No case of the Mondays here…
I can’t be alone in greatly enjoying the cuteness overload on social media today. I have an epic thread of puppy photos being posted by friends on my own Facebook page. But I digress…
Let’s take a look at what sports clubs and outlets are posting from all over.
By now, you know THE PLAY very well.
And the reactions that followed.
Patriots fans, Seahawks fans, and the rest of the world helped make Super Bowl 49 the highest rated television program in U.S. History. 114.5 million viewers watched the whole game and 118.5 million were tuned in for Katy Perry and her giant robot lion.
That thing was impressive and terrifying all at once.
In a blink of an eye though, football was over. The 2014-15 season was wrapped up with a championship game that represented it perfectly…INSANE. And one of the best Super Bowls in league history was made so by some of this past Fantasy season’s best.
If you’re like me, you already can’t wait to draft your next Fantasy team. So why not start looking ahead and beginning your draft board? Let’s take a look at the key contributors from last weekend’s game and others with Fantasy value.
Beginning with…
In terms of Fantasy Football, Tom Brady had a bounce back year. While his yardage and record were consistent with last season, Brady threw more touchdowns (33) and less interceptions (9). He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of his 16 starts in 2014, and at least one in every game other than Week 17 when he left early to rest for Jimmy Garoppolo. (But you shouldn’t be worried about Week 17, if you know what’s good for you.) After a difficult first 4 weeks, Brady tore it up by leading Fantasy owners to the playoffs with 24 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions over 8 weeks.
At the age of 37, Brady ranked 5th in touchdown passes, 5th in passer rating, and 10th in yardage. He slipped pretty far in drafts last season, but he should be available for you to grab in rounds 4-6 this year. Grab your key position players first and Brady will compliment them greatly.
If Tom Brady didn’t win the Super Bowl XLIX MVP, Julian Edelman could have. Was there a gutsier player in the game? Edelman made catch after catch, and was blown up doing so…
Edelman’s performance was a thing of football folklore, much like his career so far. The former Kent State quarterback has filled in nicely as Tom Brady’s favorite wide receiver target after the departure of Wes Welker. In the past two seasons, Edelman has caught 197 passes in 30 games played. PPR league players have to like the 6.5 catches a game, 2,028 yards receiving in that span, and Edelman’s return ability.
There are two concerns with Edelman. #1 is targets in the red zone. In between the 20’s, Edelman is a great possession option for Brady, and his catch totals are evident of that. In the end zone though, Brady likes to spread the wealth (or throw to Gronk). The 2nd concern is the wear and tear Edelman has compiled early in his career. The hit you see above wasn’t his first rodeo (over the middle with a hard hitting safety)…Edelman makes a solid WR2 option, target him in your 5th-7th rounds. He’d be a steal past that. Moves like this on top end defensive backs like the Seahawks have make you optimistic.
The AP “Comeback Player of The Year” was more than deserving of the honor. Like Tom Brady, Gronk’s production skyrocketed after Week 4. Correlation?…While Gronkowski had caught touchdowns in 3 of the first 4 games of the season, his usage increased from 6.5 targets per game to 9.5 (Weeks 5-16) and he finished with a Top 5 total of 12 touchdowns.
Gronkowski was a steal for me in two leagues, falling to the 4th round in both. No way he’ll be available there in your next draft. With the uncertainty of what’s next for Julius Thomas and the dip in Jimmy Graham’s production, Gronk becomes the #1 tight end on your draft board. I wouldn’t expect him to escape the 2nd round in anybody’s respectable draft.
Bill Belichick’s running backs should always come with a warning label: MAY CAUSE INCREASE IN BLOOD PRESSURE. I couldn’t help but appreciate Shane Vereen’s game during the Super Bowl though. He only had 4 rushes for 13 yards but he led the team in receptions with 11 for 64 yards on 12 targets. The rule with Patriots running backs is when they are trailing, Shane Vereen is their guy. He led all the RBs with 838 yards from scrimmage while Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden all combined for 1,175 yards.
You’ll likely see Vereen overrated on many draft boards and going way too early in mock drafts. Why? He only scored 5 touchdowns total last season, and that’s not production you want out of a depended RB. Draft Vereen late to have as a fill-in flex option. When the Patriots are leading, Tom Brady is throwing less and handing the ball off to anyone not named Vereen…Keep in mind that Vereen is a free agent this off-season. This advice may change depending if he signs somewhere other than New England.
Despite his final throw of the Super Bowl, Russell Wilson is a winner. Just 3 seasons in the NFL with a 36-12 record, one Super Bowl ring, and 2 trips are more than enough evidence of that. Fantasy wise the season total numbers weren’t eye-popping, but there were individual games that were.
Week 5 @ Washington – 201 pass yards, 2 TDs / 122 rush yards, 1 TD
Week 7 @ St. Louis – 313 pass yards, 2 TDs / 106 rush yards, 1 TD
Week 16 @ Arizona – 339 pass yards, 2 TD / 88 rush yards, 1 TD
Those were games you should have won if you had him. Something Wilson was missing, however, was a true #1 receiver to throw to…preferably a big body receiver who could win jump balls in the end zone. If the Seahawks are able to add one this offseason, “DangerRuss” would be more than deserving of the nickname.
Russell Wilson could have been found on the waiver wire for you last season, and rightfully so. The point production wasn’t altogether consistent enough for a dependable Fantasy starter but the floor with Wilson is that of a very good backup. If he gets a big receiver, as noted earlier, he becomes a mid round pick for you. Lowest he should go is in the 10th round. No way should Wilson go undrafted.
Marshawn Lynch was the best Fantasy football player featured in Super Bowl 49. Say what you want about his relationship with the media (this should help change your mind), the man can ball. Lynch led the league in total touchdowns (rush/receiving) with 17, led in rush TDs (13), ranked 4th in rush yards (1,306), and was Top 5 in touches, yards from scrimmage, and rushing yards per game. He turns 29 in April this year and has considerable pay bump awaiting him which suggests he’s capable of producing like that again.
The verdict is still out on whether or not Lynch wants to play next season but if he does, you take him in the first round. DeMarco Murray and Le’Veon Bell rank ahead of him, but Lynch is first round material without a doubt.
Had the Seahawks won the game, we’d be using the “folklore” verbiage with Chris Matthews a lot more than we have with Edelman. Matthews was a former junior college and Kentucky player, played in the CFL, worked at Foot Locker at one point, recovered the onside kick that beat the Packers…Then he caught 4 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
You don’t. Matthews is a cool story. A 6’5 receiver who can make plays, obviously, but hasn’t really done anything to warrant you rolling the dice on him in your Fantasy draft. He doesn’t have much of a Pro Football Reference page to reference to. The Seahawks offense will be one to watch after this past weekend though, Matthews included.
Got thoughts or questions? Let me know on Twitter @Mike_PiFF03.
I love Super Bowl week.
Media Day, All-Time great commercial countdowns, the constant NFL Films replaying of Super Bowls past, food…
It’s the best.
Once #DeflateGate finally blows over (if it ever does), we’ll see the game itself broken down in every way possible and multiple prop bet odds fluctuating up until Idina Menzel starts belting out our National Anthem. We’ll get trash talking from coast-to-coast and perhaps a gentleman’s bet between Ed Murray and Martin Walsh, the mayors of Seattle and Boston.
We DO however have an epic bet going between Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) and Captain America (Chris Evans)…
I would like to heat up the trash talk between the two regions by widening the scope and digging deeper into more than football. By comparing Seattle and New England (Boston) in categories such as music, TV, movies, other sports, beer, etc, we’ll be able to formulate a prediction for the Sunday’s outcome that’s as logical as an elephant choosing the winner…or a tiger.
That was awesome.
Anywho…
As part of Dave Grohl’s “Sonic Highways” docu-series following the cool concept of the Foo Fighters’ cross country recording journey for their latest album, Grohl and HBO focused on the Seattle music scene. While the central theme was how bands like Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden and Alice in Chains almost literally blew up your FM frequencies, helping to create the alternative genre, grunge wasn’t the only calling card for Seattle.
During the post-war era (1945-1975), Seattle produced three of the industry’s all-time great black musicians. Ray Charles recorded his first single and made his television and radio debuts in Seattle. Quincy Jones played as an instrumentalist in Bumps Blackwell’s band. And before he went to England to start recording to eventually gain worldwide fame, Jimi Hendrix was rocking the clubs in Seattle on a nightly basis…In Hip-Hop, most of you know that Macklemore is from Seattle, but did you know Sir Mix A Lot was too? Seattle has also been the hub for current indie music acts, including Sunny Day Real Estate, The Postal Service, Death Cab for Cutie, The Head and the Heart, Fleet Foxes and (one of my favorites) Band of Horses.
I wanted to preface this in the beginning, but we find in a lot of these categories to be “Old School vs. New School” with New England representing a lot of the former. Of course we have to start with the “Bad Boys from Boston”, Aerosmith. Also fondly referred to as “America’s Greatest Rock and Roll Band”, they certainly score big points in this game. Add (the band) Boston, The Cars, and J. Geils Band to the list of bands yours dad (and I) really likes.
But wait, there’s more! While New Edition and Bell Biv Devoe rocked your oversized boom box, Donna Summer had the last dance. Raise your hand if you had a New Kids On The Block lunch box…Marky Mark might have. Add Powerman 5000, American Hi-Fi, The Mighty Mighty Bosstones, Guster, and The Dear Hunter and you get a pretty good feel for the Boston music scene.
Also Dropkick Murphys, Extreme and Pixies…Oh my!
I found myself torn between the two, so I asked a couple of music experts and enthusiasts for their thoughts:
“Both great legacies. I couldn’t possibly pick one over the other, as four of my favorite bands of all time come from each city: Mission of Burma and Morphine (Boston/Cambridge) and Fastbacks and Mudhoney (Seattle). Also Tad makes up for the rise of Candlebox in Seattle, and the Cars make me want to forgive Boston for the existence of Extreme.” – Greg Kot, Chicago Tribune Music Critic
“Hard to not pick Boston just because I have so many musician friends there, but Seattle is formidable. I will call it a draw.” – Len Kasper, Chicago Cubs Television Broadcaster and musician.
See! Not that easy.
However, I’m a firm believer in quality over quantity and Seattle’s scene from the 90’s and recently is too good to deny. Plus, they don’t have a band like Extreme to worry about canceling out.
When we see Seattle depicted on television, what impressions do we get? Progressive, new age, rainy?
Twin Peaks, Weeds, Grey’s Anatomy, The Killing (aka The show that makes me genuinely afraid of Seattle.) And of course…
Frasier.
There’s a handful of the typical (but still good) “Boston” themed shows. Boston Legal, Boston Public, Boston Commons (yeah, I said it.)…Wahlburg is basically a synonym for “Boston” so Wahlburgers is included. Fringe, Leverage, and Rizzoli & Isles too. Ally McBeal is your “Grey’s” equivalent. And then there’s the real Boston heavyweight…
Cheers.
At the end of the day, its Frasier vs. Cheers isn’t it? And there wouldn’t be a Frasier without Cheers. So Boston gets the win here.
Yes Chick-Flick lovers, Sleepless in Seattle is a classic. But it’s not Seattle’s only claim to fame in the genre. 10 Things I Hate About You, Love Happens, An Officer and a Gentleman, the upcoming Fifty Shades of Grey film, and Say Anything…are all worthy of getting a spin this Valentine’s Day.
Some of my favorites include This Is Spinal Tap, War Games and 50/50. Add thrillers like Fear, The Hand That Rocks The Cradle and The Ring. And of course we can’t forget Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, Saving Silverman, and Harry and the Hendersons.
There’s a fun spectrum of films that come to mind when you think of films based in Boston.
Gritty action movies: The Equalizer, Boondock Saints, The Town…
Sports movies: Fever Pitch, Celtic Pride, and I’ll allow Field of Dreams.
Comedies: Legally Blonde and Ted
Oscar nominated dramas: Good Will Hunting, Mystic River, The Fighter, and The Departed.
As much as I love 50/50 and War Games, Seattle can’t compete with the heavy hitters that were filmed in Boston. How do you like them apples?
Visuals are helpful. Warning: you may get hungry.
Ditto.
I don’t think you can go wrong getting seafood in either town, but my tastebuds lean toward Boston for the pizza and sweets.
The Space Needle
Pike Place Fish Market
The Puget Sound
Safeco Field
…and the Freemont Troll. It’s under a bridge. And scary/adorable.
The Massachusetts State House
The Hatch Memorial Shell
The Freedom Trail
Fenway Park
…where everybody knows your name.
Close call, but how about that view in Seattle? Fenway Park will always have a place in my baseball heart but the Bridge Troll is kind of a deal breaker.
Starbucks vs. Facebook – Seattle: Both addicting and everywhere, but I don’t have to worry about baby pictures, candy crush invites or internet trolls at any of the 5 Starbucks in a 3 mile radius of my house.
Sports Other Than Football – Boston: Love Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp, Ken Griffey Jr. and Edgar Martinez, but how many championships does the city have outside of the football stadium?
Beer – Boston: The Seattle craft beer scene is definitely a thing. Black Raven, Elysian, Georgetown and Naked City are all notable breweries…but the Boston Beer Co. is America’s original.
Sorry, Star-Lord.
Let us know what you think and other ways your favorite city is better than the other by Tweeting @Mike_PiFF03.
It’s here. It’s finally here.
Feels like just yesterday we were drafting our teams. Some of you probably thought you were sneaky, taking Maurice Jones Drew in the late rounds. Others probably couldn’t believe they got Rob Gronkowski in the 4th round. And everybody who drafted Andrew Luck is likely bragging about where they picked him, right?
Then you had 13 weeks to tinker and toy with your lineup. Early on, it was adding Steve Smith Sr. for Eric Decker, Dwayne Allen for Jordan Reed, and Justin Forsett for Knowshon Moreno.
In October you saw Branden Oliver added for CJ Spiller, Odell Beckham Jr. for Victor Cruz, and Denard Robinson for Adrian Peterson.
And when it mattered most down the stretch, CJ Anderson for Ronnie Hillman, Jarvis Landry for Larry Percy Harvin, and Kenny Stills for Larry Fitzgerald.
So what do you do to have the edge in the playoffs?
You have your players that have been reliable all year and got you where you are, but you can always add help every week.
Colts RB – Daniel “Boom” Herron: Even after fumbling twice the last two weeks, the Colts are committed to running with Boom Herron. Herron has picked up where Ahmad Bradshaw left off by making Trent Richardson look sillier and averaging 7.65 yards per carry since Ahmad Bradshaw went on IR.
Washington TE – Jordan Reed: I mentioned it a week ago, and I was right. Jordan Reed is a better player when RGIII isn’t throwing to him. Colt McCoy gets the start last Sunday and Reed catches 9 passes on 11 targets for 123 yards. If you’re in need of a tight end or Julius Thomas’s status is making you pull your hair out, pickup Reed.
Panthers RB – Jonathan Stewart: DeAngello Williams has a broken hand. Broken hand or not, Jonathan Stewart was running better than Williams anyway. Stewart gained 110 yards total (85 rushing, 25 receiving) against the Vikings defense on Sunday. Even with a 3-8-1 record, the Panthers are in the playoff hunt and establishing some kind of illusion of a run game will be key if they want to steal the horrible NFC South.
Colts WR – Donte Moncrief: The word out of Indianapolis is that Donte Moncrief has surpassed Hakeem Nicks for the #3 receiver role. He’s a boom or bust type of player much like Terrance Williams was for Dallas in the first half of the season, but Reggie Wayne’s production is sloping the wrong way. 134 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 catches last week makes Moncrief very attractive for more Andrew Luck targets and for you to grab him if he’s available.
Quick Hits
And now for YOU time.
DB Moenning on Facebook: “Got two burning Flex spot questions for you. Pick 1: Keenan Allen or Giovani Bernard. Fred Jackson or Denard Robinson.”
Normally I lean toward running backs in this situation for guaranteed touches. Before his injury, Gio Bernard would have been a no-brainer. But since returning, the Bengals have given the starter reigns to Jeremy Hill, as well as the red zone carries. I could see them riding whoever the hot hand is against the Steelers…The Phillip Rivers target machine Keenan Allen is finally making the most of his opportunities. 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games (3x his total before then) and coming off an 11 catch 121 performance against Baltimore. The Packers 3rd WR just put up similar numbers against the Patriots and that’s why I like Allen better than Gio this week.
For your second conundrum, I like Denard Robinson better and here’s why. While Fred Jackson dispelled the running-back-by-committee approach for the Bills last weekend, he’s running into a buzz saw that is the Broncos run defense. The D-line has found their groove, and allowed Jamaal Charles just 59 yards total (35 rush, 24 rec.). The Bills have a defense that could prevent the Broncos from getting out to a crazy early lead that has forced most teams to give up on the run, but I’m not necessarily counting on it…Shoelace has had a tough go the last two weeks, and it’s mostly been because of game-flow circumstances. The Jaguars had to come back from a 20 point deficit in the first half last week and that helped Marqise Lee out more than Robinson. They should have better luck with time of possession early on against the Texans defense and that bodes well for Robinson, who even got some effective Wildcat plays against the Giants.
Ryan Ricci on Facebook: “Larry Donnell or Jordan Reed?”
As I mentioned earlier, Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Reed only means good things. Tight ends are what makes McCoy tick. If he’s healthy, go with Reed…I really don’t get Larry Donnell. I think some the occasional drop in his numbers is because the Giants OL can’t handle pass rushers without him blocking. He has a solid matchup against the Titans this week though. If Reed can’t go, Donnell will be a decent play in his place.
Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Romo or Tannehill?”
Tony Romo had a tough one last week. He’s dealing with a bad back but seemed to have a weekly routine to rest it. Romo throws 4 touchdowns in Week 12, goes just 3 days without taking a hit, and he has his worst game of the season. A full week with his regular routine against the Bears secondary may be the bounce back Romo needs. He threw 3 touchdowns against Chicago the last time he traveled to Soldier Field and the Bears are allowing 326.4 yards per game to competent quarterbacks (Stafford, Rodgers x2, Brady, Ryan)…Tannehill has good matchup against Baltimore, but Romo will be your guy.
Sam Kalmar on Facebook: “Terrance Williams or Malcom Floyd? Any potential waiver pickups suggestions welcome also.”
Terrance Williams has really fallen off in the last month. He started off hot and then Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarco Murray stopped sharing the targets from Romo. Bryant and Witten will benefit the most against the Bears soft press defense this weekend. Malcom Floyd would have been a nice play if he wasn’t going to draw Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner….I would recommend either Donte Moncrief or Stedman Bailey who I mentioned either, as well as Robert Woods who has emerged as a startable WR thanks to #OrtonMagic and a beat up Sammy Watkins.
I’ll be on a work trip in Phoenix till Sunday, but feel free to keep asking questions on either Facebook or Twitter.
Yes, Jim…playoffs.
A few of you aren’t stressing too bad about the idea because you’ve either clinched your playoff spot already, or your record indicates that your season is already over.
Many of you, though, are fighting tooth and nail for the last available spots in your league. The difference between keeping your season alive or playing in the superbly underwhelming consolation bracket could be an Andrew Luck pass to his left tackle…
(Good for you, Anthony.)
…or a Joe Haden interception.
So who will be the difference maker for your squad when EVERY…POINT…COUNTS? You’re looking for who’s hot, who’s consistent, and who has the best matchup:
Who’s hot?
Aaron Rodgers, that’s who. Rodgers has led his team to back-to-back 50 point games. He averaged 328 yards and 4.5 touchdowns without having to play in the 4th quarter of either of those games. His top 2 wide receivers, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, are on pace to break the league’s record for combined touchdown catches in a season, set by Wes Welker and Randy Moss in 2007. Now Rodgers faces a Vikings defense that has allowed a 75% completion percentage in their last 4 meetings and 3 or more touchdowns in 5 of the last 8 games against him.
Who’s consistent?
Despite the team’s turmoil in the offseason, and having to deal with a pair of touchdown vultures in Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro, Justin Forsett has been one of the league’s most consistent backs not named “DeMarco Murray”. Forsett has totaled at least 85 yards in each of his last 8 games and leads the league with 5.4 yards per carry. The Ravens are coming off a bye week to face the Saints on Monday Night Football and that should bode well for Forsett. The Saints have allowed a total of 430 yards to Jeremy Hill, Frank Gore, and Eddie Lacy in 3 of the last 4 weeks.
Who has the best matchup?
Aside from the guys who Rodgers throws to, it’s Dez Bryant against the Giants. Bryant leads the league in targets from within the 5 yard line with 7, which is more than the carries that most of the top running backs are getting from that distance. Bryant’s been on a scoring tear since his catching 9 passes for 151 yards in Week 7 against the Giants. He’s averaging 6 catches and 94 yards in his last 5 games against New York who will be without Prince Amukamara this weekend.
Quick Hits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lctROES1K1Q
(I don’t apologize for embedding this at all.)
And on that note…mail time? Mail time.
DB Moenning on Facebook: “Who to start – Denard Robinson v. Colts, Trent Richardson v. Jags, Jonas Gray v. Lions?”
If you hadn’t asked about him, Denard Robinson would likely have gotten a shoutout much earlier in this post for his consistency. Since taking over #1 running back duties in Week 7, he’s averaging 97 rush yards per game and scored 4 touchdowns in the 4 weeks before the bye. He faces a Colts defense this week that has allowed 140+ total yards to backs in 3 of their last 5 games. And they also let *gasp* Jonas Gray happen…By now, you know the story. His 200 yards and 4 touchdowns last week against Indy are probably why Jonas Gray is a part of this question right now. It was a classic Bill Belichick game plan. If his opponent is weak against the run, he will stomp them with whoever lines up in the backfield. That won’t be the case this week against the league’s best run defense. Expect more work for Shane Vereen through the air…While Trent Richardson isn’t a bad play against the Jaguars and no Ahmad Bradshaw, Robinson is your guy this week.
Pat Bauers on Facebook: “Owen Daniels or Vernon Davis?”
Does Vernon Davis still play for the Niners? You really couldn’t tell by the way he’s been used this season. He had a plum matchup against the Giants last week and caught just one pass. Based on the way this entire season has gone for Davis, I really don’t expect anything special from him this weekend…even against Washington. Go with Owen Daniels. Saints haven’t allowed much to tight ends, but Jermaine Gresham did score twice last week against them. Daniels is also another week healthier coming off the Ravens bye week and was picking up more and more targets going into it.
Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Charles Sims, Chris Ivory, or Jerick McKinnon?”
Not very high on any of your options, but Jerick McKinnon is your best bet. He and Matt Asiata combined for 118 yards against the Packers in their previous meeting, and it will be in the Vikings best interest to play the “time of possession” game this weekend. The Packers are also allowing the 8th most rush yards this season, and McKinnon is clearly the best run option up until the Vikings get to the 5 yard line…Next best will be Chris Ivory who has slipped as of late, but did score 2 TDs against the Bills in their previous meeting.
Billy Quesse on Facebook: “Flex: Mohamed Sanu, Cecil Shorts, Cordarrelle Patterson or Fred Jackson”
With Sanu losing targets dramatically because of AJ Green’s return, Fred Jackson having to face the stout Jets run defense and not 100%, and Cordarrelle Patterson just being bad…go with Cecil Shorts. He’s picking up all the targets that Allen Robinson left by going on IR. Allen Hurns is more boom or bust on the opposite side of the field while Shorts is the possession option.
Feel free to ask more questions through the weekend on Facebook and Twitter.
Just when you thought it was safe to drop Tom Brady…
Did anybody have more fun in Week 5 than Mr. Suave? It’s easy to kick a guy while he’s down, especially when you’re used to seeing that guy be on top of his game for as long as Tom Brady had been. Some were even suggesting the Patriots should trade him…I took a lot of pleasure in seeing Brady be Brady again. Against the Bengals, a top 5 defense this season, Brady threw for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns. Credit his offensive line for keeping the pocket clean, but also the game plan to utilize both Rob Gronkowski and newly acquired TE Tim Wright. We’ll see if that formula works on the road in Buffalo, where the Bills defensive line is really getting after the quarterback (19 sacks, 18 hits, and 50 hurries). It was good to see Brady get his high-fives again though.
More Week 5 Recap:
– There was a united Tiger Woods style fist pump for Eddie Lacy owners. If you held onto hope (like I did), you reaped all the benefits of a 105 yard rushing, 2 TD showing against the Vikings. As the Packers offense seems to be getting back on track, expect more goal line opportunities for the 2nd year back…You should see exactly why you took him with either of your first two picks.
– Tony Romo made my favorite throw of the weekend. After nearly being Watt-Smashed, Romo shook off the $100 million monster and threw this bomb…How’s that back, Tony?
– Are you okay, Percy Harvin owners? I may have lost years off of my life watching each of his 3 touchdowns called back because of penalties (2 of which were highly questionable). Here’s a reminder of what could have been.
– And wha-happened to that epic Broncos-Cardinals matchup we were looking for? It felt like a Thursday Night Football game. If you had Peyton Manning (479 yards, 4 TDs), Demaryius Thomas (8 catches, 226 yards, 2 TDs), or Julius Thomas (6 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs)…you weren’t too upset about it.
I’m happy to see that we have more than WR questions this week from the mailbag. As much as I love you guys asking me for input, variety is the spice of life.
Andrew Hirt on Facebook: “Dalton or Roethlisberger?”
We saw this question repeatedly last season. Being in the same division, there are plenty of comparisons between the two quarterbacks on a regular basis. Dalton has had a slow start scoring with just 4 touchdowns in 4 games and only 1 interception. Reason for that is the lack of attempts in Hue Jackson’s system. That could change against Carolina as the Panthers are 7th in pass attempts against them, but losing AJ Green to a foot injury in practice suggests otherwise. After the game Matt Forte had in Week 5 (61 yards rushing, 12 catches for 105 yards receiving), anticipate the bulk of the workload to go to Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill…You probably hoped for a better game out of Ben Roethlisberger against the Jacksonville defense, which makes me concerned for the Steelers offense in general. The Cleveland secondary is ripe to bounce back against though. Joe Haden is hurt and likely not playing this week. First Round draft pick Justin Gilbert was benched against Tennessee for getting continuously burned by Kendall Wright. Start Roethlisberger in the AFC North rivalry game, despite Snoop Dogg (err Lion?) hating his offensive coordinator.
Chris Hankins on Facebook: “Picked up Hillman now that Ball is out. Should I start him over Trent Richardson?”
I know you weren’t the only one to pick up Ronnie Hillman in the mad dash following Montee Ball’s injury. Keep in mind though, CJ Anderson is a favorite of Peyton Manning’s and better built for around the goal line. Only reason Anderson wasn’t active last week was because he doesn’t play special teams. Carries are sparse to begin with in the Manning system, so I don’t feel great about the potential for Hillman’s touches against an already stout Jets run defense…And then there’s Trent Richardson. Richardson continues to just be flat out underwhelming and is being outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw. Richardson a pretty weak flex start at best on the road going to Houston. The edge goes to Hillman simply for his pass catching ability.
Bob Kakareka on Facebook: “Should I trade Cobb and Megatron for Julius Thomas and Kendall Wright?”
I was asked about a Megatron trade a few weeks ago and was super confident he would bounce back from injury and do his thing again. That hasn’t happened yet and Calvin Johnson is still hurt. What makes this a tough call is Randall Cobb leading all receivers in receiving out of the slot and the Packers offense catching fire. Cobb has a great matchup this week alone going up against Cortland Finnegan. The question is how desperate are you for wins in the short term? Johnson could sit this week and be down for a few games but then come back and be Megatron again. Julius Thomas will continue getting touchdowns with Peyton Manning. And Kendall Wright has 3 favorable matchups against Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston in a row…If you need the wins now, DO IT. If you’re in a comfortable spot in the standings and think you’ll make the playoffs, don’t do it. Calvin Johnson could be your difference down the stretch.
Rachel Bruce on Facebook: “Cutler or Wilson?”
If you’re a Bears fan, Jay Cutler has probably bummed you out throwing bad interceptions at really bad instances. From a Fantasy Football standpoint though, Cutty Does It. Only Andrew Luck has thrown more touchdowns this season and he has multiple TDs in every game this season. The Falcons have one of the worst secondary units in football right now with starting safety William Moore injured. This weekend has strong shootout potential between for the Bears on the road…On and off the field, I love Russell Wilson. Wilson continues to prove he is one of the best in the league every week. However, his matchup with Cowboys is tougher than what he had against Washington on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys pass defense is much improved from a year ago, so it might be a heavy volume of Marshawn Lynch carries for the Seahawks. Go with the points and take Cutler.
Brennan Casey on Facebook: “Start 2: Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Branden Oliver.”
First, go with Branden Oliver. Oliver is a player made for the Mike McCoy offense in San Diego and you have to like his matchup against the Raiders. Even when Ryan Matthews returns, one should assume Oliver will take on the Danny Woodhead role from a year ago…This is where it gets tricky. Chris Ivory is clearly the best player in the Jets backfield, but how many chances will he get when they are forced to play from behind against the Broncos? I like Ahmad Bradshaw better after he finally got more attention than Richardson last week. Texans are the 4th worst defense against the run, and Bradshaw should be able to take advantage of that.
Sam Kalmar on Facebook: “Do I sit DeMarco murray against Seattle?”
I understand the worry when playing anyone against Seattle’s defense. They are the 2nd best run defense right now and have only given up 1 rushing touchdown. When you have the league’s leading rusher, you have to play him. DeMarco Murray is also a great threat in the pass game, and that could be the route the Cowboys offense goes if they can’t get the run going early. Keep an eye on Murray’s carries though as the season progresses. He’s on pace for more than 400 carries, and that’s just ridiculous for a back who hasn’t stayed healthy for an entire season yet.
Great stuff this week! If you have more questions, you are welcome to ask on Facebook and Twitter through the weekend.
If there is one thing you can say about the AFC East, they know how to make headlines. Whether it’s bullying and abuse by teammates in Miami, Bon Jovi and Donald Trump vying for ownership in Buffalo, Rex Ryan saying something stupid in New York (but really New Jersey), or Tom Brady…being Tom Brady…it’s a division that gets people talking.
On the football field though, it’s been all Patriots. Since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, they have won the division 11 times (in 13 years). The rest of the division will try to prevent New England from winning their sixth straight division title in 2014, but we’re more concerned with who will make your fantasy team better.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills haven’t had a winning season since 2004 and they have finished 6-10 each of the last 3 seasons. Second year head coach Doug Marrone’s squad ranked 2nd in rushing last season, 2nd in defensive interceptions, and 4th against passing, but struggled mightily to put points on the board. The Bills hope to change that with their new receiver additions and keeping EJ Manuel healthy. Good luck, Buffalo.
QB EJ Manuel
11 TD/9 INT, 1,972 pass yards, 186 rush yards 2 rush TD in 2013 (10 games)
Many were surprised when the Bills chose EJ Manuel before any quarterback in the 2013 NFL Draft. Going 16th overall, the Florida State quarterback was the ONLY one at his position selected in the first round. Those who followed Manuel in college weren’t surprised based on his combination of size, speed, and arm strength, but knee injuries and accuracy issues still plagued him in his rookie season. The Bills run a no-huddle offense (much like Philadelphia’s) that is dependent on the running game and quick hitting passes downfield. Manuel has two new talented receivers in rookie Sammy Watkins and former Buccaneer Mike Williams to make it work. Watkins and Williams have bigger catch radiuses that should help Manuel execute, as long as he stays healthy.
Recommendation: You hope a full offseason gave Manuel time to work on his accuracy but I’m more concerned with his knee injuries. He’ll have a chance to dispel that concern, but let him do that on the waiver wire. If you have a deep bench, MAYBE pick him in the last round.
RB CJ Spiller
933 rush yards, 2 TD / 33 rec, 185 rec yards, 0 TD in 2013
CJ Spiller led the league’s 2nd best running team in yardage but struggled to find the end zone. That has been the story for the 9th overall pick from 2010 in his Buffalo tenure. Being great between the 20’s doesn’t necessarily translate to points for a player, but sometimes does for someone else in the backfield (see Fred Jackson next down). Spiller, while still playing 15 games, also dealt with an ankle injury that could have been a cause for his drop in production from 2012 (1,244 rush yards, 6 TDs, 43 rec, 459 rec yards). He only had 5 less carries but averaged 4.6 yards per as opposed to 6.0. On top of the motivation for 2014 being a contract year, Spiller can benefit from the addition of Watkins to stretch the field and take pressure off the front for him to run on. Spiller also likes the Bills’ added running back depth of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon to ease his workload.
Recommendation: Have you learned your lesson yet, sports fans? Every year, Spiller’s potential gets him over-drafted in most leagues. DON’T DRAFT ON POTENTIAL. Spiller’s ceiling has always been high but how often has he reached that in 4 seasons? He is a solid RB2 for his value and should go in middle rounds.
RB Fred Jackson
890 rush yards, 9 TD / 47 rec, 387 rec yards 1 TD
The veteran running back out of Coe College goes into his 8th season with a new contract extension, which he signed right before training camp. Despite dealing with a knee injury, Jackson played in all 16 games and gained 1,277 yards from scrimmage, his 3rd best total of his career. Jackson’s 10 touchdowns made him Buffalo’s only real scoring threat in 2013. He’ll still split carries with Spiller but the extension shows that the Bills are committed to the 33-year old back and expect Jackson to be just as reliable.
Recommendation: Jackson is traditionally a solid waiver wire pickup for Fantasy owners. While his total production was better than Spiller’s last year, Spiller is still the #1 back. The potentially improved passing game is also more beneficial to Splitter. Jackson is better served to round out your draft.
WR Sammy Watkins
101 rec, 1,464 rec yards, 12 TD at Clemson in 2013*
The Bills went all in trading for Sammy Watkins. To select him 4th overall, Buffalo dealt their 9th overall pick in 2014 and their 1st and 4th round picks in 2015. Will Watkins be the difference that makes Marrone’s offense work? Since the NFL merger (the beginning of the Super Bowl era), just 12 rookie receivers have gained over 1,000 yards and only 5 scored 10+ touchdowns. If Manuel can lead him consistently, if defenses are zeroed in on Spiller, and if Mike Williams can draw coverage, Watkins can do it…That’s only 3 of the Ifs right there.
Recommendation: Watkins has the potential to be a very special player in the NFL. But again, DON’T DRAFT ON POTENTIAL. A lot of his success is going to depend on what his quarterback can do. If you have your heart set on Watkins, take him late. (Note: I drafted Alshon Jeffery with my last pick and we saw how that worked out, right?)
Waiver Watch:
RB Bryce Brown
WR Mike Williams
WR Robert Woods
TE Scott Chandler
Miami Dolphins
Is there a seat hotter in the NFL than head coach Joe Philbin’s? Rex Ryan, maybe, but he has too much “cushion” to feel it. We’ve exhausted the bullying narrative enough and how irresponsible Philbin was handling it, so let’s focus on football. The Dolphins finished 8-8 last season and then replaced offensive coordinator Mike Sherman with Eagles QB coach Bill Lazor to improve the 7th worst scoring team in 2013. In order for the Dolphins to get better, they’ll probably want to keep their starting quarterback off his butt.
QB Ryan Tannehill
24 TD/17 INT, 3,913 pass yards, 238 rush yards 1 TD in 2013.
The 2012 draft is always talked about as the one that produced Andrew Luck, Robert Griffen III, and Russell Wilson. Often overlooked is Ryan Tannehill, who was selected 8th overall out of Texas A&M. Tannehill also threw for more yards than any of the quarterbacks mentioned previously in 2013, and more touchdowns than both Luck and Griffen. Tannehill doubled his touchdown pass total from his rookie year, but was sacked more than anyone in the league (58) and by a lot. His new OC, Lazor, has brought the Chip Kelly system to Miami. That means faster tempo, quicker passes, and more athletic linemen to keep Tannehill protected. But it will really depend on the rest of his teammates buying into the new system.
Recommendation: Tannehill is a solid QB2 for your roster. He’s going very under the radar so you should be able to get him late.
RBs Knowshon Moreno & Lamar Miller
Moreno: 1,038 rush yards, 10 TD / 60 rec, 548 rec yards, 3 TD in 2013
Miller: 709 rush yards, 2 TD/ 26 rec, 170 rec yards
Knowshon Moreno BROKE OUT in 2013. In his 5th season, Moreno ranked 4th among running backs in rushing touchdowns (tied with Adrian Peterson) and accumulated 1,586 total yards from scrimmage. How much of that success, though, was thanks to Peyton Manning? The Broncos were the highest scoring team in the NFL, got in the end zone early and often, forced defenses into pass coverage, and then would hand it off to the running back for the rest of the way. Regardless, the Dolphins thought highly enough of Moreno to sign him in hopes he would improve a running game that ranked near the bottom in 2013. Many assumed Moreno was already penciled in as the starting running back. Not Lamar Miller.
Miller took the signing as a challenge and has proven so in offseason workouts and camp. Moreno has been dealing with a hamstring injury and Miller has seized the opportunity. The former Miami Hurricane rushed for 709 yards in his sophomore season last year, but sees himself putting up LeSean McCoy-like numbers in the new system…or is trying to shape his game that way. While Miller ran for more than 60 yards 8 times last season, he was held under 10 yards 4 times. McCoy never rushed for less than 38 in 2013.
Recommendation: People will overdraft for Moreno. Don’t be one of them. Competition at a position is great for a team, but not necessarily for Fantasy. Since Moreno has proven it, he can be an RB2 but keep an eye out for Miller for that “McCoy potential”. Draft him late.
WR Mike Wallace
73 rec, 930 rec yards, 5 TD in 2013
Mike Wallace was supposed to be the big free agent addition for the Dolphins last year. He may be poised to be better utilized in 2014. Wallace seems to have bought into Lazor’s system and is being moved all over the field to put him and the team in the best position to succeed, much like how DeSean Jackson was used by the Eagles in 2013. It will be interesting to see how that game planning will effect fellow receiver Brian Hartline, who had much of the same production as Wallace a year ago.
Recommendation: Will Wallace be Lazor’s D-Jax? He could, but don’t draft him high without knowing for sure. Pick Wallace in the mid-late rounds. He could at least be a strong flex.
TE Charles Clay
69 rec, 759 rec yards, 6 TD
The converted fullback emerged as a Top 10 tight end in 2013. Charles Clay was listed 2nd on the Dolphins depth chart before Dustin Keller’s preseason knee injury. Then he caught 10 passes for 163 yards in the first two weeks of the regular season and never looked back. Clay ranked 7th among TEs in receptions, 9th in yards, and 8th in touchdowns. Unfortunately Clay has missed most of the preseason due to a knee injury, but says he’ll be ready to go by the season opener.
Recommendation: After the top end scoring tight ends come off the board, there’s a significant drop off in fantasy scoring. You can wait till mid-late rounds to draft Clay.
Waiver Watch
WR Brian Hartline
RB/WR/KR Marcus Thigpen
TE Dion Simms
New England Patriots
Bill Belichick is looking for his 12th divisional championship in his Patriots tenure. Belichick has also NEVER cared about your fantasy stats. If you’ve ever had a Patriots running back on your team, you know this. The Patriots ranked 3rd in scoring last year, 7th in offensive yardage, and 8th in turnover ratio (+9). The production is there, but the question will be where it comes from.
QB Tom Brady
25 TD/11 INT, 4,343 pass yards in 2013
Tom Brady saw a decline in his numbers last season after throwing 34+ touchdowns each of the previous 3. The 37 year-old 9-time pro bowl quarterback was inconsistent week-to-week when it came to scoring for fantasy owners. Brady could go blank in the TD category against the Jets one week, and then throw 4 against the Steelers. Some blame Brady’s age and arm strength. Others blame the lack of talent and experience supporting him. Belichick’s commitment to the running game had a lot to do with it as well. In the final two weeks (your post season), fantasy owners had to look elsewhere for quarterbacks because all Brady was doing was handing off to his running backs. Brady could bounce back having a full year with his young receivers, and if Gronk and Amendola stay healthy…which is no sure thing. But one thing is; Brady still wins games. He had 5 comeback wins in the 4th quarter in 2014, 3 of which came in row weeks 11-13 (7 TD/2 INT, avg. 101.3 QB rating)
Recommendation: Brady is still a winner and a franchise quarterback, but he isn’t a top 5 Fantasy QB. Because there are so many questions of where the production will come from for New England this season, don’t take him until the Top 5 QBs come off the board.
RB Stevan Ridley
773 rush yards, 7 TD / 10 rec, 62 rec yards 0 TD
Stevan Ridley seemed to break out in 2012, running for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also stood out as THE guy in the backfield getting 290 carries, nearly 100 more than Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Brandon Bolden combined. After issues securing the ball arose, Ridley saw his playing time, carries, and yardage split with LeGarrette Blount. Blount is now backing up Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh, but Ridley isn’t in the clear at all when it comes to the Patriots depth chart. He caught a case of the fumbles in the recent preseason game against the Eagles, and 4th round pick James White out of Wisconsin is showing potential of being an all-around starting back. That is the other knock on Ridley’s game. He isn’t a dependable pass catcher like White can be and like Vereen has been in the Patriots system. In limited action, Vereen caught 47 passes for 427 yards last season.
Recommendation: Whoever is in the backfield for Tom Brady in the red zone has a great chance of scoring. The theme though may be Men at Work’s “Who Can It Be Now?” If you intend to draft Ridley, make him your flex with RB2 potential. White may be someone worth looking at to close out your draft.
WR Julian Edelman
105 rec 1,056 rec yards, 6 TD, 374 return yards in 2013
If one thing is clear going into the 2014 season, I think it’s that Julian Edelman is Tom Brady’s guy. With the departure of Wes Welker, Edelman reaped all the benefits playing in all 16 games and ranking 4th in receptions among receivers. With rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson unable to catch the ball early on and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski injured, Edelman HAD to be the guy. His returning skills also add a dynamic that set him apart as a Fantasy option. With the addition of former Panthers WR Brandon LaFell and the returns of Gronk and Amendola, Edelman may see less targets, but can you depend on the latter two to stay healthy?
Recommendation: While I don’t think Edelman is as polished a receiver or as dependable as Welker, I do think he is Brady’s security blanket…especially in quick hitting no-huddle drives. Edelman may not be the big time scoring threat, but he will get the catches in between the 20’s. He’s graduated from a waiver wire watch to a WR2 for your roster.
TE Rob Gronkowski
39 rec, 4 TD, 592 yards in 2013 (7 games played)
Rob Gronkowski started playing in full team drills for the first time this week after undergoing surgery for a torn ACL January 9th. Gronkowski had been held out of contact drills until now, but plans to play in all 16 games this season. The last time Gronk played a full season (2011,) he led the league in touchdown receptions with 17. Before 2013, he recorded at least 10 touchdowns in each season of his career. Even when Gronk was limited to 11 games in 2012, he scored 11 touchdowns. When right, Gronk is one of the best red zone options in the game. That, plus his injury history, should make anyone cautiously optimistic in 2014.
Recommendation: The injury history does scare me with Gronkowski but then I look at those 2011 numbers. I don’t think he’s going to go for 1,300 yards again but Gronk is a viable option after Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, and Julius Thomas. Just be sure you draft a solid backup for him.
Waiver Watch:
RB James White
RB Shane Vereen
WR Danny Amendola
WR Brandon LaFell
WR Kenbrell Thompkins
TE Michael Hoomanwanui
New York Jets
Before the two tenants of MetLife Stadium meet for their annual preseason game, rookie running back Andre Williams told New York writers, “I think the Giants are the real New York team.” You wouldn’t think a head coach going into his 6th season would take the comments of another team’s newly drafted 4th round pick to heart, but of course Ryan did. “Last time I saw him he was getting smoked by Clemson,” Ryan responded. “I have a funny feeling he’s going to get some Riddells [helmets] on him.” Almost as thin as Ryan’s skin was the Jets offense last season that ranked nearly last in scoring.
QB Geno Smith
12 TD/21 INT, 3,046 pass yards, 366 rush yards, 6 rush TDs in 2013
Geno Smith didn’t have the smoothest rookie season starting all 16 games in 2013. He did, however, win the final 3 to get the Jets to .500 for the season. Smith did so by utilizing his mobility, averaging 6 yards per carry and scoring 3 touchdowns on the ground in the last quarter of the season. Smith looks to improve his passing game still after throwing multiple interceptions in 7 games last season. Michael Vick was brought in for competition and for having history with Jets OC Marty Mornhinweg (formerly of Philadelphia), but Smith seems to have locked down the starting role for New York.
Recommendation: I don’t expect Geno Smith to be drafted in most leagues, but keep an eye on his progress during his sophomore season. If QBs starting going down, Smith could be in demand.
RB Chris Johnson
1,077 rush yards, 6 TD / 42 rec, 345 rec yards, 4 TD in 2013
After 6 seasons with the Tennessee Titans, Chris Johnson needed a change in scenery. The 3-time pro bowler and one time 2,000 yard rusher joins a running back group that ranked 6th on the ground last season. He blames the decline in his production on the way he was handled the last two seasons saying the Titans offense was “too predictable.” Johnson, who has home run ability, won’t be doing all the heavy lifting in New York as they do plan to use a running back-by-committee strategy. The hot back out of Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Bilal Powell will be the one who plays more in Mornhinweg’s system.
Recommendation: The committee strategy is an annoying one for fantasy owners. Johnson is the back with some hardware and game changing ability, so he should be the first of the Jets RBs to go…but not until late.
WR Eric Decker
87 rec, 1,288 yards, 11 TD in 2013
There is no doubt Eric Decker’s best seasons had something to do with Peyton Manning being his quarterback. His production nearly doubled when he started hearing “Omaha!” at the line of scrimmage, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a talented receiver. The Jets signed Decker to be their #1 option for Geno Smith to throw to, but he has dealt with injuries during camp that have kept him out of practice. Decker is confident he’ll be fine for the season health-wise, but two questions linger. Will his new young quarterback be able to get him the ball? And will the other receivers draw double coverage away from him like his teammates in Denver did?
Recommendation: I really don’t have a lot of faith in the Jets’ passing game. And as mentioned prior, there was a much more talented corps in Denver that helped Decker get open. He is still the best option downfield for Smith, and is more valuable to be drafted in later rounds, low end WR2/Flex option.
Waiver Watch:
QB Michael Vick
RB Chris Ivory
RB Bilal Powell
WR David Nelson
TE Jeff Cumberland
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