses. Funny how these two are playing against each other. Despite their shakiness against the pass, they do stop the run and can get to the quarterback. Fitzpatrick is going to throw a lot with Foster down, and that can be a recipe for some serious interception points. Add CJ Spiller into the mix for Special Teams returner points, and that could be the difference. Go with Buffalo.

Per usual, you are welcome to continue asking questions on Twitter and Facebook through the weekend.

NFL Week 3 Fantasy Mailbag

I came across something yesterday that described the past few weeks better than I ever could.

“Sports is not Sports sometimes.” (WSCR Sports Radio Program Director Mitch Rosen)

Hard to argue. The escape that many of us rely on in sports has become almost as depressing as the Ten o’clock news. Every breaking story has more potential to break your heart as well. Not so good to be the king right now, is it?

I still love football though. I was on my feet, yelling at the top of my lungs in someone else’s apartment while CJ Spiller ran up the sideline against the Dolphins.

I felt my heart drop to my stomach when Jay Cutler was speared in the chest by a San Francisco defender, then punched the air for every touchdown he threw right after. I look forward to doing it all over again this coming weekend, because it is still sports…It’s still an escape.

On the field, Week 2 had plenty of highlights but also a fair share of carnage. Jamaal Charles, Robert Griffin III, DeSean Jackson, AJ Green, Ryan Matthews, and Mark Ingram all suffered significant injuries. Unfortunately, some (RG3) much worse than others.

When you get 1/8 into the NFL season, you start to get a good feel for your team and who you shouldn’t be leaving on your bench *cough*Darren Sproles*. You also get a better feeling for the defenses that your players are facing week to week. Let’s open this week’s mailbag and see what you’re dealing with.

John Filantres on Facebook: “(Eddie) Lacy or (Marshawn) Lynch this week?”

I would hope that since you have both, you could start both on your roster…but I’ll humor you. As an Eddie Lacy Fantasy owner, it’s been a rough 2 weeks to start the season for me. Lacy left the season opener with a concussion, and then was left out of the game plan after the Packers found themselves trailing 21-3 to the Jets. Lacy also had a goal line touchdown robbed from him as Aaron Rodgers faked the handoff and hit Randall Cobb in the end zone instead on play-action. You obviously drafted Lacy high, and I believe you are going to get your due as he faces 3 division opponents in a row starting with Detroit. While the Lions have improved against the run from a year ago, they are still giving up rushing touchdowns…Marshawn Lynch is obviously having a much better start to the season than Lacy, evident from their Week 1 matchup. However, Lynch is dealing with back issues which forced him to exit the game early during a loss to San Diego. At home in a Super Bowl rematch against the Broncos defense warrants a start for Lynch though, if he’s healthy.

Jon Golabek on Facebook: “Andrew Hawkins, (Eric) Decker, DeSean Jackson or James Jones.”

Your two best options, D-Jax and Decker, are dealing with injuries and I would keep an eye on their statuses throughout the week…especially Jackson against the Eagles. He’s itching to get on the field against the Eagles who allowed 306 yards per game passing a year ago, and still haven’t found a way to stop it…Decker is a starting option against a Bears defense that can either be the one who opened the season losing to Buffalo, or picking off Colin Kaepernick like crazy on the road in San Francisco…Hawkins is getting his targets from Brian Hoyer, but he faces a Baltimore defense that has given up the least passing TDs so far this season….James Jones is probably your best option if neither Jackson or Decker can go. He is going to draw coverage from Darrelle Revis though in New England, and that will not be easy for his rookie quarterback on the road. I would prioritize your options 1) Jackson 2) Decker 3) Jones and 4) Hawkins.

Christi Reiter on Facebook: “Tell me about Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey…ESPN keeps encouraging me to play Martin over Rainey but I have no faith…he’s pulled a whopping 0 points so far this season!”

All-Caps will be necessary here…DON’T TRUST DOUG MARTIN. I spent the early part of Sunday watching Red Zone Channel with my friend Jamie, keeping an eye on our players every time they got chances to score. Not too far into the Noon (CDT) games, Jamie received an update on his phone that Martin was ruled out for the game later on. The Buccaneers had Martin listed as playing they day before, and then screwed fantasy owners who had him slotted to start. Even if Martin plays (reports are saying that’s unlikely now), he’s a risky one at that. Only playing 6 games last season, Martin scored just one touchdown total and averaged 88 yards from scrimmage per. He also wasn’t a factor in the passing game…If Bobby Rainey gets the nod, you may be in luck. I have a hard time seeing him denied his touches after rushing for 144 yards last week. Rainey also torched Atlanta for 163 yards last year…I like Rainey > Martin.

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “How do you feel about Welker’s return vs Golden Tate or James Jones?”

It feels set up a little too perfectly, doesn’t it? Welker is reinstated 2 weeks early from his suspension just in time for a Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks. Welker specializes in the underneath route in Peyton Manning’s offense and that is where the Seahawks have been vulnerable as of late. It’s also the Seahawks at home, where they hardly lose and offenses quake in their boots. I think they’ll take the running game away from the Broncos and force Manning to pass, setting the targets up for Welker’s return…Outside of that, Golden Tate could benefit from what could be high scoring affair with the Packers. If Matthew Stafford isn’t throwing to Calvin Johnson, he’s throwing to Tate and may have to often…Tate may be the safer bet, but I feel better about Welker in what could be one of the better games of the weekend.

Alberto Arreola on Facebook: “Cutler or Big Ben?”

Based on matchup alone, Cutty Does It. Jay Cutler is currently tied with Peyton Manning and leading the league in touchdown passes and the New York Jets are tied for allowing the most scores through the air. Look for the Bears to run a very similar game plan to their Sunday Nighter against San Francisco on the road again. They will test the Jets’ stout run defense and take advantage of the inexperienced secondary, one that allowed the Packers to reel off 28 of the last 31 points of the game coming from behind. The Bears are also 6-1 now in primetime games a year and two weeks into Marc Trestman’s head coaching tenure….Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a brutalizing loss to the Ravens and doesn’t catch a break having to go into Carolina to face a rolling Panthers defense. While their cornerbacks can be had, the Panthers’ front seven are as good as any in football. Big reason for Roethlisberger’s woes last week were the Ravens defensive line and outside linebackers getting to him. Even without Greg Hardy, the Panthers can do the same. Roethlisberger’s saving grace is a pair of receivers, Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton, who are terrific after the catch…if he can get the ball to them. Go Cutler this weekend.

Sam Kalmar on Facebook: “If AJ Green doesn’t play: Keenan Allen, Edelman or Torrey Smith? Also, Vereen, Sproles or Rashad Jennings?”

It’s amazing how fluid a player’s injury status can be. Earlier in the week, the word was AJ Green wouldn’t be back on the field until after the Bengals’ bye in Week 4. Now he’s trying to go this Sunday, but that’s neither here nor there…In the case Green does not suit up this week, I like Julian Edleman and I like him a lot. Edelman is clear and away Tom Brady’s #1 target and he’s catching almost everything thrown his way (13 catches on 15 targets). He has averaged 8 catches or more in his last 10 games. If return yards matter in your league, Edelman’s chances on special teams don’t hurt you either.

Solid options for running backs, and here is a rule of thumb when it comes to Shane Vereen: When the Patriots are playing from behind, Bill Belichick gets Vereen the ball every way possible. When the Patriots are leading, it’s all about Stevan Ridley. That will be the case playing the Raiders at home…After two weeks in Chip Kelly’s system, I don’t think you can leave Darren Sproles on your bench anymore. 26 touches, 263 yards, and 2 touchdowns in that time says enough. Washington is very good against running backs in between the tackles, but that’s not Sproles’ game nor Philadelphia’s. Sproles works wonders in space and Kelly knows how to get the ball to him, especially through the air. Washington also has problems giving up pass yards to running backs, four of which gaining 69 yards or more last season against them….Rashad Jennings is also a good option simply because he is the Giants’ ONLY reliable weapon in a hot mess offense. The Texans are relatively soft up front without Jadeveon Clowney playing, and that will likely be the only thing preventing Eli Manning Face this weekend. Go with Sproles, though, until he slows down.

Sean Liam on Facebook: Ellington vs SF, Pierce @ Cle, CJ2k vs Chi, Fred Jackson vs SD,Terrance West vs Baltimore. Pick 2″

Okay. First glance has me picking Andre Ellington first, but let’s delve into him further. Despite the bad foot, Ellington is going to get the touches until his foot comes off with no Dwyer and Carson Palmer dealing with nerve damage. Ellington is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 25-30 touches per game going into a tough matchup against the 49ers, but Demarco Murray did prove they can be had with 143 yards on the ground. Ellington also caught 8 passes and scored against them last season.

Now the question becomes, “who will get starter-like opportunities among the rest?” The Ravens have allowed 100+ combo yards to running backs in each of the first two weeks of the season, and Terrance West is going to get a chance to do the same with Ben Tate unlikely to play. I don’t know how much of an incentive this is or if it matters, but this is also a homecoming game for the rookie running back who played at Northwestern High School in Baltimore….Chris Johnson had a pretty dismal game against the Packers a week ago, and he will likely not be the number one option in the red zone as he has negative rush yards with those opportunities so far. Chris Ivory is still the Jets starter and the more reliable of the two early on, but that point could be moot if they have to play catchup against the Bears passing attack…And then there’s Bernard Pierce. Pierce drew 22 carries to Justin Forsett’s 8 in a drubbing of the Steelers a week ago and the Browns can be had on the ground, giving up 150 yards per game. In Gary Kubiak’s scheme, I like Pierce to take advantage of that stat more than your other options especially if Joe Haden is taking away passing options from Joe Flacco. Play Ellington and Pierce this weekend.

Kirk Clark on Facebook: “PPR Keenan Allen, Golden Tate, Brandon Quick. Then whoever is left over from those and throw in Zac Stacy for flex option.”

As mentioned before, I like Golden Tate against the Packers pass defense if they overcompensate covering Calvin Johnson…Keenan Allen hasn’t had a chance to put up big numbers having lined against two of the best cornerbacks in the game, Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. The Bills secondary is letting you throw on them though, allowing 295 yards per game, and that could be Allen’s ticket…And Brian Quick proved again to be the top target for the Rams passing game, catching 7 balls on 9 targets for 74 yards. The Cowboys secondary has proven to be bit more formidable than in the past, ranking 10th against the pass. This is where I see Zac Stacy being relied on if the Rams can keep the game close. The Rams have been the best team against the pass in terms of yardage (174 per) but that’s been against Matt Cassel and Josh McCown…I feel best about Keenan Allen and Golden Tate as your options, but keep Stacy in the mix as he may be needed to trade yardage against DeMarco Murray.

Good luck everyone in Week 3. If you have more questions, feel free to Tweet them to me.

NFL Week 2 Fantasy Mailbag

Pretty slow week in the NFL, right? Not like anything crazy happened on or off the field…

If you had Julius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, or Matt Ryan in Week 1, GOOD FOR YOU. If you played Allen Hurns from Jacksonville, I want proof. It was fun to get back into the swing of things, wasn’t it? Surfing back and forth between games, constantly checking scoring updates, engulfing yourself in football again…Personally, it felt like a return to normalcy.

Last week I introduced my new Fantasy Mailbag and we had some great submissions! This week is no different and there are plenty more fantasy dilemmas and questions to explore.

Donald Moenning on Facebook: “Victor Cruz. Do you continue to play him this season over solid WR 2’s / Flex guys like Keenan Allen & T.Y. Hilton? Or is he bound to repeat his atrocious 2013 due to the Giants struggling offense?”

Eli Manning Face was in midseason form on Monday Night Football. Former Packers quarterbacks coach Ben McAdoo was brought in to prevent that and right the ship as the new Giants offensive coordinator, but that clearly wasn’t evident Monday night…especially for Victor Cruz. The Giants have tried selling the public on how this new offense will benefit Cruz and give him Jordy Nelson-like numbers. I don’t see it…yet. You’re probably safer waiting-and-seeing with Cruz on your bench while he will be facing stiff competition in upcoming matchups: Arizona and Patrick Peterson in Week 2, Houston and Johnathan Joseph in Week 3.

Chad Cash on Facebook: “Do yo start Luck, The Red Rocket (Andy Dalton) or Matt Ryan?”

You have a solid stable to choose from at the QB position. Matt Ryan will play the toughest of the three opposing defenses in Cincinnati that was stout against the pass at home last year. There is uncertainty to whether his best protector, Jake Matthews, will play. Andy Dalton could have a fine day facing a shaky Atlanta secondary that allowed multiple touchdowns through the air 12 times last year, but I think your best bet will be on Andrew Luck. Luck was forced to keep pace with Peyton Manning last week, and he will likely have to do the same against Philadelphia in Week 2. After seeing what Chad Henne was able to accomplish, could be a HUGE game for Luck.

Kirk Clark on Facebook: “Flex Stacy vs TB or Forsett vs Pitt. (ppr) also Keenan Allen vs Seattle, Brian Quick vs TB or Golden Tate @ carolina (ppr)”

First the RB question: While the Rams don’t seem to be able to do anything but run, that makes it a lot easier for defenses to gameplan against it. Zac Stacy will also be facing a good run D in Tampa. With just as many carries (11), Justin Forsett was able to gain nearly twice as many yards and will assume Ray Rice’s role in the offense. Steelers also gave up 183 rush yards to Cleveland last week. Count on the Ravens play-callers to exploit that further and go with Forsett.

And for WRs: I don’t love any of the matchups here, especially with Keenan Allen facing Seattle and not having a great showing last week when targeted 9 times. Brian Quick seemed to be the only offensive player to show up for St. Louis in Week 1, but can you trust him with that quarter back situation? Detroit plays strong Carolina defense this week, but Golden Tate may benefit the most if they give Calvin Johnson all the coverage he deserves. Start Tate…and hope for the best.

Rick Erickson on Facebook: “1. Forsett, Doug Martin, Rashad Jennings for 1 RB slot…2. Allen Hurns, Steve Smith, Mike Evans, Marquise Lee, Rod Streater for 1 WR slot or maybe the flex”

RB: I like Rashad Jennings in this group after seeing what he put up 96 yards against a good Detroit defense the other night. I said I liked Forsett, but at least Jennings is the starter. In regards to Doug Martin, you don’t know if he’s healthy and St. Louis is strong against the run.

WR: If you want to have fun, go with flavor of the week Hurns. Although he really only made 2 big plays, the rest of WRs are banged up for Jacksonville against a weak Washington D. Mike Evans could also be a good play against a beatable St. Louis pass defense as your flex. I don’t see Rod Streater repeating his performance against a tougher Houston D. Steve Smith (Sr) looks like your guy though. Big game last week and facing a pedestrian Steelers secondary tonight. Also, this…

Steve Smith Sr toss

Brandon Watson on Facebook: “Trade: Victor Cruz and Cordarrelle Patterson for Megatron.”

Essentially this is a Cordarrelle for Calvin trade, with Cruz as extra ribbon. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think you’ll miss Cruz too much. Patterson is a very interesting case as he saw 77% of the snaps last week (career high), and it’s not implausible to see that percentage rise with Norv Turner calling plays for Minnesota. He is also bribing his quarterback. Calvin Johnson is Calvin Johnson though. And he will eat secondaries alive this season. If you have a viable option to fill the spot you are vacating for Cruz, make the trade.

Emmet Fairfield on Facebook: “RB2 in a .2ppr league. Rashad Jennings, CJ2k, or Freddy Jackson?”

We wondered a week ago if there were enough carries to go around in the Jets backfield. The answer is yes, yes there are. Chris Johnson is catching passes too and I like his odds against the Packers defense more than Jennings against the Cardinals. Fred Jackson, despite late heroics against the Bears, may lose carries to Anthony Dixon while the Bills balance the load with CJ Spiller and possibly Bryce Brown as well. Jackson did gain 200 total yards and 2 touchdowns against the Dolphins, but CJ2K may be your guy.

While I usually welcome Fantasy questions through the weekend, it may be tough to get a hold of me while I’m at Riot Fest. Still, don’t hesitate to ask and feel free to get your Week 3 questions in on Facebook and Twitter.

NFL Week 1 Fantasy Mailbag

Finally…

The NFL returns and 2014 is set to kickoff right with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers. Fans of both teams, and the NFL in general, still have those final moments from their matchup in 2012 fresh in their minds. There’s no way you forgot about this one…

I can only imagine how much play Russell Wilson’s Hail Mary will get on all of the highlight programs, pre-game shows and during the game itself tonight. But while we remember the wild outcome of that game, the absolute beat down the Seahawks put on the Broncos in the Super Bowl, and whoever won your Fantasy league last year (begrudgingly), today marks a clean slate for everyone. 

With a new season come new traditions. Each week I will take any Fantasy Football questions you may have and answer them the best I can before Thursday Night Football. Whether it’s on Facebook, Twitter, or emailing me at piff.michael@gmail.com, I’ll help with any roster questions you may have to set your lineup for game time. If you don’t get your question in before the weekly post, have no fear…you can still ask me on social media if you’d like. With Wes Welker getting some extended time off, I’m sure you’re wondering who to pick up in his place…

Now we’re ready to start!

 

Jumbo Joe on Facebook “Witten or Gates and Stacy or McFadden?”

Let’s start with the TEs. Jason Witten and the Cowboys will open the season at home against a depleted 49ers defense. Regardless of whether or not defensive lineman Ray McDonald is suspended this week for his domestic violence charge, the 49ers are without inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (knee injury), defensive lineman Glen Dorsey (bicep injury), and defensive end Aldon Smith (9 game suspension). Both 49ers cornerbacks, Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver, are making their first opening day start and new safety Antoine Bethea is returning from a preseason concussion. This should be a great opportunity for Tony Romo and his targets. That includes Witten…On the other hand, Antonio Gates is on the road against a Cardinals defense that gave up the most points to tight ends last season. I think you have a good problem on your hands in Week 1, but also keep in mind Phillip Rivers has Ladarius Green as a TE option. Go with Witten knowing that Romo loves to throw his way and that his pass calls will be increased in the Scott Linehan system.

In regards to the RBs, with Sam Bradford going down (again), Zac Stacy becomes the most important player on the Rams offense. The Rams have a solid stable of running backs with Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason in the mix, but Stacy is the Rams’ feature back…Darren McFadden is an interesting case. We know McFadden has the ability to be a top end RB, but his injury history has proven him to be unreliable over the course of a season. The Raiders have him listed 2nd on the depth chart behind newly acquired Maurice Jones-Drew. While I think both RBs will get their fair share of touches, especially with a rookie quarterback at the helm, they are going against a Jets defense that was ranked 3rd against the run a year ago. Start Stacy against a Vikings D that gave up the 9th most fantasy points to running backs. 

 

Alberto Arreola on Facebook “Ellington or Murray? And Gronk or Olsen?”

In his 2nd year, Andre Ellington is being talked up as a possible breakout star by multiple Fantasy experts. In 15 games and 1 start last year, 1,023 total yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns (3 rush, 1 rec). He is a pass catching running back that will be depended on as the full-time guy for the Cardinals. But can he handle the increase in workload?…DeMarco Murray starts his contract year against the aforementioned depleted 49ers defense. Murray is a top 10 RB when healthy and should see a boost in his receiving stats with Linehan making pass calls. Linehan loves throwing to his running backs. Start Murray at RB but have Ellington available for your flex spot if your league has one. 

Rob Gronkowski says he’s ready to go for week 1for the Patriots, and if Gronk wants to football…Gronk will football (yes, that was intended in caveman voice). Some wonder how limited Gronkowski’s snaps will be, but if Tom Brady gets to the red zone, you know who his favorite target is…Greg Olsen is looking like one of the few reliable guys in Cam Newton’s passing attack and will be a test for Lovie Smith’s new Buccaneers defense. However, having seen the damage Gronk can do in Fantasy Leagues when healthy, start him. 

Andrew Hirt on Facebook “Andy Dalton or Ben Roethlisberger”

These are a pair of AFC North quarterbacks who proved to be fairly comparable last year in terms of yardage and TD/INT ratio. Andy Dalton faces a tougher pass defense on the road in Baltimore than Ben Roethlisberger does at home against Cleveland. Dalton has AJ Green. Roethlisberger has Antonio Brown. My heart says Dalton but my head says Roethlisberger at home. 

 

Emmet Fairfield on Facebook “For a W/R/T spot: P. Harvin, Chris Johnson, or Fred Jackson…League is .2 PPR, 1 pt per 20 punt return yds, and otherwise standard.”

I’m glad you mentioned you are in a PPR league. I’d like to ask everyone else to distinguish the same when submitting questions this season…I like the combo you have for your flex spot but I think one of them stands out the most in Week 1. I see Chris Johnson really getting a chance to shine with the Jets but to start he’ll be a part of a running back-by-committee system with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. RBs also didn’t catch many passes in Marty Mornhinweg’s system last year with Geno Smith at quarterback…I think Fred Jackson will be a solid option down the stretch, but Week 1 is going to feature a lot more of a healthy CJ Spiller against the Bears. He may also lose carries to Bryce Brown in that crowded backfield…I think tonight will be a big one for Percy Harvin. You’ll get your return yard points from him, and he’ll be Russell Wilson’s primary target against a defense that ranked 4th giving up fantasy points to wide receivers last year. Start Harvin tonight, but don’t sleep on Johnson in upcoming weeks. 

 

Again if you still have Fantasy Football questions, feel free to Tweet @Mike_PiFF03.