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NFL Week 1 Fantasy Mailbag

Finally…

The NFL returns and 2014 is set to kickoff right with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers. Fans of both teams, and the NFL in general, still have those final moments from their matchup in 2012 fresh in their minds. There’s no way you forgot about this one…

I can only imagine how much play Russell Wilson’s Hail Mary will get on all of the highlight programs, pre-game shows and during the game itself tonight. But while we remember the wild outcome of that game, the absolute beat down the Seahawks put on the Broncos in the Super Bowl, and whoever won your Fantasy league last year (begrudgingly), today marks a clean slate for everyone. 

With a new season come new traditions. Each week I will take any Fantasy Football questions you may have and answer them the best I can before Thursday Night Football. Whether it’s on Facebook, Twitter, or emailing me at piff.michael@gmail.com, I’ll help with any roster questions you may have to set your lineup for game time. If you don’t get your question in before the weekly post, have no fear…you can still ask me on social media if you’d like. With Wes Welker getting some extended time off, I’m sure you’re wondering who to pick up in his place…

Now we’re ready to start!

 

Jumbo Joe on Facebook “Witten or Gates and Stacy or McFadden?”

Let’s start with the TEs. Jason Witten and the Cowboys will open the season at home against a depleted 49ers defense. Regardless of whether or not defensive lineman Ray McDonald is suspended this week for his domestic violence charge, the 49ers are without inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (knee injury), defensive lineman Glen Dorsey (bicep injury), and defensive end Aldon Smith (9 game suspension). Both 49ers cornerbacks, Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver, are making their first opening day start and new safety Antoine Bethea is returning from a preseason concussion. This should be a great opportunity for Tony Romo and his targets. That includes Witten…On the other hand, Antonio Gates is on the road against a Cardinals defense that gave up the most points to tight ends last season. I think you have a good problem on your hands in Week 1, but also keep in mind Phillip Rivers has Ladarius Green as a TE option. Go with Witten knowing that Romo loves to throw his way and that his pass calls will be increased in the Scott Linehan system.

In regards to the RBs, with Sam Bradford going down (again), Zac Stacy becomes the most important player on the Rams offense. The Rams have a solid stable of running backs with Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason in the mix, but Stacy is the Rams’ feature back…Darren McFadden is an interesting case. We know McFadden has the ability to be a top end RB, but his injury history has proven him to be unreliable over the course of a season. The Raiders have him listed 2nd on the depth chart behind newly acquired Maurice Jones-Drew. While I think both RBs will get their fair share of touches, especially with a rookie quarterback at the helm, they are going against a Jets defense that was ranked 3rd against the run a year ago. Start Stacy against a Vikings D that gave up the 9th most fantasy points to running backs. 

 

Alberto Arreola on Facebook “Ellington or Murray? And Gronk or Olsen?”

In his 2nd year, Andre Ellington is being talked up as a possible breakout star by multiple Fantasy experts. In 15 games and 1 start last year, 1,023 total yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns (3 rush, 1 rec). He is a pass catching running back that will be depended on as the full-time guy for the Cardinals. But can he handle the increase in workload?…DeMarco Murray starts his contract year against the aforementioned depleted 49ers defense. Murray is a top 10 RB when healthy and should see a boost in his receiving stats with Linehan making pass calls. Linehan loves throwing to his running backs. Start Murray at RB but have Ellington available for your flex spot if your league has one. 

Rob Gronkowski says he’s ready to go for week 1for the Patriots, and if Gronk wants to football…Gronk will football (yes, that was intended in caveman voice). Some wonder how limited Gronkowski’s snaps will be, but if Tom Brady gets to the red zone, you know who his favorite target is…Greg Olsen is looking like one of the few reliable guys in Cam Newton’s passing attack and will be a test for Lovie Smith’s new Buccaneers defense. However, having seen the damage Gronk can do in Fantasy Leagues when healthy, start him. 

Andrew Hirt on Facebook “Andy Dalton or Ben Roethlisberger”

These are a pair of AFC North quarterbacks who proved to be fairly comparable last year in terms of yardage and TD/INT ratio. Andy Dalton faces a tougher pass defense on the road in Baltimore than Ben Roethlisberger does at home against Cleveland. Dalton has AJ Green. Roethlisberger has Antonio Brown. My heart says Dalton but my head says Roethlisberger at home. 

 

Emmet Fairfield on Facebook “For a W/R/T spot: P. Harvin, Chris Johnson, or Fred Jackson…League is .2 PPR, 1 pt per 20 punt return yds, and otherwise standard.”

I’m glad you mentioned you are in a PPR league. I’d like to ask everyone else to distinguish the same when submitting questions this season…I like the combo you have for your flex spot but I think one of them stands out the most in Week 1. I see Chris Johnson really getting a chance to shine with the Jets but to start he’ll be a part of a running back-by-committee system with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. RBs also didn’t catch many passes in Marty Mornhinweg’s system last year with Geno Smith at quarterback…I think Fred Jackson will be a solid option down the stretch, but Week 1 is going to feature a lot more of a healthy CJ Spiller against the Bears. He may also lose carries to Bryce Brown in that crowded backfield…I think tonight will be a big one for Percy Harvin. You’ll get your return yard points from him, and he’ll be Russell Wilson’s primary target against a defense that ranked 4th giving up fantasy points to wide receivers last year. Start Harvin tonight, but don’t sleep on Johnson in upcoming weeks. 

 

Again if you still have Fantasy Football questions, feel free to Tweet @Mike_PiFF03.

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Fantasy Football Preview: AFC East

If there is one thing you can say about the AFC East, they know how to make headlines. Whether it’s bullying and abuse by teammates in Miami, Bon Jovi and Donald Trump vying for ownership in Buffalo, Rex Ryan saying something stupid in New York (but really New Jersey), or Tom Brady…being Tom Brady…it’s a division that gets people talking.

On the football field though, it’s been all Patriots. Since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, they have won the division 11 times (in 13 years). The rest of the division will try to prevent New England from winning their sixth straight division title in 2014, but we’re more concerned with who will make your fantasy team better.

 

Buffalo Bills

The Bills haven’t had a winning season since 2004 and they have finished 6-10 each of the last 3 seasons. Second year head coach Doug Marrone’s squad ranked 2nd in rushing last season, 2nd in defensive interceptions, and 4th against passing, but struggled mightily to put points on the board. The Bills hope to change that with their new receiver additions and keeping EJ Manuel healthy. Good luck, Buffalo.

 

QB EJ Manuel

11 TD/9 INT, 1,972 pass yards, 186 rush yards 2 rush TD in 2013 (10 games)

Many were surprised when the Bills chose EJ Manuel before any quarterback in the 2013 NFL Draft. Going 16th overall, the Florida State quarterback was the ONLY one at his position selected in the first round. Those who followed Manuel in college weren’t surprised based on his combination of size, speed, and arm strength, but knee injuries and accuracy issues still plagued him in his rookie season. The Bills run a no-huddle offense (much like Philadelphia’s) that is dependent on the running game and quick hitting passes downfield. Manuel has two new talented receivers in rookie Sammy Watkins and former Buccaneer Mike Williams to make it work. Watkins and Williams have bigger catch radiuses that should help Manuel execute, as long as he stays healthy.

Recommendation: You hope a full offseason gave Manuel time to work on his accuracy but I’m more concerned with his knee injuries. He’ll have a chance to dispel that concern, but let him do that on the waiver wire. If you have a deep bench, MAYBE pick him in the last round.

 

RB CJ Spiller

933 rush yards, 2 TD / 33 rec, 185 rec yards, 0 TD in 2013

CJ Spiller led the league’s 2nd best running team in yardage but struggled to find the end zone. That has been the story for the 9th overall pick from 2010 in his Buffalo tenure. Being great between the 20’s doesn’t necessarily translate to points for a player, but sometimes does for someone else in the backfield (see Fred Jackson next down). Spiller, while still playing 15 games, also dealt with an ankle injury that could have been a cause for his drop in production from 2012 (1,244 rush yards, 6 TDs, 43 rec, 459 rec yards). He only had 5 less carries but averaged 4.6 yards per as opposed to 6.0. On top of the motivation for 2014 being a contract year, Spiller can benefit from the addition of Watkins to stretch the field and take pressure off the front for him to run on. Spiller also likes the Bills’ added running back depth of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon to ease his workload.

Recommendation: Have you learned your lesson yet, sports fans? Every year, Spiller’s potential gets him over-drafted in most leagues. DON’T DRAFT ON POTENTIAL. Spiller’s ceiling has always been high but how often has he reached that in 4 seasons? He is a solid RB2 for his value and should go in middle rounds.

 

RB Fred Jackson

890 rush yards, 9 TD / 47 rec, 387 rec yards 1 TD

The veteran running back out of Coe College goes into his 8th season with a new contract extension, which he signed right before training camp. Despite dealing with a knee injury, Jackson played in all 16 games and gained 1,277 yards from scrimmage, his 3rd best total of his career. Jackson’s 10 touchdowns made him Buffalo’s only real scoring threat in 2013. He’ll still split carries with Spiller but the extension shows that the Bills are committed to the 33-year old back and expect Jackson to be just as reliable.

Recommendation: Jackson is traditionally a solid waiver wire pickup for Fantasy owners. While his total production was better than Spiller’s last year, Spiller is still the #1 back. The potentially improved passing game is also more beneficial to Splitter. Jackson is better served to round out your draft.

 

WR Sammy Watkins

101 rec, 1,464 rec yards, 12 TD at Clemson in 2013*

The Bills went all in trading for Sammy Watkins. To select him 4th overall, Buffalo dealt their 9th overall pick in 2014 and their 1st and 4th round picks in 2015. Will Watkins be the difference that makes Marrone’s offense work? Since the NFL merger (the beginning of the Super Bowl era), just 12 rookie receivers have gained over 1,000 yards and only 5 scored 10+ touchdowns. If Manuel can lead him consistently, if defenses are zeroed in on Spiller, and if Mike Williams can draw coverage, Watkins can do it…That’s only 3 of the Ifs right there.

Recommendation: Watkins has the potential to be a very special player in the NFL. But again, DON’T DRAFT ON POTENTIAL. A lot of his success is going to depend on what his quarterback can do. If you have your heart set on Watkins, take him late. (Note: I drafted Alshon Jeffery with my last pick and we saw how that worked out, right?)

Waiver Watch:

RB Bryce Brown 

WR Mike Williams

WR Robert Woods

TE Scott Chandler

 

Miami Dolphins

Is there a seat hotter in the NFL than head coach Joe Philbin’s? Rex Ryan, maybe, but he has too much “cushion” to feel it. We’ve exhausted the bullying narrative enough and how irresponsible Philbin was handling it, so let’s focus on football. The Dolphins finished 8-8 last season and then replaced offensive coordinator Mike Sherman with Eagles QB coach Bill Lazor to improve the 7th worst scoring team in 2013. In order for the Dolphins to get better, they’ll probably want to keep their starting quarterback off his butt.

 

QB Ryan Tannehill

24 TD/17 INT, 3,913 pass yards, 238 rush yards 1 TD in 2013.

The 2012 draft is always talked about as the one that produced Andrew Luck, Robert Griffen III, and Russell Wilson. Often overlooked is Ryan Tannehill, who was selected 8th overall out of Texas A&M. Tannehill also threw for more yards than any of the quarterbacks mentioned previously in 2013, and more touchdowns than both Luck and Griffen. Tannehill doubled his touchdown pass total from his rookie year, but was sacked more than anyone in the league (58) and by a lot. His new OC, Lazor, has brought the Chip Kelly system to Miami. That means faster tempo, quicker passes, and more athletic linemen to keep Tannehill protected. But it will really depend on the rest of his teammates buying into the new system.

Recommendation: Tannehill is a solid QB2 for your roster. He’s going very under the radar so you should be able to get him late.

 

RBs Knowshon Moreno & Lamar Miller

Moreno: 1,038 rush yards, 10 TD / 60 rec, 548 rec yards, 3 TD in 2013

Miller: 709 rush yards, 2 TD/ 26 rec, 170 rec yards

Knowshon Moreno BROKE OUT in 2013. In his 5th season, Moreno ranked 4th among running backs in rushing touchdowns (tied with Adrian Peterson) and accumulated 1,586 total yards from scrimmage. How much of that success, though, was thanks to Peyton Manning? The Broncos were the highest scoring team in the NFL, got in the end zone early and often, forced defenses into pass coverage, and then would hand it off to the running back for the rest of the way. Regardless, the Dolphins thought highly enough of Moreno to sign him in hopes he would improve a running game that ranked near the bottom in 2013. Many assumed Moreno was already penciled in as the starting running back. Not Lamar Miller.

Miller took the signing as a challenge and has proven so in offseason workouts and camp. Moreno has been dealing with a hamstring injury and Miller has seized the opportunity. The former Miami Hurricane rushed for 709 yards in his sophomore season last year, but sees himself putting up LeSean McCoy-like numbers in the new system…or is trying to shape his game that way. While Miller ran for more than 60 yards 8 times last season, he was held under 10 yards 4 times. McCoy never rushed for less than 38 in 2013.

Recommendation: People will overdraft for Moreno. Don’t be one of them. Competition at a position is great for a team, but not necessarily for Fantasy. Since Moreno has proven it, he can be an RB2 but keep an eye out for Miller for that “McCoy potential”. Draft him late.

 

WR Mike Wallace

73 rec, 930 rec yards, 5 TD in 2013

Mike Wallace was supposed to be the big free agent addition for the Dolphins last year. He may be poised to be better utilized in 2014. Wallace seems to have bought into Lazor’s system and is being moved all over the field to put him and the team in the best position to succeed, much like how DeSean Jackson was used by the Eagles in 2013. It will be interesting to see how that game planning will effect fellow receiver Brian Hartline, who had much of the same production as Wallace a year ago.

Recommendation: Will Wallace be Lazor’s D-Jax? He could, but don’t draft him high without knowing for sure. Pick Wallace in the mid-late rounds. He could at least be a strong flex.

 

TE Charles Clay

69 rec, 759 rec yards, 6 TD

The converted fullback emerged as a Top 10 tight end in 2013. Charles Clay was listed 2nd on the Dolphins depth chart before Dustin Keller’s preseason knee injury. Then he caught 10 passes for 163 yards in the first two weeks of the regular season and never looked back. Clay ranked 7th among TEs in receptions, 9th in yards, and 8th in touchdowns. Unfortunately Clay has missed most of the preseason due to a knee injury, but says he’ll be ready to go by the season opener.

Recommendation: After the top end scoring tight ends come off the board, there’s a significant drop off in fantasy scoring. You can wait till mid-late rounds to draft Clay.

 

Waiver Watch

WR Brian Hartline

RB/WR/KR Marcus Thigpen

TE Dion Simms

 

New England Patriots

Bill Belichick is looking for his 12th divisional championship in his Patriots tenure. Belichick has also NEVER cared about your fantasy stats. If you’ve ever had a Patriots running back on your team, you know this. The Patriots ranked 3rd in scoring last year, 7th in offensive yardage, and 8th in turnover ratio (+9). The production is there, but the question will be where it comes from.

 

QB Tom Brady

25 TD/11 INT, 4,343 pass yards in 2013

Tom Brady saw a decline in his numbers last season after throwing 34+ touchdowns each of the previous 3. The 37 year-old 9-time pro bowl quarterback was inconsistent week-to-week when it came to scoring for fantasy owners. Brady could go blank in the TD category against the Jets one week, and then throw 4 against the Steelers. Some blame Brady’s age and arm strength. Others blame the lack of talent and experience supporting him. Belichick’s commitment to the running game had a lot to do with it as well. In the final two weeks (your post season), fantasy owners had to look elsewhere for quarterbacks because all Brady was doing was handing off to his running backs. Brady could bounce back having a full year with his young receivers, and if Gronk and Amendola stay healthy…which is no sure thing. But one thing is; Brady still wins games. He had 5 comeback wins in the 4th quarter in 2014, 3 of which came in row weeks 11-13 (7 TD/2 INT, avg. 101.3 QB rating)

Recommendation: Brady is still a winner and a franchise quarterback, but he isn’t a top 5 Fantasy QB. Because there are so many questions of where the production will come from for New England this season, don’t take him until the Top 5 QBs come off the board.

 

RB Stevan Ridley

773 rush yards, 7 TD / 10 rec, 62 rec yards 0 TD

Stevan Ridley seemed to break out in 2012, running for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also stood out as THE guy in the backfield getting 290 carries, nearly 100 more than Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Brandon Bolden combined. After issues securing the ball arose, Ridley saw his playing time, carries, and yardage split with LeGarrette Blount. Blount is now backing up Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh, but Ridley isn’t in the clear at all when it comes to the Patriots depth chart. He caught a case of the fumbles in the recent preseason game against the Eagles, and 4th round pick James White out of Wisconsin is showing potential of being an all-around starting back. That is the other knock on Ridley’s game. He isn’t a dependable pass catcher like White can be and like Vereen has been in the Patriots system. In limited action, Vereen caught 47 passes for 427 yards last season.

Recommendation: Whoever is in the backfield for Tom Brady in the red zone has a great chance of scoring. The theme though may be Men at Work’s “Who Can It Be Now?” If you intend to draft Ridley, make him your flex with RB2 potential. White may be someone worth looking at to close out your draft.

 

WR Julian Edelman

105 rec 1,056 rec yards, 6 TD, 374 return yards in 2013

If one thing is clear going into the 2014 season, I think it’s that Julian Edelman is Tom Brady’s guy. With the departure of Wes Welker, Edelman reaped all the benefits playing in all 16 games and ranking 4th in receptions among receivers. With rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson unable to catch the ball early on and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski injured, Edelman HAD to be the guy. His returning skills also add a dynamic that set him apart as a Fantasy option. With the addition of former Panthers WR Brandon LaFell and the returns of Gronk and Amendola, Edelman may see less targets, but can you depend on the latter two to stay healthy?

Recommendation: While I don’t think Edelman is as polished a receiver or as dependable as Welker, I do think he is Brady’s security blanket…especially in quick hitting no-huddle drives. Edelman may not be the big time scoring threat, but he will get the catches in between the 20’s. He’s graduated from a waiver wire watch to a WR2 for your roster.

 

TE Rob Gronkowski

39 rec, 4 TD, 592 yards in 2013 (7 games played)

Rob Gronkowski started playing in full team drills for the first time this week after undergoing surgery for a torn ACL January 9th. Gronkowski had been held out of contact drills until now, but plans to play in all 16 games this season. The last time Gronk played a full season (2011,) he led the league in touchdown receptions with 17. Before 2013, he recorded at least 10 touchdowns in each season of his career. Even when Gronk was limited to 11 games in 2012, he scored 11 touchdowns. When right, Gronk is one of the best red zone options in the game. That, plus his injury history, should make anyone cautiously optimistic in 2014.

Recommendation: The injury history does scare me with Gronkowski but then I look at those 2011 numbers. I don’t think he’s going to go for 1,300 yards again but Gronk is a viable option after Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, and Julius Thomas. Just be sure you draft a solid backup for him.

 

Waiver Watch:

RB James White

RB Shane Vereen

WR Danny Amendola

WR Brandon LaFell

WR Kenbrell Thompkins

TE Michael Hoomanwanui

 

New York Jets

Before the two tenants of MetLife Stadium meet for their annual preseason game, rookie running back Andre Williams told New York writers, “I think the Giants are the real New York team.” You wouldn’t think a head coach going into his 6th season would take the comments of another team’s newly drafted 4th round pick to heart, but of course Ryan did. “Last time I saw him he was getting smoked by Clemson,” Ryan responded. “I have a funny feeling he’s going to get some Riddells [helmets] on him.” Almost as thin as Ryan’s skin was the Jets offense last season that ranked nearly last in scoring.

 

QB Geno Smith

12 TD/21 INT, 3,046 pass yards, 366 rush yards, 6 rush TDs in 2013

Geno Smith didn’t have the smoothest rookie season starting all 16 games in 2013. He did, however, win the final 3 to get the Jets to .500 for the season. Smith did so by utilizing his mobility, averaging 6 yards per carry and scoring 3 touchdowns on the ground in the last quarter of the season. Smith looks to improve his passing game still after throwing multiple interceptions in 7 games last season. Michael Vick was brought in for competition and for having history with Jets OC Marty Mornhinweg (formerly of Philadelphia), but Smith seems to have locked down the starting role for New York.

Recommendation: I don’t expect Geno Smith to be drafted in most leagues, but keep an eye on his progress during his sophomore season. If QBs starting going down, Smith could be in demand.

 

RB Chris Johnson

1,077 rush yards, 6 TD / 42 rec, 345 rec yards, 4 TD in 2013

After 6 seasons with the Tennessee Titans, Chris Johnson needed a change in scenery. The 3-time pro bowler and one time 2,000 yard rusher joins a running back group that ranked 6th on the ground last season. He blames the decline in his production on the way he was handled the last two seasons saying the Titans offense was “too predictable.” Johnson, who has home run ability, won’t be doing all the heavy lifting in New York as they do plan to use a running back-by-committee strategy. The hot back out of Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Bilal Powell will be the one who plays more in Mornhinweg’s system.

Recommendation: The committee strategy is an annoying one for fantasy owners. Johnson is the back with some hardware and game changing ability, so he should be the first of the Jets RBs to go…but not until late.

 

WR Eric Decker

87 rec, 1,288 yards, 11 TD in 2013

There is no doubt Eric Decker’s best seasons had something to do with Peyton Manning being his quarterback. His production nearly doubled when he started hearing “Omaha!” at the line of scrimmage, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a talented receiver. The Jets signed Decker to be their #1 option for Geno Smith to throw to, but he has dealt with injuries during camp that have kept him out of practice. Decker is confident he’ll be fine for the season health-wise, but two questions linger. Will his new young quarterback be able to get him the ball? And will the other receivers draw double coverage away from him like his teammates in Denver did?

Recommendation: I really don’t have a lot of faith in the Jets’ passing game. And as mentioned prior, there was a much more talented corps in Denver that helped Decker get open. He is still the best option downfield for Smith, and is more valuable to be drafted in later rounds, low end WR2/Flex option.

Waiver Watch:

QB Michael Vick

RB Chris Ivory

RB Bilal Powell

WR David Nelson

TE Jeff Cumberland

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Fantasy Football Preview: NFC EAST

The beauty of Fantasy Football is that it forces you to pay attention to the rest of the league, no matter how casual a fan you may be. You could be wearing a Bears jersey at a bar somewhere, but deep down you want them to put on the Patriots game to see who Tom Brady is throwing to on his next 80 yard drive. Very likely, there are plenty of others in the same vicinity with the same concerns. Fantasy Football brings people together like that.

It is that time of year again. Most sports news publications and outlets are releasing their NFL season previews before kickoff, September 4th between the Green Bay Packers and defending champion Seattle Seahawks. What’s more pressing than that? Your league’s Fantasy Draft! Who do you take when Drew Brees and Peyton Manning come off the board? Can Jamaal Charles repeat last year’s performance? Do you really need a second kicker on your Week 1 roster?

With a series of posts over the next week, I hope to help you answer those questions and many more. We’ll take a look, division by division, at the players you may be targeting on each NFL squad. Coast to coast, we’ll evaluate players by past performances and their current situations with various factors: coaching and personnel changes, health, team philosophies, etc.

 

We’ll begin with the NFC East (ESPN’s FAVORITE!)

The division was about as unpredictable as Tony Romo in the 4th quarter in 2013. While the Dallas Cowboys were 8-8 again, the division’s top two teams in 2012 (Redskins and Giants) became the bottom two in 2013. Rising past the mediocrity were the Philadelphia Eagles and first year NFL coach Chip Kelly going from 4th to 1st in the East.

Throw out the records, we’re talking about Fantasy! The NFC East is a fun mix of sure-thing top end picks, players to be weary of, and some you’ll want to take a flyer on. Lets go!

 

Dallas Cowboys

For 3 seasons under coach Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have just been…meh. Finishing 8-8 each of those seasons doesn’t give those faithful to “America’s Ex-Team” more than cautious confidence for 2014. The Cowboys did rank 6th in scoring last year while having to play catch up with a defense that allowed 27.4 points per game, and for Fantasy owners (who don’t have Dallas’ defense) that’s not a bad thing.

 

QB Tony Romo

31 Touchdowns/10 Interceptions, 3,828 passing yards in 2013

Tony Romo had a bounce back year by the numbers last season. He reprised his same 2011 TD/INT ratio and cut the turnovers down significantly from 2012. However, the fear is that his second back surgery may effect the deep ball which became the bread and butter with home run threat Dez Bryant. Romo showed he can keep up with the best (when right), throwing 5 TDs in a shootout with Detroit. He also never threw more than 2 INTs in a game and only did that twice. Former Lions OC Scott Linehan is now the “passing coordinator” in Dallas and that could mean more throwing for Romo. Matthew Stafford averaged 42 passes per game coached by Linehan while Romo threw just 36 per during those 3 years.

Recommendation: Romo is a reliable QB1, a pick you would make late 2nd round or 3rd if you are targeting RBs or skilled players first.

 

RB DeMarco Murray

1,121 rush yards, 9 TD rushing / 53 receptions, 350 rec yards, 1 TD in 2013

The former heir to Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma is looking to make another big stride in 2014. DeMarco Murray ranked 5th among running backs last season averaging 80.1 ypg and 5.2 per carry. Fighting a knee injury in the middle of the season, Murray played 14 games and the Cowboys want to know if he can go the full 16 before extending him. Linehan’s play-calling may help that, as well as Fantasy owners in PPR leagues. With the potential increase in passing for Romo, Murray will be a key target much like Reggie Bush was last season for Detroit. If Bryant is getting the respect he deserves down field, Murray should find opportunities in underneath routes…and softer fronts to run on.

Recommendations: Murray CAN be a strong RB1 but his injury history worries me just as much as it does the Cowboys front office. Take him in the middle rounds unless RBs are flying off the board early and you’re desperate. 

 

WR Dez Bryant

93 rec, 1,233 yards, 13 TD in 2013

Dez…Bryant…The #1 weapon for Tony Romo last season had as much TV time on the sideline as he did on the field (thanks to FOX Producers). Expect that to continue, as the emotional receiver is now being applauded by his owner for fighting with teammates during training camp. But that’s not why you called…Bryant is coming off back-to-back seasons of 90 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He also scored multiple TDs on 3 different occasions (vs. SD, DEN and DET). Granted they were losses but with the Cowboys defense giving up points, Romo trusts Bryant to score in a hurry. This is also a contract year for Bryant, and you know how pro athletes get when they are looking for that next pay bump…

Recommendation: Bryant is a WR1 and should be one of the first 5 WRs off the board. Early round pick. 

 

TE Jason Witten

73 rec, 851 yards, 8 TDs in 2013

There is a reason Jason Witten is 9 time Pro Bowl tight end. He will likely surpass 900 receptions for his career this season and he was Romo’s most reliable target 7 of the past 8 seasons (110 catches in 2012). The Cowboys saw a drop in his production last season. 3 times, he caught over 100 yards but those games seemed to come randomly. 9 out of his 16 starts, Witten didn’t break 60 yards and only 6 times did he make 5 catches or more. Much like the running backs, the Linehan offense is designed to improve those numbers for tight ends too, especially in the red zone. Lions TEs caught 9 touchdowns last season, and Witten should bounce back with the other options demanding coverage.

Recommendation: Witten is definitely a starting Fantasy TE, but you can get him mid-late rounds. The position has evolved to where there are increasing options ahead of him.

 

K Dan Bailey

Yes, kickers are people too. But don’t expect me to spend too much time on them. Dan Bailey is effective when he plays in a dome regularly, his offense was 6th in scoring last year, and he converted 93% of his FGs. He ranked 12th in FGs made but 4th in extra points kicked. Take the points where you can get them.

Recommendation: You know when to take your kicker. He’ll be there for you after your fellow league-mates start taking them too early.

 

Waiver Watch: (Players to keep an eye out for on the wire)

RB Lance Dunbar

WR Terrance Williams

WR Cole Beasley

 

New York Giants

Starting 0-6 last season didn’t help the Giants. Neither did 23 turnovers during that span. The Giants would win their next 4 and finish the season 7-9, but they’ll have their work cut out for them in 2014. Coach Tom Coughlin brought on former Packers QB coach Ben McAdoo to run his offense and hopes that will help right the ship…and Eli Manning

 

QB Eli Manning

18 TD/27 INT, 3,818 passing yards in 2013

There isn’t a nice way to put it. Eli Manning was bad last year. Really bad. The last time he threw nearly as many INTs (25 in 2010), he at least threw 31 TDs and led the Giants to 10 wins. Manning led the league in INTs by 5 (Flacco with 22). In McAdoo’s system, Manning will be expected to get the ball out quicker and lead an up tempo offense that will keep defenses on their heels, much like San Diego and New England to an extent. Manning will be without TE Brandon Meyers and his 47 catches last season, now in Tampa Bay. The total number of receptions in 2013 by the current group of TEs on the roster (Kellen Davis, Larry Donnell, Adrian Robinson, Daniel Fells and Xavier Gimble) is 7.

Recommendation: If you take Eli Manning, take him late. Would be worth taking the flyer on the 3-time Pro Bowler if he can get back to that form. 

 

RB Rashad Jennings

733 rush yards, 6 TDs / 36 receptions, 292 receiving yards 0 TDs in 2013

The Giants look to Rashad Jennings to handle the top of their depth chart at running back. The team’s leading rusher, Andre Brown (492 yards), is now in Houston. David Wilson has unfortunately retired due to neck problems after 2 seasons in the league. And Jennings has never been a full-time feature back for an entire season. In 8 starts though last season, Jennings took over for the oft-injured Darren McFadden and gained over 1,000 yards of total offense from scrimmage.

Recommendation: Since he is the projected starting running back, Jennings is an RB2 that you can take late in your draft.

 

WR Victor Cruz

73 rec, 998 yds, 4 TDs in 2013

A concussion and a knee injury cut Victor Cruz’s season short last year after 14 games. Going into his 5th season with the Giants, the hope is that Cruz can still take it to the house from anywhere on the field. He will be depended on like Jordy Nelson is in the Packers offense. Quick slants, screens, and the likely handful of bombs downfield that put Cruz and his cha-cha dance on the map will be in the game plan to stretch the field. The plays are designed to utilize Cruz’s burning run after-the-catch ability.

Recommendation: Pair Cruz with one of the Top 15 receivers on the board and you could be sitting pretty. He would be a strong value pick in the middle rounds.

 

Waiver Watch:

RB Peyton Hillis (Note: Dealing with injured foot but listed as 2nd RB)

RB Andre Williams

WR Reuben Randle

WR Odell Beckham Jr.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the most improved teams last season will look to stay a step ahead of opposing defenses in year 2 of the Chip Kelly regime. Kelly’s hurry-up offense had the Eagles 2nd in yards per game (417.2), 4th in points (27.6) and winning a division title after finishing last the year before. While the Eagles released a scoring weapon in DeSeasn Jackson, they add two more playmakers in Darren Sproles via trade and Jeremy Maclin returning from injury.

 

QB Nick Foles

27 TD/2 INT, 2,891 passing yards / 221 rush yards, 3 TD in 2013 (13 games)

In 2 seasons, Nick Foles has 16 starts under his belt. He went 1-5 his rookie year and 8-2 in 2013. Foles also led the league in quarterback rating (119.2). The difference? Maybe Chip Kelly. 2014 will really be the judge of that as defensive coordinators across the league try to slow down Foles and his Eagles targets. Both the running backs are dangerous in the passing game, especially after the catch. And the deep threat tandem of Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin will make safeties nervous. However, an emphasis has been made on better protection of the quarterback which seemed to be an issue that plagued Foles’ predecessor, Michael Vick.

Recommendation: Yes, Foles had incredible numbers last season but it was still a limited sample size. Some believe he deserves the next big contract but I’m not sold yet. Draft your running back and maybe an elite pass catcher before drafting Foles.

 

RB LeSean McCoy

1,607 rush yards, 9 TD / 52 rec. 539 rec yards, 2 TD in 2013

2,000 Yards. Rushing…That’s the bar LeSean McCoy has set for himself this season by tweeting Thursday morning, “This is THE YEAR!!!! My potential is #2000yards. Will I reach it? Stepping up my training and signs point to yes.” He broke the 2,000 yard mark combining his rushing and receiving. Why not do it ALL on the ground? Only 6 other running backs have done it before him: Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson, and OJ Simpson. The only concern is staying healthy. Last season was the first time McCoy played all 16 games and he led the league in carries (314).

Recommendation: The argument is between McCoy and Jamaal Charles for top running back, but McCoy should be the first to come off the board. I trust the Eagles offense to move the chains and stay on the field more than Kansas City.

 

RB Darren Sproles

220 rush yards, 2 TD / 71 rec. 604 rec yards / 449 return yards in 2013

Darren Sproles joins the Eagles not just as a complimentary back to McCoy, but also a versatile option at Kelly’s disposal. He’ll catch passes out of the backfield, split wide, and take some handoffs as well. Don’t be surprised to see Sproles get significant time on the field with McCoy when the Eagles are in rhythm…or when Kelly is feeling frisky. 2013 was a down year for Sproles and he fell out of favor with Saints head coach Sean Payton. Keep in mind Sproles set the NFL record for all-purpose yards in a season (2,696) in 2011. He has also caught at least 70 passes in each of the last three seasons.

Recommendation: Sproles has described his role with the Eagles as “dangerous” and I believe it. When RB2’s start going, pick him up to at least be your flex, especially if you’re in a PPR league. Should be counted on for return yards too.

 

WRs Riley Cooper & Jeremy Maclin

Cooper: 47 rec, 835 yards, 8 TD / Maclin: DNP in 2013

Riley Cooper started 15 of the 16 games he played last year and saw his production more than triple from the year before. For that, the Eagles rewarded him with a 5-year $25 million contract. Despite his racist remarks before the 2013 season, the Eagles committed to him and not DeSean Jackson. The majority of Cooper’s production came after Foles was named starter, and during the stretch of weeks 6-10. Some expect Cooper to be counted on to make up for Jackson’s 82 receptions and 1,332 yards from 2013, but I would look to Jeremy Maclin first.

Maclin missed 2013 after tearing his ACL. Before then, he was averaging 863.25 yards per season and played in at least 15 games 3 of those 4 seasons. The 6-foot speedster from Mizzou will look to bounce back and has a more proven track record than Cooper to be a #1 receiver for this Eagles squad.

Recommendation: I wouldn’t look to draft either receiver until later rounds. You can’t depend on potential for something more than a WR2 or Flex player. I also trust Maclin for production ahead of Cooper, recognizing the injury history.

 

Waiver Watch:

TE Zach Ertz

TE Brent Celek

K Alex Henery

 

Washington Redskins

While the Eagles went from 4th to 1st in the division, the Washington Redskins did the complete opposite. Redskins were near the bottom in scoring last year and gave up the second most points in the league. Not a recipe for success. Jay Gruden took over the helm in Washington for Mike Shanahan. The Bengals ranked 6th in total offense last season with Gruden’s play calling and 8th in passing.

 

QB Robert Griffin III

16 TD/12 INT, 3,203 passing yards, 489 rush yards in 2013

2013 was messy for RGIII. He was rusty and a lot less mobile following his knee surgery in the offseason before. After constant clashes with Shanahan, Griffin found himself on the bench for the final 3. Gruden has worked on communication with his quarterback in hopes to replicate the offense he had in Cincinnati along with Griffin’s running ability. Griffin will likely see less zone-read called but will be even better in play-action with a healthy knee and his new toy, DeSean Jackson.

Recommendation: I have a hard time deciding how much of 2013 was on RGIII or Shanahan. Griffin came off very immature off the field, which makes me weary of him on the field and with a first time head coach. Not top tier, but the healthy knee gives him value in the middle rounds.

 

RB Alfred Morris

1,275 rush yards, 7 TD in 2013

Alfred Morris has totaled 2,888 rushing yards in his first two seasons and quietly. In his rookie year, his 1,613 yards were overshadowed by the success of his quarterback, yet ranked 2nd in the league. Morris doesn’t catch passes out of the backfield, but he does run hard. Look for Gruden to depend heavily on Morris at the start of the season while the rest of the offense adjusts to his new playbook.

Recommendation: Alfred Morris is a Top 10 running back right now. No Shanahan also means no platooning either. You can take him by round 3.

 

WR Pierre Garçon

113 receptions, 1,346 yards, 5 TDs

While 2013 wasn’t a good year for Washington, it was a great one for Pierre Garçon. He led the league in receptions and targets, and ranked Top 10 in total yards. That’s a heck of an accomplishment considering the direction the NFL is going in, being a passing league. However, that success didn’t translate into points and part of that blame can be put on Griffin. The addition of another 1,300 yard receiver should open things up nicely for Garçon in 2014 though.

Recommendation: The reception numbers should drop a little with Jackson commanding a chunk of the targets. Still a solid WR2 with WR1 potential.

 

WR DeSean Jackson

82 rec, 1,332 rec. yards 9 TD

Jackson had easily his best statistical season receiving last year, yet the Eagles felt it necessary to release him. The backfire may be letting him sign in the division with a chip on his shoulder. Washington couldn’t be happier. Jackson provides speed that they haven’t had in a long time, and a healthy Griffin is going to have downfield choices between him and Garçon.

Recommendation: Much like Garçon, Jackson is a solid WR2 with WR1 upside. The difference will be his returner capabilities, if Gruden chooses to use them.

 

Waiver Watch:

RB Roy Helu

WR Santana Moss

WR Aldrick Robinson

TE Jordan Reed

K Kai Forbath

 

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