Tom Brady

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NFL Week 14 Fantasy Mailbag

It’s here. It’s finally here.

Feels like just yesterday we were drafting our teams. Some of you probably thought you were sneaky, taking Maurice Jones Drew in the late rounds. Others probably couldn’t believe they got Rob Gronkowski in the 4th round. And everybody who drafted Andrew Luck is likely bragging about where they picked him, right?

Then you had 13 weeks to tinker and toy with your lineup. Early on, it was adding Steve Smith Sr. for Eric Decker, Dwayne Allen for Jordan Reed, and Justin Forsett for Knowshon Moreno.

Forsett vs. Pitt

In October you saw Branden Oliver added for CJ Spiller, Odell Beckham Jr. for Victor Cruz, and Denard Robinson for Adrian Peterson.

Denard GIF

And when it mattered most down the stretch, CJ Anderson for Ronnie Hillman, Jarvis Landry for Larry Percy Harvin, and Kenny Stills for Larry Fitzgerald.

Kenny Stills

So what do you do to have the edge in the playoffs?

You have your players that have been reliable all year and got you where you are, but you can always add help every week.

Colts RB – Daniel “Boom” Herron: Even after fumbling twice the last two weeks, the Colts are committed to running with Boom Herron. Herron has picked up where Ahmad Bradshaw left off by making Trent Richardson look sillier and averaging 7.65 yards per carry since Ahmad Bradshaw went on IR.

Washington TE – Jordan Reed: I mentioned it a week ago, and I was right. Jordan Reed is a better player when RGIII isn’t throwing to him. Colt McCoy gets the start last Sunday and Reed catches 9 passes on 11 targets for 123 yards. If you’re in need of a tight end or Julius Thomas’s status is making you pull your hair out, pickup Reed.

Panthers RB – Jonathan Stewart: DeAngello Williams has a broken hand. Broken hand or not, Jonathan Stewart was running better than Williams anyway. Stewart gained 110 yards total (85 rushing, 25 receiving) against the Vikings defense on Sunday. Even with a 3-8-1 record, the Panthers are in the playoff hunt and establishing some kind of illusion of a run game will be key if they want to steal the horrible NFC South.

Colts WR – Donte Moncrief: The word out of Indianapolis is that Donte Moncrief has surpassed Hakeem Nicks for the #3 receiver role. He’s a boom or bust type of player much like Terrance Williams was for Dallas in the first half of the season, but Reggie Wayne’s production is sloping the wrong way. 134 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 catches last week makes Moncrief very attractive for more Andrew Luck targets and for you to grab him if he’s available.

Quick Hits

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick…WHA-HAPPENED? One minute, the “bearded one” was being benched for Ryan Mallett. The next he’s throwing 6 touchdown passes. This is the same Fitz-Beard that averaged an INT per game, and couldn’t find Andre Johnson in the end zone (he did on Sunday). It seems head coach Bill O’Brien has taken off the training wheels finally and airing it out. DeAndre Hopkins had 9 catches for 239 yards and 2 TDs while JJ Watt caught his 3rd off the season. They won’t be playing stats padding Titans again, but they will see the Jaguars this weekend for more air-time.

JJ Watt TD #3

  • Can we talk about the Rams? They only have 5 wins this year, and really that could have them first in the abysmal NFC South. 3 of those 5 wins have come against playoff contenders (Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers) and they just beat the Raiders 52-0. For a team decimated by injuries, they sure don’t act like it. Stedman Bailey (another guy to pick up for your playoff run) has emerged as Shaun Hill’s go-to receiver with 12 catches, 189 yards and a TD on 15 targets the past two weeks. Bailey had 100 yards in the first quarter alone against the Raiders. And Tre Mason just scored 3 touchdowns (2 rush, 1 rec.). He may have just scored again on the Raiders, I’m not sure.

Tre Mason TD

  • And bouncing back from having his winning streak snapped, Tom Brady catapults himself to MVP frontrunner…of commercials. That mullet is…beautiful.

And now for YOU time. 

DB Moenning on Facebook: “Got two burning Flex spot questions for you. Pick 1: Keenan Allen or Giovani Bernard. Fred Jackson or Denard Robinson.”

Normally I lean toward running backs in this situation for guaranteed touches. Before his injury, Gio Bernard would have been a no-brainer. But since returning, the Bengals have given the starter reigns to Jeremy Hill, as well as the red zone carries. I could see them riding whoever the hot hand is against the Steelers…The Phillip Rivers target machine Keenan Allen is finally making the most of his opportunities. 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games (3x his total before then) and coming off an 11 catch 121 performance against Baltimore. The Packers 3rd WR just put up similar numbers against the Patriots and that’s why I like Allen better than Gio this week.

For your second conundrum, I like Denard Robinson better and here’s why. While Fred Jackson dispelled the running-back-by-committee approach for the Bills last weekend, he’s running into a buzz saw that is the Broncos run defense. The D-line has found their groove, and allowed Jamaal Charles just 59 yards total (35 rush, 24 rec.). The Bills have a defense that could prevent the Broncos from getting out to a crazy early lead that has forced most teams to give up on the run, but I’m not necessarily counting on it…Shoelace has had a tough go the last two weeks, and it’s mostly been because of game-flow circumstances. The Jaguars had to come back from a 20 point deficit in the first half last week and that helped Marqise Lee out more than Robinson. They should have better luck with time of possession early on against the Texans defense and that bodes well for Robinson, who even got some effective Wildcat plays against the Giants.

Ryan Ricci on Facebook: “Larry Donnell or Jordan Reed?”

As I mentioned earlier, Colt McCoy throwing to Jordan Reed only means good things. Tight ends are what makes McCoy tick. If he’s healthy, go with Reed…I really don’t get Larry Donnell. I think some the occasional drop in his numbers is because the Giants OL can’t handle pass rushers without him blocking. He has a solid matchup against the Titans this week though. If Reed can’t go, Donnell will be a decent play in his place.

Craig Bucy on Facebook: “Romo or Tannehill?”

Tony Romo had a tough one last week. He’s dealing with a bad back but seemed to have a weekly routine to rest it. Romo throws 4 touchdowns in Week 12, goes just 3 days without taking a hit, and he has his worst game of the season. A full week with his regular routine against the Bears secondary may be the bounce back Romo needs. He threw 3 touchdowns against Chicago the last time he traveled to Soldier Field and the Bears are allowing 326.4 yards per game to competent quarterbacks (Stafford, Rodgers x2, Brady, Ryan)…Tannehill has good matchup against Baltimore, but Romo will be your guy.

Sam Kalmar on Facebook: “Terrance Williams or Malcom Floyd? Any potential waiver pickups suggestions welcome also.”

Terrance Williams has really fallen off in the last month. He started off hot and then Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarco Murray stopped sharing the targets from Romo. Bryant and Witten will benefit the most against the Bears soft press defense this weekend. Malcom Floyd would have been a nice play if he wasn’t going to draw Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner….I would recommend either Donte Moncrief or Stedman Bailey who I mentioned either, as well as Robert Woods who has emerged as a startable WR thanks to #OrtonMagic and a beat up Sammy Watkins.

I’ll be on a work trip in Phoenix till Sunday, but feel free to keep asking questions on either Facebook or Twitter. 

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NFL Week 6 Fantasy Mailbag

Just when you thought it was safe to drop Tom Brady…

cue the Jaws theme

Tom Brady hot potatoe

Did anybody have more fun in Week 5 than Mr. Suave? It’s easy to kick a guy while he’s down, especially when you’re used to seeing that guy be on top of his game for as long as Tom Brady had been. Some were even suggesting the Patriots should trade him…I took a lot of pleasure in seeing Brady be Brady again. Against the Bengals, a top 5 defense this season, Brady threw for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns. Credit his offensive line for keeping the pocket clean, but also the game plan to utilize both Rob Gronkowski and newly acquired TE Tim Wright. We’ll see if that formula works on the road in Buffalo, where the Bills defensive line is really getting after the quarterback (19 sacks, 18 hits, and 50 hurries). It was good to see Brady get his high-fives again though.

More Week 5 Recap:

– There was a united Tiger Woods style fist pump for Eddie Lacy owners. If you held onto hope (like I did), you reaped all the benefits of a 105 yard rushing, 2 TD showing against the Vikings. As the Packers offense seems to be getting back on track, expect more goal line opportunities for the 2nd year back…You should see exactly why you took him with either of your first two picks.

– Tony Romo made my favorite throw of the weekend. After nearly being Watt-Smashed, Romo shook off the $100 million monster and threw this bomb…How’s that back, Tony?

Romo bomb

– Are you okay, Percy Harvin owners? I may have lost years off of my life watching each of his 3 touchdowns called back because of penalties (2 of which were highly questionable). Here’s a reminder of what could have been.

– And wha-happened to that epic Broncos-Cardinals matchup we were looking for? It felt like a Thursday Night Football game. If you had Peyton Manning (479 yards, 4 TDs), Demaryius Thomas (8 catches, 226 yards, 2 TDs), or Julius Thomas (6 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs)…you weren’t too upset about it.

I’m happy to see that we have more than WR questions this week from the mailbag. As much as I love you guys asking me for input, variety is the spice of life.

Andrew Hirt on Facebook: “Dalton or Roethlisberger?”

We saw this question repeatedly last season. Being in the same division, there are plenty of comparisons between the two quarterbacks on a regular basis. Dalton has had a slow start scoring with just 4 touchdowns in 4 games and only 1 interception. Reason for that is the lack of attempts in Hue Jackson’s system. That could change against Carolina as the Panthers are 7th in pass attempts against them, but losing AJ Green to a foot injury in practice suggests otherwise. After the game Matt Forte had in Week 5 (61 yards rushing, 12 catches for 105 yards receiving), anticipate the bulk of the workload to go to Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill…You probably hoped for a better game out of Ben Roethlisberger against the Jacksonville defense, which makes me concerned for the Steelers offense in general. The Cleveland secondary is ripe to bounce back against though. Joe Haden is hurt and likely not playing this week. First Round draft pick Justin Gilbert was benched against Tennessee for getting continuously burned by Kendall Wright. Start Roethlisberger in the AFC North rivalry game, despite Snoop Dogg (err Lion?) hating his offensive coordinator.

Chris Hankins on Facebook: “Picked up Hillman now that Ball is out. Should I start him over Trent Richardson?”

I know you weren’t the only one to pick up Ronnie Hillman in the mad dash following Montee Ball’s injury. Keep in mind though, CJ Anderson is a favorite of Peyton Manning’s and better built for around the goal line. Only reason Anderson wasn’t active last week was because he doesn’t play special teams. Carries are sparse to begin with in the Manning system, so I don’t feel great about the potential for Hillman’s touches against an already stout Jets run defense…And then there’s Trent Richardson. Richardson continues to just be flat out underwhelming and is being outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw. Richardson a pretty weak flex start at best on the road going to Houston. The edge goes to Hillman simply for his pass catching ability.

Bob Kakareka on Facebook: “Should I trade Cobb and Megatron for Julius Thomas and Kendall Wright?”

I was asked about a Megatron trade a few weeks ago and was super confident he would bounce back from injury and do his thing again. That hasn’t happened yet and Calvin Johnson is still hurt. What makes this a tough call is Randall Cobb leading all receivers in receiving out of the slot and the Packers offense catching fire. Cobb has a great matchup this week alone going up against Cortland Finnegan. The question is how desperate are you for wins in the short term? Johnson could sit this week and be down for a few games but then come back and be Megatron again. Julius Thomas will continue getting touchdowns with Peyton Manning. And Kendall Wright has 3 favorable matchups against Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston in a row…If you need the wins now, DO IT. If you’re in a comfortable spot in the standings and think you’ll make the playoffs, don’t do it. Calvin Johnson could be your difference down the stretch.

Rachel Bruce on Facebook: “Cutler or Wilson?”

If you’re a Bears fan, Jay Cutler has probably bummed you out throwing bad interceptions at really bad instances. From a Fantasy Football standpoint though, Cutty Does It. Only Andrew Luck has thrown more touchdowns this season and he has multiple TDs in every game this season. The Falcons have one of the worst secondary units in football right now with starting safety William Moore injured. This weekend has strong shootout potential between for the Bears on the road…On and off the field, I love Russell Wilson. Wilson continues to prove he is one of the best in the league every week. However, his matchup with Cowboys is tougher than what he had against Washington on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys pass defense is much improved from a year ago, so it might be a heavy volume of Marshawn Lynch carries for the Seahawks. Go with the points and take Cutler.

Brennan Casey on Facebook: “Start 2: Chris Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Branden Oliver.”

First, go with Branden Oliver. Oliver is a player made for the Mike McCoy offense in San Diego and you have to like his matchup against the Raiders. Even when Ryan Matthews returns, one should assume Oliver will take on the Danny Woodhead role from a year ago…This is where it gets tricky. Chris Ivory is clearly the best player in the Jets backfield, but how many chances will he get when they are forced to play from behind against the Broncos? I like Ahmad Bradshaw better after he finally got more attention than Richardson last week. Texans are the 4th worst defense against the run, and Bradshaw should be able to take advantage of that.

Sam Kalmar on Facebook: “Do I sit DeMarco murray against Seattle?”

I understand the worry when playing anyone against Seattle’s defense. They are the 2nd best run defense right now and have only given up 1 rushing touchdown. When you have the league’s leading rusher, you have to play him. DeMarco Murray is also a great threat in the pass game, and that could be the route the Cowboys offense goes if they can’t get the run going early. Keep an eye on Murray’s carries though as the season progresses. He’s on pace for more than 400 carries, and that’s just ridiculous for a back who hasn’t stayed healthy for an entire season yet.

Great stuff this week! If you have more questions, you are welcome to ask on Facebook and Twitter through the weekend.